TULO at #13 overall?

[SecretAgentMan]

13th overall is too high or Tulo imo. I like him for next season, but not that high.

Take a safer bet (Howard, Longoria, or even Sizemore if they fall to 13) and stay away from riskier early picks like David Wright who suddenly now thinks he is Chone Figgins.

[MaudDib]

I wouldn't draft Howard at 12 if you are keeping him for 3 yrs. I'd rather have Upton personally - Howard's trends are discouraging and that first half is brutal on H2H. If you can nab Fielder then I'd take Longoria/Upton/Sizemore/Wright on the turn before I take Tulo. If Fielder is gone then I'd take two of the above.

This is all, of course, assuming Lincecum isn't there. Just my two cents.

Howards trends are EXCELLENT for h2h! who cares about the first half, get by, stay in the hunt.... he can single handedly carry your team when it counts! the second half and into playoffs....

I'd love longo, dont know if he'll be there, or wright, i really would like to have a big bat 1B either fielder or howard and then take an INFIELDER, ideally being a 3B.... I love grady, dont know if i want to take on his batting average, we count individual hits, singles, doubles, triples, HR's etc, so its key to get guys who will hit for average or at least thats my theory....

I'd love to take Lince there, and i think he might be, i just dont know if i can make myself take a pitcher in the first round! it just goes against everything i believe in! HAHA

I would also not select Howard at 12. In a keeper league like this you want the best talent at a younger age. Howard is in decline, just check some of his stats, and I would not want to be locked into a player like this for 3 years. Maybe he doesn't but it's not worth the risk. I am betting that the young talent goes early but if Upton, Wright, Longoria or Fielder are available then you have to take them. No questions.

[tribefan08]

Ya I'm really hoping Longoria falls I'd love to fill that 3B slot and lock him up as one of my two keepers for 3 yrs.

I do not understand some of the dislike for Howard though? Trending down?

I guess he is 30 and I'd own right to him until he's 33, but he's a LOCK for 45HR 140RBI's and a .260-.275 average?

Him and Prince are basically interchangeable. Prince is younger so i may lean more towards him. 2010 coming up he'll be in his prime for the next few years, 26 years old.

Plus his average is bound to be a little higher, which for my league i like.

HMMMM.... still iffy on TULO tho, some people say NO WAY, but if you dont get Hanley or TULO who is your SS?

Hanley, tulo, and Rollins will basically be gone by the time I pick in the 3rd?

I hate jeter. I dont trust Reyes.

?

[MaudDib]

First off Howard. Part of it is a gut feeling but if you look at his misc batting you can see some negative trends. Here is a link. http://espn.go.com/mlb/players/stats?playerId=6097 There is going to be a point where his bat is going to slow down and with the rate he K's, it will be hard for him to put up those numbers. He reminds me of David Ortiz expect that he K's a lot more. Ortiz's numbers weren't bad last season but he is no longer the hitter he was just a few years ago. Now I am not saying Howard isn't a good player but I wouldn't take him in round 1. If he fell to me in late round 2 then I would probably pull the trigger but I just don't think he will give you 1st round numbers.

As for Tulo, he isn't a bad option and there are few SS available. So I can see locking that up but I rarely see a team that drafts on position scarcity do well in the long run. You will be drafting someone with lesser numbers over guys who can help you more. Also Tulo is far from a sure thing. He had a nice year last year and I think he will be fine this year (I own him in a Dynasty league) but he doesn't have a good track record which means you will be taking a risk when there could be more sure things out there.

[tribefan08]

First off Howard. Part of it is a gut feeling but if you look at his misc batting you can see some negative trends. Here is a link. http://espn.go.com/mlb/players/stats?playerId=6097 There is going to be a point where his bat is going to slow down and with the rate he K's, it will be hard for him to put up those numbers. He reminds me of David Ortiz expect that he K's a lot more. Ortiz's numbers weren't bad last season but he is no longer the hitter he was just a few years ago. Now I am not saying Howard isn't a good player but I wouldn't take him in round 1. If he fell to me in late round 2 then I would probably pull the trigger but I just don't think he will give you 1st round numbers.

As for Tulo, he isn't a bad option and there are few SS available. So I can see locking that up but I rarely see a team that drafts on position scarcity do well in the long run. You will be drafting someone with lesser numbers over guys who can help you more. Also Tulo is far from a sure thing. He had a nice year last year and I think he will be fine this year (I own him in a Dynasty league) but he doesn't have a good track record which means you will be taking a risk when there could be more sure things out there.

I dont trust anything/info that comes from ESPN. They touted drew stubbs as the next Grady Sizemore.

I will say TULO did have a career type year (maybe). His track record is only a bit askewed because he was hurt last year so much (mainly his own fault). He's got the tools.

[raiders_umpire]

I would pass on Tulo at 13. There should be some combo of Longoria, Fielder, Upton, etc.

[tribefan08]

I would pass on Tulo at 13. There should be some combo of Longoria, Fielder, Upton, etc.

Longo/Fielder would be great. I love upton, love tulo, but you can't take them all....

[The Artful Dodger]

I can see why Tulowitzki is being drafted as a second rounder, but I find him a bit risky for my liking there, even if he deserves to be drafted as the second-best SS. I don't see him attempting as many SB swipes as he did (his success rate was OK at best) and it seems he traded a bit of line drives for more flyballs (hence, the marginal power spike). Expect the power to be there (<=30 HR), but I believe he's a tad overvalued.

I don't see either Fielder or Longoria lasting on the board at your turn, but I'd pounce on either. I like Justin Upton over Tulowitzki, FWIW, and he would be a serious consideration there.

As far as Howard goes, I'd say he's like Adam Dunn with an uptick in runs and RBI, as well as some upside of keeping his average above the .260 mark. Remember that he was a bit unlucky in '08 with his BABIP and still wound up with 48 homers. Even though his BABIP bounced back in '09, he managed 45 HR and still figures to be a 45-50 HR threat, even though he won't likely touch that 2006 career year.

[tribefan08]

ya its hard to tell in a 12 man league if i'll see fielder or longo, we've been playing for 9 years, good/competitive league, what its really going to come down to is our new format, as i mentioned a while ago, we're gonna sign to guys to 3 yr contracts, contracts follow them if they're dealt.... so getting younger guys is KEY, but then again i'm playing to win now/REPEAT as champ, not next year or in two years....

I think if someone takes Lince and Mauer in the first round i'll see a whole slew of players I want (i do not want either of them whatsoever). If those two go i could easily see fielder falling to me easily. Possibly longoria and wright. I do have a couple florida homers in the league, so longo will probably go early.

Fielder/Longo
Fielder/Upton
Fielder/TULO
Fielder/Wright

are all options I like.... If i can pull that off I like my start then i draft back to back again in the 3rd/4th rounds and I'd probably be thinking about YOUK or Zimmerman... Those guys are about the last 3B i'd want.

LOTSA DECISIONS.

[MaudDib]

Those aren't ESPN numbers, it's just his his player card from ESPN. If you don't want to see it on ESPN then check it out somewhere else. Maybe Fangraphs but when his BB/K, AB/HR, BB/PA, IsoP is all in decline it says something.