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Hall of Fame 2010

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Re: Hall of Fame 2010

Postby DaSh 1s » Fri Jan 08, 2010 5:27 pm

StlSluggers wrote:I still think offense is more important than defense.


And I believe so as well, which is why the WAR stat is useless to me. Unless you are clearly a subtraction to the big picture (like Miguel Cabrera at 3B or a Michael Young at SS), offense is held in a higher regard than defense.
B-Chad wrote:Pedroia's LD rate of 20% is reason to believe he'll maintain a higher BA then Cano. It should also be noted he hits more FB's then Cano, which means that even if he posts a lower HR/FB then Cano, he should come in reasonably close to Cano in HR's
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Re: Hall of Fame 2010

Postby Big Pimpin » Fri Jan 08, 2010 5:33 pm

DaSh 1s wrote:
StlSluggers wrote:I still think offense is more important than defense.


And I believe so as well, which is why the WAR stat is useless to me. Unless you are clearly a subtraction to the big picture (like Miguel Cabrera at 3B or a Michael Young at SS), offense is held in a higher regard than defense.


That's only true if you're speaking of the dumber organizations.

Take Boston, who you'd be hard-pressed to argue isn't one of the smartest organizations out there, where they let Jason Bay walk and instead signed Mike Cameron and Adrian Beltre. Clearly they hold offense in a much higher regard. ;-7
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Re: Hall of Fame 2010

Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Fri Jan 08, 2010 6:04 pm

Big Pimpin wrote:The cases where a player stands to be admitted to the Hall strictly based on his fielding would absolutely be rare. But it's possible. Ozzie Smith was 140 runs below replacement with the bat over his career. Of course he offset it by being a +82 baserunner and +214 fielder over his career, all while playing the most valuable position on the field. So basically, yeah, you have to be super-human. But we get one of those every once in a while. :-D


One quibble, because I'm bored. But, it's "double counting" to say that Ozzie was a "...+214 fielder, all while playing the most valuable position on the field." The first is a significant result of the second. You don't rack up those kinds of fielding runs playing right field. Once you've turned his performance in the field into runs, where it happened doesn't matter at all.
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Re: Hall of Fame 2010

Postby Big Pimpin » Fri Jan 08, 2010 6:14 pm

GotowarMissAgnes wrote:
Big Pimpin wrote:The cases where a player stands to be admitted to the Hall strictly based on his fielding would absolutely be rare. But it's possible. Ozzie Smith was 140 runs below replacement with the bat over his career. Of course he offset it by being a +82 baserunner and +214 fielder over his career, all while playing the most valuable position on the field. So basically, yeah, you have to be super-human. But we get one of those every once in a while. :-D


One quibble, because I'm bored. But, it's "double counting" to say that Ozzie was a "...+214 fielder, all while playing the most valuable position on the field." The first is a significant result of the second. You don't rack up those kinds of fielding runs playing right field. Once you've turned his performance in the field into runs, where it happened doesn't matter at all.


No, it's not. He was +214 when compared to all other shortstops. That's before the position adjustment. I mean yeah, he got more chances playing short than he would have playing right, so from that standpoint you're correct, but nowhere in those earlier numbers have I quantified the value of him playing the most valuable position on the field.
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Re: Hall of Fame 2010

Postby DaSh 1s » Sat Jan 09, 2010 9:47 am

Big Pimpin wrote:That's only true if you're speaking of the dumber organizations.

Take Boston, who you'd be hard-pressed to argue isn't one of the smartest organizations out there, where they let Jason Bay walk and instead signed Mike Cameron and Adrian Beltre. Clearly they hold offense in a much higher regard. ;-7


Boston lost a lot of offense, and Lackey starting every 5th day and a couple of good defenders isn't going to make a major difference, IMO.

Looking at the second half of last season, with Papi somewhat emerging from his suckitude, the removal of Lugo, Lowell coming around, Martinez replacing Varitek often and the pitching letting up 24 fewer runs, the Sox' run differential shrunk from +85 to +51.

Removing Bay and Lowell the SS du jour, and adding Scutaro, Cameron and Beltre is a big step down offensively.

2009:
Bay 134 OPS+
Cameron 111 OPS+
Lowell 106 OPS+
Beltre 82 OPS+


Now splits for the 09 Sox

One-Run Games
Split W L RS RA WP
One Run 22 17 179 174 .564

Blowouts (5+ Runs)
Split W L RS RA WP
Blowout 34 16 380 268 .680

^Do you see this numbers staying the same?

Bottom line is without a high run differential, I don't think they have a shot at the East, the offense is going to remain a problem. But anything can happen! Maybe more GM's should build their teams around WAR. Brewers shouldn't look to lock up Fielder but instead hope Gomez saves enough runs.


http://www.courant.com/sports/baseball/ ... 409.column
"The Red Sox won 95 games in 2009, so it's hard to say they'll win more games this year, but given the team's construction, they may be grittier."


I didn't even think it was possible for them to get any more gritty :-) :-b
Last edited by DaSh 1s on Sat Jan 09, 2010 10:14 am, edited 2 times in total.
B-Chad wrote:Pedroia's LD rate of 20% is reason to believe he'll maintain a higher BA then Cano. It should also be noted he hits more FB's then Cano, which means that even if he posts a lower HR/FB then Cano, he should come in reasonably close to Cano in HR's
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Re: Hall of Fame 2010

Postby DaSh 1s » Sat Jan 09, 2010 9:56 am

Big Pimpin wrote:No, it's not. He was +214 when compared to all other shortstops. That's before the position adjustment. I mean yeah, he got more chances playing short than he would have playing right, so from that standpoint you're correct, but nowhere in those earlier numbers have I quantified the value of him playing the most valuable position on the field.


Right, but the present WAR stat includes positional adjustments, which presents CF Gutierrez is more valuable to a team than a Youk, Teix, Miggy or any other 1B slugger. Its ridiculous, and over rates defense.
B-Chad wrote:Pedroia's LD rate of 20% is reason to believe he'll maintain a higher BA then Cano. It should also be noted he hits more FB's then Cano, which means that even if he posts a lower HR/FB then Cano, he should come in reasonably close to Cano in HR's
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Re: Hall of Fame 2010

Postby buffalobillsrul2002 » Sat Jan 09, 2010 5:26 pm

It's way more difficult to find a decent CF though than it is to find a decent 1B. That's why the positional adjustment is extremely important. In the case of a guy like Youkilis, who can play 3B and 1B, WAR probably underrates him a little because I'm guessing he gets a positional adjustment of something between a 1B and a 3B. But finding a 1B is relatively easy, which removes some of the value of even the best slugging 1B like Pujols, Fielder, Teixeira, etc....
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Re: Hall of Fame 2010

Postby Big Pimpin » Sat Jan 09, 2010 6:18 pm

DaSh 1s wrote:Bottom line is without a high run differential, I don't think they have a shot at the East, the offense is going to remain a problem. But anything can happen! Maybe more GM's should build their teams around WAR. Brewers shouldn't look to lock up Fielder but instead hope Gomez saves enough runs.


Funny you'd bring up run differential. I won't say it's worthless, because there's some value there, but it's extremely overrated, especially when you're attempting to judge the true talent level or performance of a team. Run scoring and prevention ends up being highly dependent on hitting/pitching with runners on and in scoring position, which is not a repeatable skill. So, when an offense performs better than normal with runners in scoring position, that leads to a higher run differential, which may cover up the true talent or actual results of a team.

For instance, the Mariners were extremely poor with runners in scoring position, which led to a much lower runs scored figure than they would have had otherwise. So their run differential suggested that they were like a 75 win team. Of course they won 85, which would lead some to say that they were lucky. But when you look at actual performance, either using BP's metrics (which are context neutral and/or adjusted for strength of schedule) or WAR, they pencil out to be a 82 or 83 win team. In a given season you're bound to have lucky (2009 Angels) and unlucky (2009 Rays) teams.

In any case, you've just suggested run differential as something that matters. Guess what's built into that? Run prevention! Creating and saving runs are equal! Last year, Bay was worth 20 combined (batting/fielding) runs above average (no position adjustment). Guess who was the same player playing center? Mike Cameron! He's likely to take a hit offensively moving to the AL, but if he simply took Bay's spot in left he's likely to be worth more defensively being measured against LFs instead of CFs. Boston SS combined to be about -20 combined runs, while Scutaro was +15. Going back to 2008 (since they were both healthy then), Lowell was +15 and Beltre was +19 (with a home park that suppresses his offense).

So even if you want to make the run differential argument, you've just lost it. :-D
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Re: Hall of Fame 2010

Postby Big Pimpin » Sat Jan 09, 2010 6:22 pm

DaSh 1s wrote:
Big Pimpin wrote:No, it's not. He was +214 when compared to all other shortstops. That's before the position adjustment. I mean yeah, he got more chances playing short than he would have playing right, so from that standpoint you're correct, but nowhere in those earlier numbers have I quantified the value of him playing the most valuable position on the field.


Right, but the present WAR stat includes positional adjustments, which presents CF Gutierrez is more valuable to a team than a Youk, Teix, Miggy or any other 1B slugger. Its ridiculous, and over rates defense.


The historical WAR stat includes positional adjustments as well. It would be ridiculous not to. Otherwise, you're making two claims that have no basis in reality. The first is that it's equally easy to find the same relative player at every position. That's clearly not the case. The second would be that if you were to take an elite fielding first baseman, he could move to shortstop and be an equally elite fielder. Of course that's also ridiculous.

Surely you're not claiming that Teixeira could move to center and be an average fielder there?
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Re: Hall of Fame 2010

Postby DaSh 1s » Sun Jan 10, 2010 12:17 pm

Big Pimpin wrote:
DaSh 1s wrote:Bottom line is without a high run differential, I don't think they have a shot at the East, the offense is going to remain a problem. But anything can happen! Maybe more GM's should build their teams around WAR. Brewers shouldn't look to lock up Fielder but instead hope Gomez saves enough runs.


Funny you'd bring up run differential. I won't say it's worthless, because there's some value there, but it's extremely overrated, especially when you're attempting to judge the true talent level or performance of a team. Run scoring and prevention ends up being highly dependent on hitting/pitching with runners on and in scoring position, which is not a repeatable skill. So, when an offense performs better than normal with runners in scoring position, that leads to a higher run differential, which may cover up the true talent or actual results of a team.

For instance, the Mariners were extremely poor with runners in scoring position, which led to a much lower runs scored figure than they would have had otherwise. So their run differential suggested that they were like a 75 win team. Of course they won 85, which would lead some to say that they were lucky. But when you look at actual performance, either using BP's metrics (which are context neutral and/or adjusted for strength of schedule) or WAR, they pencil out to be a 82 or 83 win team. In a given season you're bound to have lucky (2009 Angels) and unlucky (2009 Rays) teams.

In any case, you've just suggested run differential as something that matters. Guess what's built into that? Run prevention! Creating and saving runs are equal! Last year, Bay was worth 20 combined (batting/fielding) runs above average (no position adjustment). Guess who was the same player playing center? Mike Cameron! He's likely to take a hit offensively moving to the AL, but if he simply took Bay's spot in left he's likely to be worth more defensively being measured against LFs instead of CFs. Boston SS combined to be about -20 combined runs, while Scutaro was +15. Going back to 2008 (since they were both healthy then), Lowell was +15 and Beltre was +19 (with a home park that suppresses his offense).

So even if you want to make the run differential argument, you've just lost it. :-D


Hm, Kudos. You posts never disappoint and that is for sure. Still don't like the WAR stat though ;-)
B-Chad wrote:Pedroia's LD rate of 20% is reason to believe he'll maintain a higher BA then Cano. It should also be noted he hits more FB's then Cano, which means that even if he posts a lower HR/FB then Cano, he should come in reasonably close to Cano in HR's
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