Keeper selections - 2 possibilities, WHIR

[Texas Flats]

Is it too early to start thinking about keepers? I've got a 5x5 H2H league, 10 teams, up to five players can be kept. As of right now, any keepers will be taken in rounds 1-5, so that's where I'm going to start. Barring any offseason trades, here's my roster, left untouched as of the last day of the season, along with the players' eligibility for this past year:

C - Miguel Montero (Ari)
1B - Mark Teixeira (NYY)
2B - Chase Utley (Phi)
3B - Ryan Zimmerman (Was)
SS - Troy Tulowitzki (Col)
OF - Justin Upton (Ari)
OF - BJ Upton (TB)
OF - Curtis Granderson (Det)
Util - Pablo Sandoval (1B, 3B) (SF)
B - Rajai Davis (OF) (Oak)
B - Chris Davis (1B, 3B) (Tex)
B - Mark DeRosa (1B, 2B, 3B, OF) (StL)
DL - Carlos Quentin (OF) (CWS)
DL - Grady Sizemore (OF) (Cle)

SP - Roy Halladay (Tor)
SP - Felix Hernandez (Sea)
RP - Jonathan Broxton (LAD)
RP - Matt Thornton (CWS)
P - Juan Gutierrez (RP) (Ari)
P - Kerry Wood (RP) (Cle)
P - Matt Cain (SP) (SF)
B - Homer Bailey (SP) (Cin)
B - Tim Hudson (SP) (Atl)

If we stick with our league settings and the first five rounds are reserved for keeper selections (we don't need to keep 5, we can keep less if we choose), who are my five keepers? I figure here, I have to narrow it down between Teixeira, Utley, Halladay, Sizemore, Hernandez, Tulowitzki, and Justin Upton, with the other guys as an outside possibility, but I wanted to see what you guys think.

There's also a movement among the league that's looking like it might pass (we need 60% league approval to amend the settings, and we're at 3 for and 1 against so far), that we're going to change the keeper selections so it's based on the round each player was drafted in last season. If players were kept the previous year, you lose your first round pick (then second, then third, etc). If the player was drafted, then you lose the round that player was drafted in. If you traded for a player, you lose the round your opponent drafted him in, and if the player was a FA or WW pick up, you lose a last-round pick (then next-to-last, etc). Same thing for the 2011 season, anyone I keep for 2010 will cost me a first round pick, and so on. But I'm not too concerned about 2011, I'm more concerned about a threepeat in 2010 . We already passed an amendment that expands rosters from 21 to 23 spots, if that makes any difference.

My keepers coming into this draft were Teixeira, Utley, Sizemore, Halladay and Aramis Ramirez (who I traded in a package for Felix Hernandez), so any of those four players still on my roster would cost me a first (then second, third and fourth) round pick. The guy I traded with to get Felix drafted him in the 8th round, and Broxton was my 10th round pick (I think he was, at least, I don't have the draft info in front of me), so they would cost me an 8th and 10th round pick, respectively. Zimmerman, Tulowitzki, Granderson, both Uptons, both Davises, and Sandoval were all FA or WW pick ups from various points in the year, so they would only cost me picks at the end of the draft.

If we do amend the settings and allow this, who would my keepers be? We still have time to think about it, but right now, I figure I'm looking at Utley (Rd 1), Teixeira (Rd 2), Hernandez (Rd 8), Tulowitzki (Rd 22) and Justin Upton (Rd 23). Would this be the right way to go, or do you guys have any other suggestions?

I will help in return, but I am in law school and finals are starting up next week, so any real responses I might be able to give might not be as in-depth as I'd like, and they may end up delayed a bit. I'm hoping to keep stopping by whenever I need a break from studying, but my visits might be kind of short, so I wanted to warn you in case my help isn't as useful as it should be. In a couple weeks when they're over, I should be able to spend a little more time here. Thanks for any input, I appreciate it.

[MaudDib]

Tex and Utley are both easy keeps. Felix at 8 and Upton at 23 are very nice value. Then I think I would go with Sizemore which I assume woul be a 3. I see Sizemore at 3 as a better value than Tulo at 22. Sizemore should give you 1st round value at a 3rd round price. Only other guy I might think about is Halladay but I don't like keeping SP so I would pass on him.

[raiders_umpire]

1B - Mark Teixeira (NYY)
2B - Chase Utley (Phi)
3B - Ryan Zimmerman (Was)
OF - Justin Upton (Ari)
DL - Grady Sizemore (OF) (Cle)




It definitely sucks to have to throw such talent away such as Felix and Upton, but this is your best 5 players if you have a regular keeper selection.

[Texas Flats]

Thanks for the input, guys. I just checked the draft results, and Broxton was a 14th round pick, not 10th, but I don't think it really makes much of a difference - I hate the idea of drafting relievers, I really only do it closer to the end of the draft, so I really can't see any situation where I'd be willing to keep them.

[fast dogs]

Sandoval in the rounds method might be too much to pass up.almost wonder if you shouldn't wait a year to implement new rules so everyone knows setup in advance; maybe it isn't that big of a factor if no 1 took advantage of that in last years trdaes

[mprice25]

Considering the possible draft changes I would keep

Sizemore
Tex
Halladay
Cain
Sandoval

viewtopic.php?t=398236

[Texas Flats]

I had a thought earlier, and now that we just got our 6th vote to change the keeper selection to the round the player was drafted, I figured it's worth asking. The draft is going to be a snake draft, and although we won't know for a couple weeks what the draft order is (it'll be done by lottery), odds are I'll get the last pick in round 1, which means I'd get the first pick in the second round. If that's the case, then assuming everyone keeps at least one player they kept last year (it looks like it'll be that way, looking at the rosters), could it be worth the gamble to, say, only keep one of Teixeira/Utley, and instead keep a guy like Sandoval in the last round and just nab up my guy at the beginning of round 2? Or is that too risky (or somehow unethical?)

Like I said, we've got plenty of time to think about this, we're not going to be drafting until sometime in March, but now since it's fresh in my mind, I wanted to mention it.

[fast dogs]

I'd think the guy who took Reyes last year would prefer to throw him back in the draft; so he'd have a 1st round pick. Assuming everyone keeps 1 player doesn't get you the 1st pick overall if your league works like most of these.You'd need everyone to keep their 1st rounder and there could be more that choose to keep later picks as opposed to their 1st rounder. However keeping Sandoval & hoping to get a similiar player to Teix in the 2nd might still be the way to go; but I think 1 of us is confused how this will play out...

[Texas Flats]

I'd think the guy who took Reyes last year would prefer to throw him back in the draft; so he'd have a 1st round pick. Assuming everyone keeps 1 player doesn't get you the 1st pick overall if your league works like most of these.You'd need everyone to keep their 1st rounder and there could be more that choose to keep later picks as opposed to their 1st rounder. However keeping Sandoval & hoping to get a similiar player to Teix in the 2nd might still be the way to go; but I think 1 of us is confused how this will play out...

Yeah, it's a tough call, so I've been taking a look at the rosters from last year. 2010 is our third year, so anyone who was kept for the 2009 season would cost a first-round pick in 2010. It looks like every team has someone that could be kept:

-Braun/Wright
-Howard/Santana
-Longoria (he's the guy with Reyes)
-Fielder
-A-Rod/Lincecum
-Hanley
-Pujols
-Miguel Cabrera/CC
-Crawford

Then we come to my team, which I've already listed. I'm still completely on the fence on it, but even if I only keep Utley and let Teixeira back into the draft, and one of these guys drafts Tex before my 2nd round pick, I'd be ok with most of these guys taking his place. Still a lot to consider, and I'm not planning on making a decision until closer to March, but there's no harm in getting an early start on it.

[Texas Flats]

Does Granderson's trade to NY have enough of an impact for me to reconsider keeping him, since he'll only cost me a last-round pick? I'm probably going to try to package him with someone else and ship him off to some overzealous Yankees fan, but I'm not sure what I should be expecting from him. If he's batting second like a lot of people are projecting, he could score a ton of runs, and with right field in Yankee Stadium playing like a little league field, is 30-35 homers asking a lot out of him?

edit: the amendment did pass, so we're going to be choosing keepers by round.