Hall of Fame 2010 - Fantasy Baseball Cafe 2014 Fantasy Baseball Cafe
100% Deposit Bonus for Cafe Members!

Return to Baseball Leftovers

Hall of Fame 2010

Moderator: Baseball Moderators

Re: Hall of Fame 2010

Postby Tavish » Thu Jan 07, 2010 6:21 pm

Big Pimpin wrote:
Tavish wrote:
Big Pimpin wrote:
It's position adjusted. The baseline is the same.

Right, its position adjusted. That's why it doesn't judge absolute wins added, it judges wins added compared to replacement. WAR works when trying to determine value, which is typically more important. But it doesn't correctly value absolute wins.


Oh I see what you're saying. I may have gotten a little loosey-goosey using "wins" in my response... I don't think you can actually calculate raw wins.

You can see the non-position adjusted figures at FanGraphs.
2009 Batting + Fielding Runs
Teixeira - 40.1
Youkilis - 41.7
Gutierrez - 35.4

A win is roughly 10 runs so there are the raw wins.
Image

Bury me a Royal.
Tavish
Mod in Retirement
Mod in Retirement

User avatar
CafeholicFantasy ExpertCafe WriterCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterEagle EyeCafe SpotterWeb Supporter
Posts: 11070
(Past Year: 25)
Joined: 3 May 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: Hall of Fame 2010

Postby Big Pimpin » Thu Jan 07, 2010 6:29 pm

DaSh 1s wrote:
I just said that I believe he contributed more wins last year than any of them. That's a statement I stand by, as it's borne out by actual events that transpired during the season, which I believe all players should get credit for.


It is a statement you stand by, because you simply look at WAR values and determine them to be true! You stand by your statement because of the heavy belief in the accuracy of UZR!


I don't "simply" do anything. If you think that I blindly follow WAR without the understanding of how it's built, what it stands for, and how it correlates to actual team wins, then you're grossly mistaken. I also don't heavily believe in the accuracy of UZR. It's one of the best and it's easy to use, but I look at a bunch of different defensive metrics - +/-, PMR, Total Zone, even the Fan's Scouting Report. If there are major discrepancies then it's usually a good idea to weight multiple metrics and multiple years together, especially if you're looking to gauge true talent level and project next year. But when they all agree, you just might be on to something. :-D


DaSh 1s wrote:
The positional adjustments are:
+1.0 wins C
+0.5 SS/CF
+0.0 2B/3B
-0.5 LF/RF/PH
-1.0 1B
-1.5 DH

These are needed so that an average fielding 1B is not valued the same as an average fielding SS.


I guess its just me, but I just really despise the WAR stat. 2009 Franklin (OPS+ 103) being more valuable than Youk (OPS+ 145), Miggy (OPS+ 142), and Teix (OPS+ 149) simply because he played CF and they played 1B? It's laughable at this point.

Ben Zobrist created the most wins of any player last year?

Blasphemy! I don't dis-credit the WAR stat, its only use to me is to support other facts, not to be the core argument.


It's funny you think it's laughable, because guess what? The guys who've created most of the saber numbers are out there working in one form or another for smart major league teams. I've heard both the Boston and Seattle front offices reference UZR and WAR and the very same numbers that are available publicly if you only take the time to understand them. It's not your fault you overrate offense, most people do. All counting stats that matter are offensive, so why wouldn't you think that it's more important? But it's not. And OPS and OPS+ are not the end-all, be-all either. You can throw out an OPS+ of 149, but it means absolutely nothing unless you can map it to runs and then wins.

And it's pretty simple why I focus on wins. If you're attempting to build a baseball team, they are literally the only thing that matter. The goal of any GM is to find wins and add them to your team in the most cost effective way possible.
Big Pimpin
Mod in Retirement
Mod in Retirement

User avatar
EditorCafeholicFantasy ExpertCafe WriterCafe RankerGraphics ExpertMock(ing) DrafterEagle EyeWeb SupporterMatchup Meltdown ChampionPick 3 Weekly WinnerLucky Ladders Weekly Winner
Posts: 13710
(Past Year: 4)
Joined: 20 Apr 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Building a metric. And being ignorable and stupid.

Re: Hall of Fame 2010

Postby Big Pimpin » Thu Jan 07, 2010 6:33 pm

Tavish wrote:
Big Pimpin wrote:
Tavish wrote:Right, its position adjusted. That's why it doesn't judge absolute wins added, it judges wins added compared to replacement. WAR works when trying to determine value, which is typically more important. But it doesn't correctly value absolute wins.


Oh I see what you're saying. I may have gotten a little loosey-goosey using "wins" in my response... I don't think you can actually calculate raw wins.

You can see the non-position adjusted figures at FanGraphs.
2009 Batting + Fielding Runs
Teixeira - 40.1
Youkilis - 41.7
Gutierrez - 35.4

A win is roughly 10 runs so there are the raw wins.


I don't think that's true though, because you're still measuring against something. Batting runs are measured against average hitters and fielding runs are measured against average fielders at your position. That's runs above something, not runs above nothing. It looks like runs above some sort of bastardized "average".
Big Pimpin
Mod in Retirement
Mod in Retirement

User avatar
EditorCafeholicFantasy ExpertCafe WriterCafe RankerGraphics ExpertMock(ing) DrafterEagle EyeWeb SupporterMatchup Meltdown ChampionPick 3 Weekly WinnerLucky Ladders Weekly Winner
Posts: 13710
(Past Year: 4)
Joined: 20 Apr 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Building a metric. And being ignorable and stupid.

Re: Hall of Fame 2010

Postby Neato Torpedo » Thu Jan 07, 2010 6:40 pm

DaSh 1s wrote:
Big Pimpin wrote:He absolutely did. It's not even a question in my mind. But that doesn't mean I would expect (or project) him to outperform them again next year.


If you think Franklin was more valuable than Youk, Teix, and Miguel Cabrera last year than I really don't know what to say anymore. .767 OPS compared to three 900 OPS and greater players. Franklin's defense added more value than ~200 points of OPS?

Don't get me wrong his defense was stellar last year but the WAR formula without a doubt over rates defense. UZR fluctuates year to year and assumptions can't be made base on one year of UZR/150, or even two years. Franklin does appear to be a very high-end defensive player and its held up across multiple ballparks, so we cannot do something like blame Fenway Park for messing with LF stats. There is no denying that.

While his UZR output for 2009 produced a high rating, you are still only factoring one year of UZR into the 2009 WAR calculation. With a one year stat so volatile feeding into the output, I simply can't put much faith in arguments that use the WAR calculation as their basis. Simply because they use one year of defensive metrics for their calculations, and conclusions can't be drawn on a single year of Def Metrics.

Calculations aside, without a doubt he adds a huge amount of value with his defense. Is he better than Kevin Youkilis? I don't believe so. Teix and Youk are primarily regarded as elite defenders with their positions. UZR doesn't take into account 1B's job of receiving the ball, and how well they do it. That's why I compared Franklin to 1B.

Well, there's two things that come into play when interpreting statistics. There's how well a player did in a given year, and then there's the predictive values. When you're saying that Gutierrez "was better than [player] last year", that's just measuring what happened. However, single year values (especially for UZR, like you said) aren't very good predictors of future data. For example, Tulo put up better stats than Alex Rodriguez last year, meaning he performed better if we're looking at 2009 in a vacuum. However, given the other circumstances, there is no reason to state that Tulo is a better player than Rodriguez. Do you see the difference here?

Gutierrez' total numbers were as good as the elite hitting 1Bs last year. The elite hitting 1Bs are better players, and they have a higher value coming into '10 because their numbers were in a category that has more predictive consistency. Why would we incorporate Gutierrez 2008 UZR into his 2009 performance? Sure, if you're gauging a player's skill or predicting his future performance, then it's better to look at three year averages, but if you're just isolating what a player did in one particular year, then you just use the stats from that year.
Image

Rocinante2: you know
Rocinante2: its easy to dismiss the orioles as a bad team
ofanrex: go on
Rocinante2: i'm done
Rocinante2: lmao

Play Brushback Baseball! (we need more people)
Neato Torpedo
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
EditorCafeholicFantasy ExpertCafe WriterCafe RankerWeb Supporter
Posts: 8618
Joined: 4 Mar 2007
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: we don't burn gasoline, we burn our dreams

Re: Hall of Fame 2010

Postby DaSh 1s » Fri Jan 08, 2010 10:10 am

^No I agree, maybe I worded it wrong. I just think his stellar defensive numbers feed to much into the WAR output.
B-Chad wrote:Pedroia's LD rate of 20% is reason to believe he'll maintain a higher BA then Cano. It should also be noted he hits more FB's then Cano, which means that even if he posts a lower HR/FB then Cano, he should come in reasonably close to Cano in HR's
DaSh 1s
Major League Manager
Major League Manager

User avatar

Posts: 1893
(Past Year: 1)
Joined: 1 Aug 2007
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: Hall of Fame 2010

Postby Big Pimpin » Fri Jan 08, 2010 12:24 pm

DaSh 1s wrote:^No I agree, maybe I worded it wrong. I just think his stellar defensive numbers feed to much into the WAR output.


Just for Gutierrez or for others as well? Do Zimmerman and Longoria and Crawford get too much credit for being exceptional fielders? Do Dunn or Betancourt or Hawpe get too much "credit" for being terrible? The formula for WAR is easy, it's batting runs plus fielding runs plus an adjustment for position. There's absolutely no evidence that suggests a run scored is worth more than a run saved, so what's the reasoning that defense should count for less?
Big Pimpin
Mod in Retirement
Mod in Retirement

User avatar
EditorCafeholicFantasy ExpertCafe WriterCafe RankerGraphics ExpertMock(ing) DrafterEagle EyeWeb SupporterMatchup Meltdown ChampionPick 3 Weekly WinnerLucky Ladders Weekly Winner
Posts: 13710
(Past Year: 4)
Joined: 20 Apr 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Building a metric. And being ignorable and stupid.

Re: Hall of Fame 2010

Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Fri Jan 08, 2010 2:17 pm

Big Pimpin wrote:I think a player's offense would only count for more if he was a relatively better or worse (on average) with the bat. If you take Pujols, he's simply an above average fielder but the best hitter on the planet, so it stands to reason that his offensive contribution would be weighted more heavily. That's going to be true of most players that aren't exceptional (or exceptionally terrible) fielders. But there's still value to be found in defense, and in certain cases I think a player's merits can stand on his defensive prowess.

So I agree that in general offense contributes more to a player's eventual contribution, I just don't think it's any more important than what he does with the glove. :-D


It's hard for me to conceive of very many players who would be so outstanding in the field that they would rack up enough defense to offset an average or below average offensive contribution. Fangraphs data only goes back to 2002 and you can only currently sort based on the last three years. But, even using a three year sample, there are only three players among the top 35 in total runs above replacement who have fielding runs that are more than 50% of their batting runs--Zimmerman (39 Batting, 38 fielding), Rollins, (31 and 22) and Figgins (32 and 21). Even Ichiro, an outstanding fielder, had more than twice as many batting as fielding runs. Even if you look at Ichiro since 2002, he's got almost twice as many batting as fielding runs (154 to 86). (I should say I'm ignoring catchers here, because we don't really have good defensive metrics for them yet)

To think about a case for him to be a Hall of Famer based primarily on his fielding, suppose we maintained that 86 fielding, but cut his hitting contribution to 40. That would mean he averaged a batting contribution of 5 runs above replacement during the 8 years from 2002-2009. That's not a Hall of Famer, even at that level of excellent fielding.

Alternatively, suppose you reversed those two, and he had 150+ fielding runs. That's almost 20 fielding runs every year for all 8 of those years, a number he's only reached once in real life. He'd have to be a super-human fielder to do that over a career.

So, theoretically, sure, it could happen. But, we should only expect it to happen very rarely, because offense is a much more important part of a position player's contribution. But, I guess I could agree to drop the "important" and just say it's more of his contribution :)
"I don't want to play golf. When I hit a ball, I want someone else to chase it."
GotowarMissAgnes
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
Fantasy Expert
Posts: 5516
Joined: 12 Dec 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Happy Valley

Re: Hall of Fame 2010

Postby Big Pimpin » Fri Jan 08, 2010 2:28 pm

GotowarMissAgnes wrote:It's hard for me to conceive of very many players who would be so outstanding in the field that they would rack up enough defense to offset an average or below average offensive contribution. Fangraphs data only goes back to 2002 and you can only currently sort based on the last three years. But, even using a three year sample, there are only three players among the top 35 in total runs above replacement who have fielding runs that are more than 50% of their batting runs--Zimmerman (39 Batting, 38 fielding), Rollins, (31 and 22) and Figgins (32 and 21). Even Ichiro, an outstanding fielder, had more than twice as many batting as fielding runs. Even if you look at Ichiro since 2002, he's got almost twice as many batting as fielding runs (154 to 86). (I should say I'm ignoring catchers here, because we don't really have good defensive metrics for them yet)

To think about a case for him to be a Hall of Famer based primarily on his fielding, suppose we maintained that 86 fielding, but cut his hitting contribution to 40. That would mean he averaged a batting contribution of 5 runs above replacement during the 8 years from 2002-2009. That's not a Hall of Famer, even at that level of excellent fielding.

Alternatively, suppose you reversed those two, and he had 150+ fielding runs. That's almost 20 fielding runs every year for all 8 of those years, a number he's only reached once in real life. He'd have to be a super-human fielder to do that over a career.

So, theoretically, sure, it could happen. But, we should only expect it to happen very rarely, because offense is a much more important part of a position player's contribution. But, I guess I could agree to drop the "important" and just say it's more of his contribution :)


I completely agree. Your last sentence is exactly what I was trying to say. Most players will definitely have more offensive contribution than defensive contribution, I just don't like saying one is "more important" than the other. :-)

The cases where a player stands to be admitted to the Hall strictly based on his fielding would absolutely be rare. But it's possible. Ozzie Smith was 140 runs below replacement with the bat over his career. Of course he offset it by being a +82 baserunner and +214 fielder over his career, all while playing the most valuable position on the field. So basically, yeah, you have to be super-human. But we get one of those every once in a while. :-D
Big Pimpin
Mod in Retirement
Mod in Retirement

User avatar
EditorCafeholicFantasy ExpertCafe WriterCafe RankerGraphics ExpertMock(ing) DrafterEagle EyeWeb SupporterMatchup Meltdown ChampionPick 3 Weekly WinnerLucky Ladders Weekly Winner
Posts: 13710
(Past Year: 4)
Joined: 20 Apr 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Building a metric. And being ignorable and stupid.

Re: Hall of Fame 2010

Postby StlSluggers » Fri Jan 08, 2010 5:11 pm

I still think offense is more important than defense.
StlSluggers
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicCafe WriterMock(ing) DrafterWeb Supporter
Posts: 14716
Joined: 24 May 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Parking in the gov't bldg @ 7th and Pine. It's only $3.00 on game day!

Re: Hall of Fame 2010

Postby Big Pimpin » Fri Jan 08, 2010 5:17 pm

StlSluggers wrote:I still think offense is more important than defense.


You would. Image
Big Pimpin
Mod in Retirement
Mod in Retirement

User avatar
EditorCafeholicFantasy ExpertCafe WriterCafe RankerGraphics ExpertMock(ing) DrafterEagle EyeWeb SupporterMatchup Meltdown ChampionPick 3 Weekly WinnerLucky Ladders Weekly Winner
Posts: 13710
(Past Year: 4)
Joined: 20 Apr 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Building a metric. And being ignorable and stupid.

PreviousNext

Return to Baseball Leftovers

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 8 guests

Forums Articles & Tips Sleepers Rankings Leagues


Today's Games
Friday, Oct. 24
(All times are EST, weather icons show forecast for game time)

Kansas City at San Francisco
(8:07 pm)

  • Fantasy Baseball
  • Article Submissions
  • Privacy Statement
  • Site Survey 
  • Contact