We get to keep 7 players for 4 more years in my 14 team 5X5 standard roto league.I was pretty well set on my 7 (Braun Kinsler A Ram McCutchen Cruz Verlander & Hamels) but now I'm wondering if I should think long term & look at whats best over the 4 years instead of whats best for my 2010. Sure I'll be playing with 6 keepers vs everyone else's 7 for a couple months, but it isn't that hard to find another OF for awhile till Heyward gets the call. Out of the box thinking or out of my mind?
Cruz will start the season at 29 and turn 30 on July 1. And he's only played well for about a season to a season and a half. He's not a bad player... but I don't think he's a candidate to keep.
Heyward is going to be 20, is the best hitting prospect out there and he plays for a team that isn't afraid to play a prospect early. I think there is a decent shot Heyward has a rookie season similar to Longoria... he may actually play a little more.
I'd keep Heyward... I'm not impressed by a 29 year old having his first good full season.
BoBtheMule wrote:Cruz will start the season at 29 and turn 30 on July 1. And he's only played well for about a season to a season and a half. He's not a bad player... but I don't think he's a candidate to keep.
Heyward is going to be 20, is the best hitting prospect out there and he plays for a team that isn't afraid to play a prospect early. I think there is a decent shot Heyward has a rookie season similar to Longoria... he may actually play a little more.
I'd keep Heyward... I'm not impressed by a 29 year old having his first good full season.
Bob
I like your rationale, but think there is almost no shot he plays as well as Longoria did his rookie year. That said, I could see Heyward hitting .290-.300 ish. I think he's got as good a shot as any impact rookie to get 450+ plate appearances. I don't think he'll hit more then 15-20 HR's max year one, as his power is still developing to some degree, and he'd be learning on the job at the Major League level. That said, 75-15-80 .295 sick from a 20 year old cutting his teeth in the Majors and would be useful. Considering he will likely be a stud for his last two years of your contract, that probably makes it worth keeping him over Cruz. Cruz is nice, has a good combination of power/speed, but his usage last year bugged me. He was allowed trully everyday AB's and was seated more then I'd like. The power/speed may be tantalizing, but the thought of a contributor this year in Heyward who should be improved year 2, and a stud year's 3-4 is probably too much for me to pass up for only a very good OF.
It was some of the posters here that got me thinking Heyward of an option vs Cruz as a keeper. You always hear well you can redraft him, but really there is only about a 1 in 14 chance he'd end up on my roster from the draft. If I lose by 10 HR this year, maybe its not a gamble that pays off, but this could be well worth the risk if everyones #1 hitting prospect comes thru right away
B-Chad wrote:Cruz is nice, has a good combination of power/speed, but his usage last year bugged me. He was allowed trully everyday AB's and was seated more then I'd like. The power/speed may be tantalizing, but the thought of a contributor this year in Heyward who should be improved year 2, and a stud year's 3-4 is probably too much for me to pass up for only a very good OF.
I agree that his usage last year was pretty annoying. However, the three players who were taking AB's away (Andruw Jones, Marlon Byrd, and Hank Blalock) are all expected to leave via free agency this year. So it's possible that he could be given full time AB's (or at least a greater share).
B-Chad wrote:Cruz is nice, has a good combination of power/speed, but his usage last year bugged me. He was allowed trully everyday AB's and was seated more then I'd like. The power/speed may be tantalizing, but the thought of a contributor this year in Heyward who should be improved year 2, and a stud year's 3-4 is probably too much for me to pass up for only a very good OF.
I agree that his usage last year was pretty annoying. However, the three players who were taking AB's away (Andruw Jones, Marlon Byrd, and Hank Blalock) are all expected to leave via free agency this year. So it's possible that he could be given full time AB's (or at least a greater share).
That said, I still like Heyward over Cruz.
Didn't Murphy cut into his PT some as well? You also have to remember that you may see a healthy Josh Hamilton this year as well. While I suspect with the losses of Jones, Byrd and Blalock he SHOULD see more AB's, I'm not 100% sure you will. Also don't forget Justin Smoak isn't far off the horizon either, and Julio Borbon will almost certainly be getting regular AB's starting right out of the gate this year. Overall, kind of a messy situation. Regardless, we are on the same page with keeping Heyward.
I think you have to look at Matt Wieters numbers last year as an a good bench mark for Heyward. If he does better than great but don't expect it. Saying that I think this is a decent option. Do you have to keep him for four years or is four the most you can keep him? I ask this because Heyward is no sure thing and could easily turn into a Brandon Wood type prospect. I would assume you can cut ties with him in a few years if you get something better so I would take the risk and keep him. When you keep that many players, I usually like to take a gamble on the unproven talent until I am keeping nothing but top 30 type players.
"In the beginning the Universe was created. This has made a lot of people very angry and has been widely regarded as a bad move."- Douglas Adams
He would not be locked in for 4 years if by some chance he didn't have a decent year. I wouldn't be doing this if Cruz was a sure thing, but right now he's my 7th best choice & I think I can gamble with him. thanks guys
I'm bringing this topic back now wondering if I'm being influenced by too much love for Heyward in these pages. Our league holds 98 players and Heyward wouldn't normally be drafted till what 150-160 at the earliest? I'm seeing Cruz being taken alot in the later 70's to early 90's range; even tho that B AVG bothers me. I also have a chance at getting a different player as my final keeper at a reduced cost by swapping draft picks. I'm not in love with Cruz, overpaying really for holding Heyward in a 98 keeper league.It would be somewhat risky & unconventional move to keep the #1 hitting prospect in this setup which isn't a big deal to me, but this would be my 3rd OF in 7 keepers. Wondering now if the right move is to keep neither 1 & look to trade a small deaft pick upgrade to a team that has too many keepers... clearer heads?
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by fast dogs » Mon Dec 07, 2009 1:44 am 
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