2B Rankings for 2010 - Fantasy Baseball Cafe 2014 Fantasy Baseball Cafe
100% Deposit Bonus for Cafe Members!

Return to Baseball Leftovers

2B Rankings for 2010

Moderator: Baseball Moderators

Re: 2B Rankings for 2010

Postby Inukchuk » Sat Nov 28, 2009 2:46 pm

B-Chad wrote:P.S. once I have time (likely sometime tomorrow) I'll address why Brian Roberts is still a better option then both Pedroia and Cano IMO.


I'm very interested to hear this. I owned Roberts this season for the first time, and I've become a big fan... ;-D
Image
abrunn11... the place to go for all your sig needs...
Inukchuk
General Manager
General Manager

User avatar
CafeholicCafe WriterMock(ing) Drafter
Posts: 4014
Joined: 24 Jan 2006
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Coming down on this hospital like the hammer of Thor

Re: 2B Rankings for 2010

Postby B-Chad » Sat Nov 28, 2009 8:14 pm

Inukchuk wrote:
B-Chad wrote:P.S. once I have time (likely sometime tomorrow) I'll address why Brian Roberts is still a better option then both Pedroia and Cano IMO.


I'm very interested to hear this. I owned Roberts this season for the first time, and I've become a big fan... ;-D


Well, looking at the fangraphs in depth stats again, it is pretty close between Pedroia and Roberts and close to a push, but I'd probably still favor Roberts. I would definitely favor Roberts over Cano, like I favored Pedroia over Cano. Not saying Cano is nowhere near their class, but I'd say he's lower in the same tier so to speak (thanks for bringing up the tiers J35J as they are important to note when discussing player rankings).

The reason for liking Roberts the best is that I believe his floor is the highest of the bunch. I also think he has a relatively high ceiling as it is possible his HR numbers could continue to rise a bit, while he could also get the green light a bit more and still nab a few more bags. Regardless, he appears to be the most stable of the bunch. Roberts will play all of the fantasy 2010 season at the age of 32, not an age I'm worried about him falling off a cliff at. B-Rob's LD rate is tantalizing (last year 21.6% and career 23.2% :-L ) and better then both Pedroia's and Cano's. B-Rob does possess the worst K-rate of the three, but also possesses the best BB rate of the three (more then double Cano's last year and about 2.5x better career; push with Pedroia last year, but better looking at their career marks).

Roberts' is a near certainty to get over 700 plate appearances, or roughly 40-50 more plate appearances next season then Robinson Cano looking at their career marks. That will almost certainly lead to a significant difference in runs scored considering not only will Roberts get more plate appearances but his career OBP is higher then Cano's (.339 to .356). Also taking into account that Cano's OBP is almost totally BA driven, and Roberts is more balanced given his high walk rate, the gap could be much wider in a given season since Roberts is entirely capable of posting a similar BA to Cano all the while walking a significant amount more. Also given the fact the O's lineup will likely improve with another year of adjusting/seasoning for Jones/Markakis/Wieters/Reimold I could see him posting a career high in runs next year (surpassing this past season's career high of 110). Roberts most likely won't drive in as many runs as Cano given that he is leading off, but I think he'll post more runs scored+ rbi's then Cano next season. I also think it is entirely possible that Roberts matches Cano's HR total next year given his upward trending ISO, higher FB rate then career mark posted last year (42.1% to 38.2%) and a HR/FB rate that exceeded his career mark last year (7.3% to 5.5%). All those things make me believe Roberts is capable of 15-20 HR's, which would put him in line to challenge for a new career high (current high 18). Given what will likely be a disparity of 25-30 SB's between B-Rob and Cano, I think it makes B-Rob a slam dunk to finish with a better overall line then Cano. Also, given a trending upward ISO, his high LD rate, and an improving HR/FB I think B-Rob has a shot at hitting over .290 next year, which would narrow the gap even further between one of Cano's two stat category leads (though I'm not ready to concede that Cano will hit as significantly higher HR total given last year being a career high and Roberts upward trending power).

The gap is closer between B-Rob and Pedroia, and could be a bit of a coin flip. Pedroia's BB rate is closing in on (and actually caught up to B-Rob's last year) and his BA is likely to be higher given his better contact rate. This means Pedroia is likely to score more runs. Given that both hit at the top of their respective orders (B-Rob leadoff for the O's, and Pedroia mostly 2nd for the Red Sox) I'd expect their RBI totals to be similar. I'd expect Roberts to hit a few more HR's then Pedroia given B-Robs upward trending (and already higher) ISO, as well as his higher FB rate and higher FB/HR rate. While the gap won't be huge I'd expect 3-5 HR difference. The real gap between Roberts and Pedroia comes in stolen bases. Last year's gap was 10, and I'd expect that to balloon to 15-20 this season. Roberts stole 30 bases in 37 tries while Pedroia stole 20 in 28 tries (meaning he was caught once more in 9 fewer attempts for those who didn't care to do the mathematics :-b ). Roberts stole 50 bags as recently as 2007, and while I don't expect him to match that number, given his success rate was similar to his 2008 campaign where he stole 40 bags (in 50 chances) I could see him climbing towards another 40 SB season. Given a decreasing success rate for Dustin Pedroia I'd expect the Red Sox to put the brakes on him a bit more often, possibly limiting him to 12-15 SB's instead of 15-20.

So, to conclude this winded post, even at the age of 32 I'd prefer Brian Roberts to Pedroia and Cano, but like J35J said, end the runs of players in a tier, don't start them. The only two 2B that should be taken well ahead of the pack are Utley and Kinsler, and Utley well in front of Kinsler IMO (proud owner of Kinsler in my most serious keeper league btw).
Image]
B-Chad
General Manager
General Manager

EditorCafeholicCafe WriterCafe RankerMock(ing) Drafter
Posts: 2213
Joined: 13 Feb 2007
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: 2B Rankings for 2010

Postby DaSh 1s » Mon Nov 30, 2009 1:30 pm

There are many points I agree with you and there are many points I disagree with I am going to switch back and forth from real and fantsy baseball. The problem with Pedroia is he has basically 2 and 2/3 full seasons dismissing his rookie year. Such a SSS.

For a poster who is pointing to OPS+ you'd think you'd actually have some backing to your "regression" by Pedroia that aren't simple statistics. Pedroia actually IMPROVED last year. In 2008 Dustin Pedroia's walk rate was 7.1% and for his career he'd posted an 8.6% BB rate. In 2009 Pedroia took a significant step forward and walked at a 10.6% rate. To add to his improvement he also reduced his K rate. In 2008 Pedroia posted a 8.0% K rate while for his career he posted a 7.7% K rate. In 2009 Pedroia's K rate was 7.2%. Overall that would put his BB:K at 1.64 in 2009 compared to a 1.22 BB:K rate for his career. His ISO last year was .152, which was better then his career mark of .148 but did trail his '08 rate of .167. Regardless, a minor "regression" in comparison to his gains in his walk and k rates.


Right, but despite these improvements, his OBP still dropped, and his SLG% still dropped dramatically. While he may have walked more and K’d less, his OBP was still less than we has in 2008. I use OPS to measure players, because its accounts for most of their percentages. 2009 was still Pedroia’s worst OPS of his career, no matter how you slice it. Pointing to the fact he walked more and improved his K rate, he still took a step back. I am not going to pick out BB rates and K rates, when the over all numbers still aren’t there.


Pedroia's LD rate of 20% is reason to believe he'll maintain a higher BA then Cano. It should also be noted he hits more FB's then Cano, which given a HR cannot result from a FB, means that even if he posts a lower HR/FB then Cano, which he likely will given ballpark, he should come in reasonably close to Cano in HR's given he'll hit more FB offsetting the difference in the percentage that leave the park.



Also when looking at Pedroia you can see his batting average being lower entirely because of his BABIP sitting at exactly .300 last year. You may say that means he had "normal" luck since that is essentially the measuring stick, but for a guy who's career BABIP is .316 and hits LD at the clip he does, I'd say he suffered from bad luck. Which bring me to my next point.

Now onto Cano. It seems awfull funny that you are ready to annoint Robbie Cano a massive BA and are so dismissive of his 2008 season. In 2 of 5 Major League season's for Cano he's hit under .300 (albeit .297 in his rookie season), and in one of those he hit just over .300 at .306. In two of his big league seasons he went well over a .300 average at .320 last season and .342 in a 482 AB 2006 season. In looking a little deeper at his monster average seasons you see big BABIP numbers. So again I ask, why do I get the feeling you are ready to put him at push or better then Pedroia in BA? He hits less LD's then Pedroia (though last year was essentially a push) and more GB's. Given Cano isn't a burner I would think his high GB rate would almost certainly limit his average, though I could be incorrect (and someone please correct me if that assumption is wrong... I always like learning some new things).


While I do agree with most of this, your still wording it your advantage. Cano posted BA’s of 297, 342, 306, 271, 320. If he posts an average close to or above 300 in his 6th year would you be satisfied enough? You point to BABIP numbers, but the same can be said for Pedroia . In 2009 Cano’s BABIP was .323 and translated into a 320 average. In 2008 when Pedroia hit .326 his BABIP was 336. “In looking a little deeper at his monster average seasons you see big BABIP numbers” Why don’t you look at Pedroia’s spike in BABIP when he posted his career high in AVG?

How about Pedroia’s 07 BABIP was .334 and avg was .317? How can we say say Cano is getting lucky and his BA are driven by BABIP, when Pedroia is the same case?

The reason I am so dismissive of his 2008 season was because he couldn’t do anything right. I watched most of his AB’s that season, and it was a pure mental state of funk. I am using it as a outlier because I believe there were other factors in Robbie’s game that season but that alone could just be me.

I'm also not sure why you are so "sold" on Cano's power. He had a career high HR/FB rate last year, and last season was his only season in 5 in which he eclipsed the 20 HR mark. While I'll agree he "should" hit more HR's then Pedroia, I'm not ready to label the disparity more then a few, say 2-5 HR's.


This is a spot where I highly disagree.
Cano’s Home/Away Slugging
.541/498
.448/.372
.505/.471
.514/.534

Pedroia’s Home/Away Slugging
.514/.381
.519/.468
.502/.380

Pedroia’s career SLG Home/Away (.505/.406) 99 point variance, while Cano’s career Home/Away (.480/.479) 1 point variance.

Without a doubt, I am more sold on Cano’s raw power than Dustin’s. Dustin has proven that most of his extra base hits have been a product of Fenway park and the variance in his numbers are pretty telling from year to year. Cano’s raw power has been improving year to year and it hasn’t been a pure product of new Yankee stadium (14 Home HRs 11 Road HRs 2009). It’s without a doubt, Cano “should” hit more homers than Pedroia, and the parity will be greater than 2-5, IMO. Pedroia’s road SLG is just is not enough to keep up with Robbie’s and he should pull away with that category hands down.

In conclusion, I'm not sure why Cano seems to be your "clear cut," choice over Pedroia. You keep pointing to OPS+, but the fact is, looking at more then 1 single statistic, it would appear Pedroia is a safe bet to score more runs, hit for a higher average, and steal more bases (by a wide margin given Cano has less CAREER steals then Pedroia had last season alone, and the fact Cano has been CS more then he's actually successfully swiped a bag). That would leave Cano two categories he might outproduced Pedroia in. I can't even say with certainty he'll hit significantly more HR's then Pedroia (though I would expect with his homeballpark he will hit more HR's then Pedroia) or that he'll drive in more runs (though once again I expect him to drive in more runs as I'd expect him to hit in a more RBI friendly spot as opposed to being a table setter).


I used OPS+ to measure the overall production of the two players, since it would be pretty hard to compare a lead off hitter to a number 7 hitter. But the matter I, Cano scored 12 less runs batting 7th than Pedroia did batting leadoff/2 hole? The Red Sox were not as good as the Yankee offense last year, Walked Less, Struck Out More, Scored Less, and SLGed Less, and hit 30 less homers. There were simply lesss opportunities to score in the Red Sox lineup. Key Losses, to both sides (Bay, Matsui). Without Bay (or another impact hitter) means less runs for Pedroia, and without Matsui, Cano now becomes the Left Handed hitter behind A-Rod to complete Girardi’s emphasis of L/R splits in his lineup


Last time I checked that leaves the count at 3 cats to 2 cats best case scenario. Like I said, I think both will go well before I'm ready to take a 2B (as will Hill likely). If I participated in a 5x5 redraft league I'd feel much more comfortable taking 2 flyers late in the mold of a Howie Kendrick/Rickie Weeks pairing, or something of that ilk as I just don't think I can stomach drafting Cano or Pedroia where the Yankee and Red Sox suckers are likely to take them in a league.


It leaves the count 3 cats to 2 cats but your dismissing the fact that there should be a noticeable gap in two of those categories. Robbie has been way more consistent with his SLG percentages and should take the Home Run category.

Pedroia logged 72 RBIs while hitting .327/.418/.440 RISP in 2009 and Robbie had 85 RBIs despite 207/242/332 RISP in 2009. Despite dwarfing Cano in all the ratios how the heck did Cano manage to produce more RBI’s than Pedroia? Who has a better chance at outperforming there ratios next year? Mind you with Matsui gone, Cano likely will be hitting 5th against RHP this season. Not sure if Girardi will use Posada in the 5 hole against LHP yet?

Given the slight difference in runs, and about ~15 more SB, I feel safer assuming Cano should out produce Pedroia significantly in RBIs and HR. And largely I am more convinced Cano’s BA hasn’t been driving by his BABIP, as much as Dusty’s has.

Don’t get me wrong. Both players are premiere 2B and will produce accordingly, I am just going to hedge my bets on Cano this season because I think the difference in RBI and HR total will give him greater value then the minimal Run Difference and the extra bags.



The reason for liking Roberts the best is that I believe his floor is the highest of the bunch.


His floor? As in, at his worst would be better than Pedroia or Cano’s worst?


I also think he has a relatively high ceiling as it is possible his HR numbers could continue to rise a bit, while he could also get the green light a bit more and still nab a few more bags. Regardless, he appears to be the most stable of the bunch. Roberts will play all of the fantasy 2010 season at the age of 32, not an age I'm worried about him falling off a cliff at. B-Rob's LD rate is tantalizing (last year 21.6% and career 23.2% ) and better then both Pedroia's and Cano's. B-Rob does possess the worst K-rate of the three, but also possesses the best BB rate of the three (more then double Cano's last year and about 2.5x better career; push with Pedroia last year, but better looking at their career marks).


How can you sit there and assume his power numbers continue to rise at the age of 32? This is absurd. He SLG 515 at the age of 27 in 2005 with a LD rate of 27.4. and came out with 18 home runs. His SLG for 09 was 451.

His 2009 LD rate was pretty much the same over the last four years (21.6, 23.9, 19.5, 20.9). How can you honestly expect his Power to rise? Even with a LD rate of 27.4 he had only 18 homers? But you expect him to best 16 Home Runs to rise next year? On what assumption?

Despite being better than Dusty’s and Robbie’s, B-Robs BB rates have been declining and K rates haves been increasing over the last three years, you aren’t worried about the age of 32?

Roberts' is a near certainty to get over 700 plate appearances, or roughly 40-50 more plate appearances next season then Robinson Cano looking at their career marks. That will almost certainly lead to a significant difference in runs scored considering not only will Roberts get more plate appearances but his career OBP is higher then Cano's (.339 to .356). Also taking into account that Cano's OBP is almost totally BA driven, and Roberts is more balanced given his high walk rate, the gap could be much wider in a given season since


This again is another assumption. Despite having 40 more plate appearances, and batting leadoff and He only had seven more runs that Robby? Brian Roberts 09 OBP was .356 to Cano’s .352? Cano’s respective career OBP [320 (rook), 365, 353,305,352], Despite that 08 OBP, Cano’s OBPs are right there. If Roberts continutes the trends of diminishing walks and increasing SO, I don’t know how you can anoint Robert’s a better OBP man going forward? Especially when Cano’s BB rate improves (lol, only slightly year to year)

Roberts is entirely capable of posting a similar BA to Cano all the while walking a significant amount more.


For some reason, so quick to dismiss Cano’s career .339 BA to Roberts career .284? Roberts batted above .300 once in all of his nine seasons. Cano’s done it three out of five seasons, and one logged in at .297

I am just going to ignore this statement.

Also given the fact the O's lineup will likely improve with another year of adjusting/seasoning for Jones/Markakis/Wieters/Reimold I could see him posting a career high in runs next year (surpassing this past season's career high of 110).


There Orioles are still a bad team.
Yankees to the O’s:
BB% 10.5 to a 8.4,
K% 17.9 to a 18.0
OBP 362 to a 332
SLG 478 to a 415

How much improvement, do you see that would allow Robert to dominate Robbie in runs? Both had the similar OBP?

Roberts most likely won't drive in as many runs as Cano given that he is leading off, but I think he'll post more runs scored+ rbi's then Cano next season.


Roberts did have a great year in terms of RBI, but again over the last couple of years his RBI totals have been (79,57,57,55,73). How can you expect another 73 RBIs? Cano has some OBP monsters in front of him as in Jeter (406) , Teix (383), Alex (402), Jorge (363). Like we said before, he was abysmal with RISP (207/242/332 RISP) and still walked away with 85 RBIs. If Cano can improve on that facet of his game, he should dwarf Roberts in RBI numbers. Especially with what Roberts has hitting in front of him.


I also think it is entirely possible that Roberts matches Cano's HR total next year given his upward trending ISO, higher FB rate then career mark posted last year (42.1% to 38.2%) and a HR/FB rate that exceeded his career mark last year (7.3% to 5.5%). All those things make me believe Roberts is capable of 15-20 HR's, which would put him in line to challenge for a new career high (current high 18).


A LOT to assume.

Given what will likely be a disparity of 25-30 SB's between B-Rob and Cano, I think it makes B-Rob a slam dunk to finish with a better overall line then Cano. Also, given a trending upward ISO, his high LD rate, and an improving HR/FB I think B-Rob has a shot at hitting over .290 next year, which would narrow the gap even further between one of Cano's two stat category leads (though I'm not ready to concede that Cano will hit as significantly higher HR total given last year being a career high and Roberts upward trending power).


Unless Roberts has a career year in home runs, I don’t know how you can peg Roberts ahead of both Dusty and Cano. Both Dusty and Robbie will log 20+ RBI than him, post very similar Run totals, and are a sure bet above 15 Home runs. Most likely both will out perform his AVG as well. Roberts has never been the one for a high average.


The points you listed are gigantic gambles in assuming

Roberts is an average offensive player, his value is predominately his SB numbers which have been on a rapid decline these past few years. He definitely serves fantasy value, but it won’t be because he is likely to outperform the other duo but because he will fall in terms of rounds. I’d rather be a year early on a player than a year to late. SB have went 50->40->30 over the past three years. If they decline to say about 25 next year, you might have a 2B fully capable of a line 280 100 13 70 with 25 bags.
B-Chad wrote:Pedroia's LD rate of 20% is reason to believe he'll maintain a higher BA then Cano. It should also be noted he hits more FB's then Cano, which means that even if he posts a lower HR/FB then Cano, he should come in reasonably close to Cano in HR's
DaSh 1s
Major League Manager
Major League Manager

User avatar

Posts: 1893
(Past Year: 1)
Joined: 1 Aug 2007
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: 2B Rankings for 2010

Postby B-Chad » Mon Nov 30, 2009 2:05 pm

I'll give you a full response later, as I'm about to be on the run, but I did want to clarify one point. When discussing Brian Roberts floor, I meant in relation to Pedroia's and Cano's floor. Therefore, if all had the worst imaginable season they could have, I'd expect Roberts to have the best season of the three. Just a little miscommunication. Anyways, I'll give a more detailed response later, I just wanted to clarify that in the short term.
Image]
B-Chad
General Manager
General Manager

EditorCafeholicCafe WriterCafe RankerMock(ing) Drafter
Posts: 2213
Joined: 13 Feb 2007
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: 2B Rankings for 2010

Postby J35J » Mon Nov 30, 2009 8:16 pm

Still in the progress of all my rankings/projections but I do have these 3 finished. I currently have them ranked Pedroia then Roberts then Cano. With that said they are all in the same tier so if I had a choice only between these 3 I'd be fine with whichever one fell the furthest in the draft.

Pedroia(32 combined HR/SB and 191 combined R/RBI)
615AB
.310/.381/.466/.847
14hr
76rbi
115runs
18sb

Roberts(44 combined HR/SB and 165 combined R/RBI)
600AB
.285/.367/.430/.797
11hr
60rbi
105runs
33sb

(RBI and Runs still to be determined based on where they are going to hit him in the lineup...up front or middle/end)
Cano(24 combined HR/SB and 174 combined R/RBI)
600AB
.312/.352/.497/.849
20hr
80rbi
94runs
4sb
J35J
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicFantasy ExpertCafe WriterCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterPick 3 Weekly Winner
Posts: 10467
(Past Year: 387)
Joined: 26 Jan 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: 2B Rankings for 2010

Postby DaSh 1s » Mon Nov 30, 2009 9:26 pm

I guess, I don't rate SB as much as home runs.


That +.027 AVG, + 20 RBIs, + 9 HR. -7 Runs would have me forget about the SB



I guess with a valuation of those standards would have a 2009 B Phillips topping tthat Tier then?
(45 combined SB/HR and 174 RBI/Runs)
276 Avg
20 HR
98 RBI
78 Runs
25 SB


So it would be Phillips-Pedroia-BRob-Cano then by that valuation? I certainly don't think Phillips would belong ahead of them?

And then a 2009 Aaron Hill would top all four then?
(42 HR/SB and 211 Runs)
B-Chad wrote:Pedroia's LD rate of 20% is reason to believe he'll maintain a higher BA then Cano. It should also be noted he hits more FB's then Cano, which means that even if he posts a lower HR/FB then Cano, he should come in reasonably close to Cano in HR's
DaSh 1s
Major League Manager
Major League Manager

User avatar

Posts: 1893
(Past Year: 1)
Joined: 1 Aug 2007
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: 2B Rankings for 2010

Postby B-Chad » Mon Nov 30, 2009 9:52 pm

Alright, I finally have a second to post a response. I'll start by saying I hope I didn't come off as snarky with my comments, I just wanted to bring to light a different set of statistics that I believe shine more favorably on Pedroia and Roberts then Cano. I'll also add that this will be the last that I discuss these three for now as I feel like I'm beating a dead horse.

DaSh 1s wrote:Right, but despite these improvements, his OBP still dropped, and his SLG% still dropped dramatically. While he may have walked more and K’d less, his OBP was still less than we has in 2008. I use OPS to measure players, because its accounts for most of their percentages. 2009 was still Pedroia’s worst OPS of his career, no matter how you slice it. Pointing to the fact he walked more and improved his K rate, he still took a step back. I am not going to pick out BB rates and K rates, when the over all numbers still aren’t there.


Alright, for starters I don't understand why you would point to "overall numbers," I would hope that since you are using OPS+ you understand that statistics such as runs scored, rbi's and sometimes batting average are actually driven by luck not skill. You constantly point to Cano's poor BA with RISP, so clearly he must not be clutch, the "overall numbers" say so, end of story? I don't think so. In projecting future statistical out put I'd argue it's much more important to look at the stats and numbers a player can control such as walk rate, k rate and balls in play rate (GB/FB/LD rates). In Pedroia's case, he had a minor regression in LD rate (21.2% in 2008 to 20.0% in 2009). He also got more lift and turned some of his GB's into FB's (2008 he hit 42.9/36.0 GB/FB and in 2009 he hit 39.2/40.8 GB/FB, which likely bodes well for a slight bump in HR's going forward as a HR can not be hit on a GB). I would argue that is a slight step forward, offsetting his minor LD regression. His OBP only dropped slightly in spite of a .030 drop in BA average (.376 OBP in 2008 to .371 in 2009). Given that his BABIP fell from .336 in 2008 to .300 in 2009, which is a steep fall considering his LD rate dropped marginally. For comparisons sake his career BABIP is .316, so even matching his career BABIP and not his high water mark in 2008 you'd expect a higher batting average and thus a higher OBP. Also, his slugging percentage clearly also dropped because of not recording as many hits. Once again, little changed in his skillset, except the fact he drew more walks and struck out less, so I'd say his 2009 BABIP appears to be an outlier to this point (albeit with a small sample size, so perhaps his '07 and '08 appear to be outliers when it is all said and done). So I'm going to continue to disagree that he regressed last year, and in fact say that he appeared to improve judging by the factors he could control.

DaSh 1s wrote:While I do agree with most of this, your still wording it your advantage. Cano posted BA’s of 297, 342, 306, 271, 320. If he posts an average close to or above 300 in his 6th year would you be satisfied enough? You point to BABIP numbers, but the same can be said for Pedroia . In 2009 Cano’s BABIP was .323 and translated into a 320 average. In 2008 when Pedroia hit .326 his BABIP was 336. “In looking a little deeper at his monster average seasons you see big BABIP numbers” Why don’t you look at Pedroia’s spike in BABIP when he posted his career high in AVG?

How about Pedroia’s 07 BABIP was .334 and avg was .317? How can we say say Cano is getting lucky and his BA are driven by BABIP, when Pedroia is the same case?

The reason I am so dismissive of his 2008 season was because he couldn’t do anything right. I watched most of his AB’s that season, and it was a pure mental state of funk. I am using it as a outlier because I believe there were other factors in Robbie’s game that season but that alone could just be me.


I am satisfied that Cano is a hitter who will bat around .300. I don't believe he's a .340 hitter, and I think .320 is even a bit high. I also noted the same could be said for Pedroia, and pointed out that I understand why his BABIP sits above .300 and is actually .316 for his career. I don't understand how Cano's BABIP is so high. Clearly it's not completely luck as he has a career BABIP of .324 in over 2800 career AB's, meaning it is a skill of sorts. However, given his lower LD rate then Pedroia's (not huge, but lower none the less), and higher GB rate (which would seem to spell out for a guy who isn't legging out infield singles with his blazing speed) I'm a bit surprised by his BABIP, more so then Pedroia's, so yes, to some degree his BABIP does seem to be a bit luck driven. I'll repeat this once again so it isn't lost on anyone and misinterpreted, I don't believe Cano's BABIP is entirely luck driven given his number of AB's to this point in his career, but I do believe it is a tad bit high given his balls in play rates. What that all boils down to is that I believe Pedroia is a safer bet for a batting average that eclipses .300, possibly north of .310. When it is all said and done, the batting average between the two will likely be splitting hairs as they'll likely be a very negligable difference between the two. Finally, I really don't care about your anecdotal evidence as you aren't a scout, so what you saw may have been completely different from what someone more qualified then both you and I saw. It certainly is something you should take into account in doing your player valuations for next year, but not something that really brings a lot to the argument IMO.

DaSh 1s wrote:This is a spot where I highly disagree.
Cano’s Home/Away Slugging
.541/498
.448/.372
.505/.471
.514/.534

Pedroia’s Home/Away Slugging
.514/.381
.519/.468
.502/.380

Pedroia’s career SLG Home/Away (.505/.406) 99 point variance, while Cano’s career Home/Away (.480/.479) 1 point variance.

Without a doubt, I am more sold on Cano’s raw power than Dustin’s. Dustin has proven that most of his extra base hits have been a product of Fenway park and the variance in his numbers are pretty telling from year to year. Cano’s raw power has been improving year to year and it hasn’t been a pure product of new Yankee stadium (14 Home HRs 11 Road HRs 2009). It’s without a doubt, Cano “should” hit more homers than Pedroia, and the parity will be greater than 2-5, IMO. Pedroia’s road SLG is just is not enough to keep up with Robbie’s and he should pull away with that category hands down.


The split severity for Pedroia is interesting, but to roto leaguers, means very little as long as he continues to slug the hell out of the ball at home and post a solid final line. For those in H2H leagues, it is certainly something to note. I'm not sure what Cano having more "raw power," has to do with anything here. His HR/FB rate was a career high last year and a steep jump from the previous season. He is entering the prime power years of his career in all likelihood, but given the huge disparity between his HR/FB rate in 2008 and 2009, I'm not ready to annoint him a perennial 20+ HR hitter. He clearly displayed that he is capable of doing it last year, but maybe last year was the ceiling, I honestly don't know.

DaSh 1s wrote:I used OPS+ to measure the overall production of the two players, since it would be pretty hard to compare a lead off hitter to a number 7 hitter. But the matter I, Cano scored 12 less runs batting 7th than Pedroia did batting leadoff/2 hole? The Red Sox were not as good as the Yankee offense last year, Walked Less, Struck Out More, Scored Less, and SLGed Less, and hit 30 less homers. There were simply lesss opportunities to score in the Red Sox lineup. Key Losses, to both sides (Bay, Matsui). Without Bay (or another impact hitter) means less runs for Pedroia, and without Matsui, Cano now becomes the Left Handed hitter behind A-Rod to complete Girardi’s emphasis of L/R splits in his lineup


A lot of presumption in this quote. Neither team has officially lost any of the players in question. In fact, I would argue it is likely that both the Yankees and Red Sox will either retain the services of their sluggers, or replace one of them with Holliday. The Yankees should be expected to cut ties with either Matsui or Damon, but not necessarily both. The Red Sox could certainly re-sign Bay, or make a play for Holliday (I'll add that the Yankees could let both Matsui and Damon both leave and make a play for Holliday as well). I also find it interesting that you point to the Yankees lineup strength but don't point out the fact that it could prevent Cano from hitting in the heart of the order so to speak. Pedroia will clearly hit in the 2 spot for the Red Sox, Robinson Cano will clearly NOT hit in the 3 or 4 spot, and if the Yankees were to retain the services of Matsui or sign Holliday wouldn't hit in the 5 spot either. Even if Matsui isn't re-signed, and Holliday doesn't land in NY, you alluded to the possibility of Posada hitting 5, in all honesty, the Yankees stacked lineup could hinder Cano to some degree (namely if he hits lower in the lineup, he'll receive less AB's then Pedroia, there are obvious benefits to having a stacked lineup as he'll likely see guys on base when he is at the dish). I also think in Pedroia's case the Red Sox lineup depth isn't as important. If Ellsbury proves to be a capable leadoff hitter and the Red Sox either retain Bay or sign Holliday, he'll have V-Mart, Youkilis and Bay/Holliday hitting behind him, which means he will still get his runs scored. Also, remember it isn't completely out of the question the Red Sox make a big splash and go after Adrian Gonzalez, they were rumored to be a suitor at the trade deadline, and if they are trully pulling out of the Halladay sweepstakes, they could move on to him as a target.
DaSh 1s wrote:It leaves the count 3 cats to 2 cats but your dismissing the fact that there should be a noticeable gap in two of those categories. Robbie has been way more consistent with his SLG percentages and should take the Home Run category.

Pedroia logged 72 RBIs while hitting .327/.418/.440 RISP in 2009 and Robbie had 85 RBIs despite 207/242/332 RISP in 2009. Despite dwarfing Cano in all the ratios how the heck did Cano manage to produce more RBI’s than Pedroia? Who has a better chance at outperforming there ratios next year? Mind you with Matsui gone, Cano likely will be hitting 5th against RHP this season. Not sure if Girardi will use Posada in the 5 hole against LHP yet?

Given the slight difference in runs, and about ~15 more SB, I feel safer assuming Cano should out produce Pedroia significantly in RBIs and HR. And largely I am more convinced Cano’s BA hasn’t been driving by his BABIP, as much as Dusty’s has.

Don’t get me wrong. Both players are premiere 2B and will produce accordingly, I am just going to hedge my bets on Cano this season because I think the difference in RBI and HR total will give him greater value then the minimal Run Difference and the extra bags.


Significant difference in RBI's and HR's but only a "slight" difference in runs scored? I thought I was the one that was wording things favorably for my argument? Last year was a career year in runs scored for Robinson Cano and he STILL scored 12 fewer runs then Dustin Pedroia, I wouldn't call that slight, especially considering if Pedroia had anymore luck in his BABIP last year, that gap would have been even larger between a career year in Cano's runs scored and essentially the norm in runs scored for Pedroia over the last two. I would say it is easy to project Pedroia for a significant advantage in both runs scored and stolen bases, moreso then I'd project Cano to hit a significantly larger number of HR's then Pedroia. I will concede that Cano will almost certainly drive in more runs then Pedroia given where they each hit in the lineup, but I think runs+rbi's will fall slightly in favor of Pedroia. Also given that Pedroia will steal significantly more bags then Cano and should hit for a slightly higher average (IMO given the stats I've laid out) that seems to more then make up for the difference in HR's, which last year was a difference of 10, and I don't believe will be larger this year, if anything I think he'll be lucky to maintain that large a gap. Pedroia's gap in SB will almost certainly be over 10, perhaps as many as 15 in SB's.

DaSh 1s wrote:How can you sit there and assume his power numbers continue to rise at the age of 32? This is absurd. He SLG 515 at the age of 27 in 2005 with a LD rate of 27.4. and came out with 18 home runs. His SLG for 09 was 451.

His 2009 LD rate was pretty much the same over the last four years (21.6, 23.9, 19.5, 20.9). How can you honestly expect his Power to rise? Even with a LD rate of 27.4 he had only 18 homers? But you expect him to best 16 Home Runs to rise next year? On what assumption?

Despite being better than Dusty’s and Robbie’s, B-Robs BB rates have been declining and K rates haves been increasing over the last three years, you aren’t worried about the age of 32?


I can say that I assume his power continues to rise at the age of 32 because his ISO continues to rise every season since 2006 (2006: .124; 2007: 1.42; 2008: .154; 2009: .168). What is absurd is that you point at his career high in SLG percentage and neglect what he's done statistically since then. I also find it funny that you noticeably ommitted his HR total in 2009 after pointing to his career high 18 HR's in 2005. For those wondering, his HR total with his .451 SLG in '09 was 16, two fewer then 2005. His BB and K rates have been regressing some, but the large change came from 2007 to 2008, it changed marginally from 2008 to 2009, so I'm not greatly concerned, though it would be nice to see him walk a bit more, even if his new found slugging results in a slightly higer K rate then what he was posting in 2007. I'll also point out one more flaw, HR's are the result of FB's, not LD's, there is a reason for measuring HR/FB and not HR/LD, HR's don't result from LD's. Given that he's adding lift to his contact and hitting more FB's, it would seem logical to believe his power would go up.

DaSh 1s wrote:This again is another assumption. Despite having 40 more plate appearances, and batting leadoff and He only had seven more runs that Robby? Brian Roberts 09 OBP was .356 to Cano’s .352? Cano’s respective career OBP [320 (rook), 365, 353,305,352], Despite that 08 OBP, Cano’s OBPs are right there. If Roberts continutes the trends of diminishing walks and increasing SO, I don’t know how you can anoint Robert’s a better OBP man going forward? Especially when Cano’s BB rate improves (lol, only slightly year to year)


I'm assuming you didn't read what I wrote at all. B-Rob's OBP is not nearly as reliant on BA as Cano's is, and given that fact, he is a safer bet to post a higher OBP then Cano since Cano is allergic to drawing a walk and B-Rob is not. As recently as 2007 and 2008 Brian Roberts posted OBP of .377 and .378 respectively. Cano has never had an OBP above .365, which is his career high that he posted in a year in which his batting average was .342. So yes, I would argue there is a clear difference in OBP going forward that favors Brian Roberts. I'll also point out that his .356 OBP last year came in a year he hit .283, his lowest mark since 2004. Given that he hit .290 or better in 2007 and 2008, I believe he is still capable of hitting .290 or better (his LD rate is still fantastic), couple that with a much better BB rate then Cano, and you have a large gap in OBP, which will in turn lead to a large gap in runs scored.

DaSh 1s wrote:For some reason, so quick to dismiss Cano’s career .339 BA to Roberts career .284? Roberts batted above .300 once in all of his nine seasons. Cano’s done it three out of five seasons, and one logged in at .297

I am just going to ignore this statement.


Ok, so I went a bit off the reservation with that statement. I do still think Brian Roberts checks in with a BA in the .290 area (.285-.295) and think that Cano hits around .310, so that is a significant gap, albeit much smaller then last years gap. Which is really what I should have said in the first place :-b .

DaSh 1s wrote:There Orioles are still a bad team.
Yankees to the O’s:
BB% 10.5 to a 8.4,
K% 17.9 to a 18.0
OBP 362 to a 332
SLG 478 to a 415

How much improvement, do you see that would allow Robert to dominate Robbie in runs? Both had the similar OBP?


I think Roberts OBP will be noticeably higher then Cano's as I expect Roberts to hit around .290 and continue to post a much better walk rate then Cano (who is allergic to walks). I believe that with a higher OBP, and an improving young core behind him, he'll score more runs. I'll also point out that lineup depth is much more important to Cano then to Roberts as Roberts runs scored will be a product of the next three hitters behind him (Jones, Markakis, Wieters/Reimold in all likelihood). I expect each of those 4 hitters who may hit in the 3 slots behind Roberts to improve, thus helping Roberts runs scored total.

DaSh 1s wrote:Roberts did have a great year in terms of RBI, but again over the last couple of years his RBI totals have been (79,57,57,55,73). How can you expect another 73 RBIs? Cano has some OBP monsters in front of him as in Jeter (406) , Teix (383), Alex (402), Jorge (363). Like we said before, he was abysmal with RISP (207/242/332 RISP) and still walked away with 85 RBIs. If Cano can improve on that facet of his game, he should dwarf Roberts in RBI numbers. Especially with what Roberts has hitting in front of him.


I won't dispute Cano will drive in more runs, my entire argument was that Roberts would post more runs+rbi, which I believe.

DaSh 1s wrote:I also think it is entirely possible that Roberts matches Cano's HR total next year given his upward trending ISO, higher FB rate then career mark posted last year (42.1% to 38.2%) and a HR/FB rate that exceeded his career mark last year (7.3% to 5.5%). All those things make me believe Roberts is capable of 15-20 HR's, which would put him in line to challenge for a new career high (current high 18).

A LOT to assume.


I don't think it's a lot to assume at all. I think it's just a case of looking at the numbers on fan graphs carefully and identifying a trend. Upward trending ISO+more FB's+higher HR/FB rate= more HR's. He hit 16 HR's last year, a number that fell only 2 short of his career high 18. I see no reason to believe he can't continue this upward trend and approach 18-20 HR's, which would either match or break his career high.

DaSh 1s wrote:Unless Roberts has a career year in home runs, I don’t know how you can peg Roberts ahead of both Dusty and Cano. Both Dusty and Robbie will log 20+ RBI than him, post very similar Run totals, and are a sure bet above 15 Home runs. Most likely both will out perform his AVG as well. Roberts has never been the one for a high average.


The points you listed are gigantic gambles in assuming

Roberts is an average offensive player, his value is predominately his SB numbers which have been on a rapid decline these past few years. He definitely serves fantasy value, but it won’t be because he is likely to outperform the other duo but because he will fall in terms of rounds. I’d rather be a year early on a player than a year to late. SB have went 50->40->30 over the past three years. If they decline to say about 25 next year, you might have a 2B fully capable of a line 280 100 13 70 with 25 bags.


The points I listed are not gigantic gambles in assuming, they are a case of studying stats and identifying trends, big difference. Roberts' greatest value is his SB numbers, but simply pinning his value on SB's is foolish considering how many runs he scores. His SB numbers have declined the past few years, but not for lack of success, rather lack of opportunity. Last year B-Rob stole 81% of the bases he attempted to steal, that was a 1% improvement on his 2008 success rate. Given his drop in OBP from 2008 to 2009, it's safe to say his SB drop was from lack of opportunity, not declining skill. I don't believe he'll match 50 SB's again, but I think he'll steal 30-35 bases again, especially since I think he'll hit .290 this year thus improving his OBP. If his success rate had dropped, I would have concerns that he may steal less bags next year, but given that's not the case, I'm not that concerned.

It has been fun going back and forth with you Dashiz, but I think I'm beginning to re-hash the same points, and think I need to draw the line for myself here. I'll likely discuss these guys again, but not in this thread, and not at this time. It looks like we'll have to agree to disagree (at least I hope we can agree on this :-b ). I'll finish it off with a quick projection for each of the three for next year at this point (which will almost certainly change when free agents sign and things shake out a bit more).

Brian Roberts: 115-20-72 .290 35

Dustin Pedroia: 120-17-78 .320 17

Robinson Cano: 90-22-95 .310 2

As you can see, I like all three to post solid numbers, including Robbie Cano (don't you know :-b ). My argument was never that Robinson Cano wasn't a top flight 2B, just that I liked B-Rob and Pedroia better. Of the three, I even think Roberts will get drafted the latest, making him the greatest value.
Image]
B-Chad
General Manager
General Manager

EditorCafeholicCafe WriterCafe RankerMock(ing) Drafter
Posts: 2213
Joined: 13 Feb 2007
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: 2B Rankings for 2010

Postby J35J » Mon Nov 30, 2009 9:58 pm

DaSh 1s wrote:I guess, I don't rate SB as much as home runs.


That +.027 AVG, + 20 RBIs, + 9 HR. -7 Runs would have me forget about the SB



I guess with a valuation of those standards would have a 2009 B Phillips topping tthat Tier then?
(45 combined SB/HR and 174 RBI/Runs)
276 Avg
20 HR
98 RBI
78 Runs
25 SB


So it would be Phillips-Pedroia-BRob-Cano then by that valuation? I certainly don't think Phillips would belong ahead of them?

And then a 2009 Aaron Hill would top all four then?
(42 HR/SB and 211 Runs)


SB are a category just like any other...

And thats kind of the point, all those guys are in the same tier....but yes, Hill was the 2nd best 2B in '09....problem is you can't use '09 stats for '10. Zobrist is also in the mix towards the end of this same tier.

Phillips(44 combined HR/SB and 174 combined R/RBI)
580AB
.273/.323/.445
20hr
92rbi
82runs
24sb

Hill(30 combined HR/SB and 164 combined R/RBI)
610AB
.285/.337/.480
25hr
82rbi
82runs
5sb

Zobrist(41 combined HR/SB and 174 combined R/RBI)
550AB
.285/.385/.509
26hr
90rbi
84runs
15sb
J35J
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicFantasy ExpertCafe WriterCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterPick 3 Weekly Winner
Posts: 10467
(Past Year: 387)
Joined: 26 Jan 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: 2B Rankings for 2010

Postby Curtis Pride » Thu Dec 03, 2009 2:53 pm

Steal for next year will be Dan Uggla.

If you look at his peripherals, his K rate is declining, while his BB rate is improving. He had some hellish bad luck, and I think he puts up a .280/30/100 next year and will end up a top 5 2b.

Also, while I'd have it Cano, Pedroia, Roberts, I think the three of them are very close. And really rather than nitpicking about the placing of the three, I'd recommend a draft strategy of tiering it up, and just grabbing the last available of those three and being happy. And really, 2B is actually pretty deep this year. I'd really be happy with any of the top 10.

1-Utley
2-Kinsler
3-Cano
4-Pedroia
5-Roberts
6-Uggla
7-Hill
8-Beckham
9-Phillips
10-Zobrist
Curtis Pride
Major League Manager
Major League Manager

User avatar

Posts: 1363
(Past Year: 5)
Joined: 19 May 2007
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: 2B Rankings for 2010

Postby DaSh 1s » Thu Dec 03, 2009 3:52 pm

Curtis Pride wrote:Steal for next year will be Dan Uggla.

If you look at his peripherals, his K rate is declining, while his BB rate is improving. He had some hellish bad luck, and I think he puts up a .280/30/100 next year and will end up a top 5 2b.

Also, while I'd have it Cano, Pedroia, Roberts, I think the three of them are very close. And really rather than nitpicking about the placing of the three, I'd recommend a draft strategy of tiering it up, and just grabbing the last available of those three and being happy. And really, 2B is actually pretty deep this year. I'd really be happy with any of the top 10.

1-Utley
2-Kinsler
3-Cano
4-Pedroia
5-Roberts
6-Uggla
7-Hill
8-Beckham
9-Phillips
10-Zobrist


What's your reasoning for ranking it Cano, Pedroia, and then Roberts?
B-Chad wrote:Pedroia's LD rate of 20% is reason to believe he'll maintain a higher BA then Cano. It should also be noted he hits more FB's then Cano, which means that even if he posts a lower HR/FB then Cano, he should come in reasonably close to Cano in HR's
DaSh 1s
Major League Manager
Major League Manager

User avatar

Posts: 1893
(Past Year: 1)
Joined: 1 Aug 2007
Home Cafe: Baseball

PreviousNext

Return to Baseball Leftovers

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 7 guests

Forums Articles & Tips Sleepers Rankings Leagues


Today's Games
Wednesday, Oct. 1
(All times are EST, weather icons show forecast for game time)

San Francisco at Pittsburgh
(8:07 pm)

  • Fantasy Baseball
  • Article Submissions
  • Privacy Statement
  • Site Survey 
  • Contact