Our keeper deadline is a ways away, but it seems that the MLB Winter Meetings have lighted the fire for deals in our league and I like to strike early.
I have a guy considering this deal: My Adrian Gonzalez for Dan Haren and Jason Bartlett.
Please, review the league setup carefully, since it skews value of certain types or players a bit. In particular OPS, QS-L, and the fact that we start 5 starters and 3 relievers each week make a big difference. It is my belief that all starters get a bump in value compared to more traditional leagues, hence the targeting of Haren. I'm looking to deal a 1B since I have a logjam there. As is, I'll end up keeping either A-Gon or Morales as a UTIL and I don't like the idea of losing so much roster flexibility going into the draft. Bartlett is a nice player and I'd like to keep someone like him given the position scarcity cocnerns of a 14 team keeper league, but other moves would have to happen first to justify keeping him.
Offensive Categories: BA, OPS, RBI, HR, SB and Runs Scored. (Start: C, 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, OF, OF, OF, UTIL) Pitching Categories: W, S, ERA, K/IP, Quality Starts minus Losses, and WHIP (Start: 5 SP, 3 RP) 6x6 weekly HtH 14 team roto keeper (between 5 and 10 keepers (no time limits or costs), losing a draft pick for each after 5)
My Keepers as they're shaping up: Adrian Gonzalez Kendry Morales Aaron Hill Kevin Youkilis Andre Ethier Adam Dunn (Free Keeper: Julio Borbon) Roy Halladay Jon Lester Javier Vazquez Joe Nathan ----------------- Bobby Abreu Joakim Soria John Lackey Michael Young
Bonus question: How do you like my keepers for next year? I'm not happy that I don't have any true 1st/ 2nd round talent, but overall I like the depth.
He'd Also do Morales for Ubaldo Jimenez and Bartlett (or maybe Alexei Ramirez)
I think Morales will be very good again next year, but he sees diminished value in this league thanks to a lower obp (.355), which could be hurt by a regression in BA predicted by his high babip. Again, I wouldn't be able to keep Bartlett unless a lot of other deals fall into place, so regard this as more of a 1 for 1.
My main concern with Ubaldo is not a regression; I think he's a burgeoning young stud. His problem could be losses (12 last year), which could kill a good deal of his value with our Quality Starts minus Losses statistic.
I wouldn't do the A-Gonz deal (especially since I believe he'll be out of hitters hell... I mean PETCO by ST or the trade deadline at the absolute latest), but I would do Kendry for Ubaldo and Bartlett. I wouldn't keep Bartlett unless you do some secondary juggling though, as you've said. I am a sucker for Ubaldo's improved control, high GB rate, and awesome K-rate. Wins and Losses are tough to project, but he should be a QS machine, and I could see him posting an ERA around 3.25-.3.40 with a 1.15-1.20 WHIP and 200+ K's, those would be awesome numbers. I also love the age and the number of innings he has under his belt. While I like Kendry, I do think his OPS will drop with some BABIP and consequently BA regression. He doesn't walk a ton, so his OBP will be lower then some 1B sluggers, it also gives you some flexibility as you discussed. I'd also give strong consideration to keeping Lackey over Nathan. I'm just so down on keeping relievers, even a stud like Nathan. I feel like if you are active and draft well, you can round up your 3 RP pretty easily. You'd definitely want to make it a priority in the draft early IMO, but Lackey has been so good pitching in the AL, he can literally sign anywhere and be successful, and if by chance he were to sign with say the Mets in the NL, his numbers could take a quantum leap forward. Just my two cents, hope they were of some assistance.
I'd also pass on the Gonzalez deal, especially in the case if he moves to a more favorable ballpark and/or a team with better lineup protection. You might be able to squeeze out better name value out of Kendry Morales, but Ubaldo isn't a bad fallback option either. Anyway, I'd look to shop Aaron Hill and Morales for any possible upgrades.