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2010 Median Draft Position (MDP) - Updated 3/25/10

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Re: 2010 Median Draft Position (MDP)

Postby B-Chad » Mon Dec 21, 2009 8:46 pm

ayebatter wrote:Ok, I see a problem with moving B.Anderson much lower/higher than the 200's, this guy has a nice arm, but he pitched 175 innings last year, after only throwing 120/110 minor league innings in 2007/08, that's one hell of a jump in my book. I'm thinking that he'll be lucky to toss 150 this year and avoid injury doing it. What do ya'll know that I don't, talk to me.


I think assuming injury is a bit of a huge conclusion to jump to. While it wouldn't be the first time a young pitcher with a significant innings jump got hurt, it also wouldn't be the first time one didn't. He actually threw better and harder as the season went along last year, so I'm not as concerned with the potential for injury as some perhaps. Regardless, I think he throws between 175-200 innings next year, and considering his K potential and his GB rate making the big jump he did last year, any progress he makes as a pitcher this year could really make him awesome :-L
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Re: 2010 Median Draft Position (MDP)

Postby rookies and cream » Mon Dec 21, 2009 9:39 pm

flloyd wrote:
Inukchuk wrote:
Grounded Polo wrote:If Ted Lilly is there at 169, I'll be drafting him every time and smiling just like last year.

VMart at 22 is pretty high, would pass.


Good ol' sample size of 2... I'm sure a lot of those things will fall in line once RnC gets his hands on a few more rankings.


Not sure that's a fair assessment. For MDC at least it's based on hundreds of mock drafts. Even if it is then distilled to a single number that number still has a very large sample size behind it. With the exception of players switching teams, getting injured, gaining/losing starting jobs and some "sleepers" creeping up I would imagine that these rankings will be a fairly stable from this point forward. Sure as more sources are added some of those sites will have some varying assessments but I doubt that they'll be too far off.


While I would agree with this (for the most part), you'd be surprised how much things can change.

Miguel Tejada - 84.21 on 12/13 vs. 154.21 on 4/1
Chris Davis - 107.25 on 12/13 vs. 67.21 on 4/1

There are plenty of other examples, but these 2 were the most striking, other than players that got hurt or became closers. I'm going to keep track of movement again and will post further analysis as things unfold.
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Re: 2010 Median Draft Position (MDP)

Postby swyck » Sat Dec 26, 2009 9:45 am

Ricky Nolasco at 107. This is surprising and a bit disappointing as I was hoping he would be going a whole lot lower then this. He had a lousy season but still had great peripherals and I'm thinking he's a big time sleeper, but it doesn't look like he's going to fly under the radar at least for now.

IMO his MDP will drop by ST maybe by a lot. I'm guessing people who are taking part in early mock drafts may be the type to look beyond the main stats. It should be interesting to see where his final MDP is.
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Re: 2010 Median Draft Position (MDP)

Postby rookies and cream » Sat Dec 26, 2009 11:14 am

swyck wrote:Ricky Nolasco at 107. This is surprising and a bit disappointing as I was hoping he would be going a whole lot lower then this. He had a lousy season but still had great peripherals and I'm thinking he's a big time sleeper, but it doesn't look like he's going to fly under the radar at least for now.

IMO his MDP will drop by ST maybe by a lot. I'm guessing people who are taking part in early mock drafts may be the type to look beyond the main stats. It should be interesting to see where his final MDP is.


It also depends on where the individual sites rank players as this largely determines their ADP/MDP. The fact that Nolasco is ranked 41 over at CBS (behind players like Floyd, Wolf, Jurrjens, and Dempster) suggests that his ADP there will be lower, thus bringing down his overall MDP (unless CBS represents a substantial outlier). Guess we'll have to wait and see where ESPN and Yahoo rank Nolasco to get a better idea.
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Re: 2010 Median Draft Position (MDP)

Postby DbacksRback » Sat Dec 26, 2009 1:34 pm

swyck wrote:Ricky Nolasco at 107. This is surprising and a bit disappointing as I was hoping he would be going a whole lot lower then this. He had a lousy season but still had great peripherals and I'm thinking he's a big time sleeper, but it doesn't look like he's going to fly under the radar at least for now.

IMO his MDP will drop by ST maybe by a lot. I'm guessing people who are taking part in early mock drafts may be the type to look beyond the main stats. It should be interesting to see where his final MDP is.


Im with you on this one...after his drop to the Minors he came back and was a very solid pitcher for me. Im hoping he slips in more drafts next year as well
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Re: 2010 Median Draft Position (MDP)

Postby Ballpark Frank » Sun Dec 27, 2009 12:03 pm

The ESPN Top 200 was just updated on December 23rd, for those that are switching from football to baseball mode and looking for more early rankings:

http://sports.espn.go.com/fantasy/baseball/flb/story?page=offseasontop200

For the Nolasco fans earlier in the thread, ESPN currently has him #88 overall, fyi.
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Re: 2010 Median Draft Position (MDP)

Postby rookies and cream » Sun Dec 27, 2009 12:17 pm

Ballpark Frank wrote:The ESPN Top 200 was just updated on December 23rd, for those that are switching from football to baseball mode and looking for more early rankings:

http://sports.espn.go.com/fantasy/baseball/flb/story?page=offseasontop200

For the Nolasco fans earlier in the thread, ESPN currently has him #88 overall, fyi.


Well that's certainly not gonna help bring down his ADP/MDP.
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Re: 2010 Median Draft Position (MDP)

Postby fast dogs » Sun Dec 27, 2009 1:04 pm

that is Cockcrofts personal top 200 not what ESPN's site would have,Nolasco was # 169 on their player rater last year. That over 5 ERA has to scare some; Cockcroft also has Peavy @ 128, Weaver & Danks 132-133; that more what I'd expect to see Nolasco avg...
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Postby METS 24 » Thu Dec 31, 2009 3:53 pm

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Last edited by METS 24 on Sun Mar 21, 2010 1:40 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2010 Median Draft Position (MDP) - Updated 1/1/10

Postby rookies and cream » Fri Jan 01, 2010 7:46 pm

Updated ;-D

Happy New Year all.
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