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2B Rankings for 2010

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Re: 2B Rankings for 2010

Postby Curtis Pride » Thu Dec 03, 2009 3:55 pm

Cano has much more power, a better park, a better lineup surrounding him. Roberts is starting to decline.

But you ignore my point. The three are so close that it's worthless to waste much effort ranking the three of them. Just wait and take the last of them.
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Re: 2B Rankings for 2010

Postby DaSh 1s » Thu Dec 03, 2009 4:02 pm

Curtis Pride wrote:Cano has much more power, a better park, a better lineup surrounding him. Roberts is starting to decline.

But you ignore my point. The three are so close that it's worthless to waste much effort ranking the three of them. Just wait and take the last of them.


No, was just asking your reasoning because I agree with the ranking of those three as well. I'd move Phillips ahead of Uggla however though.

I am sitting Uggla/Phillips in most drafts. Unless that tier falls to the fourth roundish. I'd rather take the best player on the board available in the 3rd round than start picking by positions.
B-Chad wrote:Pedroia's LD rate of 20% is reason to believe he'll maintain a higher BA then Cano. It should also be noted he hits more FB's then Cano, which means that even if he posts a lower HR/FB then Cano, he should come in reasonably close to Cano in HR's
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Re: 2B Rankings for 2010

Postby B-Chad » Fri Dec 04, 2009 12:36 am

Curtis Pride wrote:Steal for next year will be Dan Uggla.

If you look at his peripherals, his K rate is declining, while his BB rate is improving. He had some hellish bad luck, and I think he puts up a .280/30/100 next year and will end up a top 5 2b.



While I think Dan Uggla will be a great value next year... I think you are overstating it. There is almost no way he hits .280 next year. He hit .282 in a rookie season in which his k-rate was 20.1% and his BABIP was .312. Last year his K-rate was 26.6% ,a great improvement from '08 when it was 32.2%... but actually worse then his 26.4% K-rate in '07. In 2007 Uggla posted a .286 BABIP, so he did have some bad luck, but he still only hit .245 with the biggest culprit being that he struck out in just over a quarter of his AB's. Uggla does have a growing LD rate going for him. In order for him to hit .280 though he'd have to literally shave another 4-5% points off his K-rate (which would be a HUGE improvement, not unlike '08 to '09) but also post a pretty high BABIP since he still required a .312 BABIP to hit just over .280 in his rookie campaign.

All in all I think Uggla hits .265-.270 next year, but with massive power, so still a solid bargain, but .280 just seems way too high to me.
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Re: 2B Rankings for 2010

Postby Curtis Pride » Fri Dec 04, 2009 1:19 am

Uggla had a 20% k rate in the minors, so I think his 33% k rate was the anomaly.

His walk rates have steadily increased, and so I think further progression in his K rates can also be assumed.

Before this year, he also had a .307 career BABIP.

So if he has a 25% K rate, a .305 BABIP, maintains his power, that's a .270 BA.

Now if we assume good luck, as opposed to the bad luck he had this year, and maybe a little growth in power (or a different park), I think .280 isn't outlandish. I certainly bet he'll hit closer to .280 than the .243 he hit this year.

With his power, and a 26% k rate, he'd need a .328 BABIP to hit .280. Which is a matter of about 10-15 more lucky hits over a 6 month season than a .300 BABIP
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Re: 2B Rankings for 2010

Postby B-Chad » Fri Dec 04, 2009 1:48 am

Curtis Pride wrote:Uggla had a 20% k rate in the minors, so I think his 33% k rate was the anomaly.

His walk rates have steadily increased, and so I think further progression in his K rates can also be assumed.

Before this year, he also had a .307 career BABIP.

So if he has a 25% K rate, a .305 BABIP, maintains his power, that's a .270 BA.

Now if we assume good luck, as opposed to the bad luck he had this year, and maybe a little growth in power (or a different park), I think .280 isn't outlandish. I certainly bet he'll hit closer to .280 than the .243 he hit this year.

With his power, and a 26% k rate, he'd need a .328 BABIP to hit .280. Which is a matter of about 10-15 more lucky hits over a 6 month season than a .300 BABIP


I entirely agree that he'll be closer to a .270 hitter then a .243 hitter next year. I also am not opposed to thinking he'll continue his growth in the BB and K rates. I don't know how much growth in the K rates, but 25% seems reasonable. I think a .305-.310 BABIP is reasonable, so .270+ seems within reach. .328 for his BABIP seems to be a bit high for me to "project" but is certainly attainable. All in all, I'm interested by how little difference a .300 and a .328 BABIP is.
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Re: 2B Rankings for 2010

Postby J35J » Fri Dec 04, 2009 7:12 pm

I'd be suprised if Uggla hit .265. He'll be 30 years old this year and has hit over .260 once. I think he'll improve upon last year but to predict anything over .260 is probably just wishful thinking....sure he can do it but he's just not that good of a hitter...poor LD% and high K% doesn't equal a very high avg. You can pretty well count on 30/95/95 though, which is nice out of the 2B spot.
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Re: 2B Rankings for 2010

Postby OrangeWave » Sat Dec 26, 2009 10:31 pm

Speculative, but if Uggla's traded and Coghlan slides to second, roughly where do think Coghlan lands on a 2B rankings list?
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Re: 2B Rankings for 2010

Postby DbacksRback » Sun Dec 27, 2009 12:18 am

J35J wrote:I'd be suprised if Uggla hit .265. He'll be 30 years old this year and has hit over .260 once. I think he'll improve upon last year but to predict anything over .260 is probably just wishful thinking....sure he can do it but he's just not that good of a hitter...poor LD% and high K% doesn't equal a very high avg. You can pretty well count on 30/95/95 though, which is nice out of the 2B spot.


Very true..if you can work around the average, he is very reliably for roughly the numbers you posted wich is very solid for any 2b. For some reason though the avg always scares me away
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Re: 2B Rankings for 2010

Postby fang » Sun Dec 27, 2009 3:37 am

1. Utley
2. Kinsler
3. Hill
4. Cano
5. Phillips
6. Zobrist
7. Uggla
8. Roberts
9. Beckham
10. Pedroia
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Re: 2B Rankings for 2010

Postby Ender » Sun Dec 27, 2009 10:29 pm

Generally speaking player improvement isn't linear. With someone like Uggla if he had a big improvement in K% last year it makes a lot more sense to assume he'll repeat last years numbers or even regress towards his previous numbers some than to expect him to improve on it two years in a row. I'd think whatever park he ends up in will pay a bigger role than any improvement in K% last year.

Did the first draft of my MI rankings today so I just editted this.

Tier 1 - Utley, Kinsler
Tier 2 - Pedroia, Cano, Roberts, Phillips
Tier 3 - Hill, Zobrist, Uggla
Tier 4 - Kendrick, J. Lopez, Polanco
Tier 5 - Weeks, Johnson, F. Lopez

Those are the only guys I ranked so far and obviously it is just a first draft. I really don't like the depth at the position at all at this point. Tier 4/5 really don't excite me at all.
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