B-Chad wrote:I always seem to be blown away every year looking at the early MDP's and how far off some players fall from where I'd personally rank them. The greatest instance I noticed in being neglected just glancing through the list is Brett Anderson at 225. I'll go out on a limb and say that when I take the time to compile a 5x5 list and where I have players ranked he'll be 75 or more spots higher.
Me, I'd love it if his MDP was around 225 by the time I'm drafting, which would mean he's probably mine.
The big question is how do you use this information? I expect this number to change but lets say it doesn't, his MDP remains at 225, and you have him ranked at 150. That would be about the 13th round in a 12 team league, while 225 would be 18th round. Do you try to stretch him out a few rounds and try to get him say in the 16th or 17th, play it safe with a 14th or 15th, or do you draft him where you like him in the 13th, assuming there are no higher rated players available from your list?
B-Chad wrote:I always seem to be blown away every year looking at the early MDP's and how far off some players fall from where I'd personally rank them. The greatest instance I noticed in being neglected just glancing through the list is Brett Anderson at 225. I'll go out on a limb and say that when I take the time to compile a 5x5 list and where I have players ranked he'll be 75 or more spots higher.
Me, I'd love it if his MDP was around 225 by the time I'm drafting, which would mean he's probably mine.
The big question is how do you use this information? I expect this number to change but lets say it doesn't, his MDP remains at 225, and you have him ranked at 150. That would be about the 13th round in a 12 team league, while 225 would be 18th round. Do you try to stretch him out a few rounds and try to get him say in the 16th or 17th, play it safe with a 14th or 15th, or do you draft him where you like him in the 13th, assuming there are no higher rated players available from your list?
I'd probably go with the 15-16 round, maybe even 14th. You may be able to let him drop a little bit more, but 18 would be the average meaning ~ half have him higher and half lower right. If you can identify these cases and take all your guys 1-2 rounds later that will be a nice advantage for you...
B-Chad wrote:I always seem to be blown away every year looking at the early MDP's and how far off some players fall from where I'd personally rank them. The greatest instance I noticed in being neglected just glancing through the list is Brett Anderson at 225. I'll go out on a limb and say that when I take the time to compile a 5x5 list and where I have players ranked he'll be 75 or more spots higher.
Me, I'd love it if his MDP was around 225 by the time I'm drafting, which would mean he's probably mine.
The big question is how do you use this information? I expect this number to change but lets say it doesn't, his MDP remains at 225, and you have him ranked at 150. That would be about the 13th round in a 12 team league, while 225 would be 18th round. Do you try to stretch him out a few rounds and try to get him say in the 16th or 17th, play it safe with a 14th or 15th, or do you draft him where you like him in the 13th, assuming there are no higher rated players available from your list?
I'd probably go with the 15-16 round, maybe even 14th. You may be able to let him drop a little bit more, but 18 would be the average meaning ~ half have him higher and half lower right. If you can identify these cases and take all your guys 1-2 rounds later that will be a nice advantage for you...
This is a fair assessment for sure. Something I'd weigh heavily is who is in the league I'm in. If it is a new league where I don't know the managers and their likes and dislikes or what criteria they may use for grading players from past team makeup... I'd probably gamble less and reach a bit more to take him very close to where I have the player ranked. Something else I'd look at (assuming the info is available like it is at Mock Draft Central) is the highest they were selected, and match that against where I have them ranked. For instance, Anderson's MDP may be 225, but his high might be 50 picks earlier at 150, and if I have him ranked as my 125th best player, I'll be sure to grab him before pick 150, likely the closest pick I hold before that selection. Now if I hold pick 152 or so, I might "push it," so to speak, I might not.
After the last few years of fantasy baseball, I've come to a solid conclusion, that some will agree with and others disagree likely: If you have a guy ranked significantly higher then their MDP when doing your player valuations going into the season, it is 100% worth it to reach some and assure you get that player. While that player won't always work out, I'd be much happier buying into them and having them fail and trusting my player evaluations, then passing on a player I had high expectations because I didn't want to reach 1-4 rounds and watching that player have a monster season on another owners' roster. Some of my greatest satisfaction in fantasy season's is winning with players I successfully pegged as breakout candidates. I tend not to go overboard, as I've seen some owners reach over and over again to try and hit a "homerun," so to speak, only to hit 1 out of 5 players and finish middle of the pack or worse. While it is satisfying, even gratifying to hit a breakout player, the name of the game is still winning.
B-Chad wrote:I always seem to be blown away every year looking at the early MDP's and how far off some players fall from where I'd personally rank them. The greatest instance I noticed in being neglected just glancing through the list is Brett Anderson at 225. I'll go out on a limb and say that when I take the time to compile a 5x5 list and where I have players ranked he'll be 75 or more spots higher.
Me, I'd love it if his MDP was around 225 by the time I'm drafting, which would mean he's probably mine.
The big question is how do you use this information? I expect this number to change but lets say it doesn't, his MDP remains at 225, and you have him ranked at 150. That would be about the 13th round in a 12 team league, while 225 would be 18th round. Do you try to stretch him out a few rounds and try to get him say in the 16th or 17th, play it safe with a 14th or 15th, or do you draft him where you like him in the 13th, assuming there are no higher rated players available from your list?
I'd probably go with the 15-16 round, maybe even 14th. You may be able to let him drop a little bit more, but 18 would be the average meaning ~ half have him higher and half lower right. If you can identify these cases and take all your guys 1-2 rounds later that will be a nice advantage for you...
This is where you have to know what kind of a league you are in. If you are in a free/public league you might be able to let him slip a round or two from where you have him ranked but if you are in competitive league with guys who are on top of things you can't gamble on letting someone like Anderson slip...because he won't.
Ok, I see a problem with moving B.Anderson much lower/higher than the 200's, this guy has a nice arm, but he pitched 175 innings last year, after only throwing 120/110 minor league innings in 2007/08, that's one hell of a jump in my book. I'm thinking that he'll be lucky to toss 150 this year and avoid injury doing it. What do ya'll know that I don't, talk to me.
ayebatter wrote:Ok, I see a problem with moving B.Anderson much lower/higher than the 200's, this guy has a nice arm, but he pitched 175 innings last year, after only throwing 120/110 minor league innings in 2007/08, that's one hell of a jump in my book. I'm thinking that he'll be lucky to toss 150 this year and avoid injury doing it. What do ya'll know that I don't, talk to me.
I agree he'll probably be a little overvalued because he's not likely going to pitch 200 and 190 is probably max but to just assume 150 is all he'll do and he'll probably get hurt in the process is going overboard. Sure, factor in that he had a pretty big leap from 1 year to the other but I'll still put him down for 180-190IP and doing it at relatively the same success level as last year until he proves otherwise.
Grounded Polo wrote:If Ted Lilly is there at 169, I'll be drafting him every time and smiling just like last year.
VMart at 22 is pretty high, would pass.
Good ol' sample size of 2... I'm sure a lot of those things will fall in line once RnC gets his hands on a few more rankings.
Not sure that's a fair assessment. For MDC at least it's based on hundreds of mock drafts. Even if it is then distilled to a single number that number still has a very large sample size behind it. With the exception of players switching teams, getting injured, gaining/losing starting jobs and some "sleepers" creeping up I would imagine that these rankings will be a fairly stable from this point forward. Sure as more sources are added some of those sites will have some varying assessments but I doubt that they'll be too far off.
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by Inukchuk » Mon Dec 21, 2009 3:00 pm 
but decided to go a different route.
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