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Prospects for Next Year

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Re: Prospects for Next Year

Postby kab21 » Wed Nov 18, 2009 6:18 am

I was just going to post that Castro was becoming overrated based on his 100 PA sample size. First off everybody hits in the AFL, it makes the PCL look like a pitchers league. Second he showed very little power and his hitting driven by an extraordinarily high BAPIP. I am kind of disappointed by the comments about his speed, that surprises me.

good prospect but it's time to sell high right now because he is overrated esp in fantasy since he has a lot of defensive value.
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Re: Prospects for Next Year

Postby Johnny Tuttle » Wed Nov 18, 2009 8:46 am

Agreed about the speed comment. That's the troubling bit.

I still would take a flier on him myself, but he's no longer going to be ahead of Andrus/Escobar in my rankings.

I wonder how much Kevin is either projecting differently from others or not projecting at all in terms of his power: BA expects Castro to gain speed and power as he fills out and ages. I hadn't heard the speed deal before too much (beyond Canseco claiming that his leg strength gave him speed in the 80s), but that might be the difference between the industry hype on Castro and Kevin's sorta wet blanket (He was very careful in his answers to point out that he still considers him a fine prospect).

An underrated downfall of Castro is the prescence of Hu (I think, I'm sorry, but I have a block on his name). The Cubs have a lot of M-INF talent, and someone who can play SS will get moved off. It's not implausible for Castro to arrive in the show second and get moved off. Sure, G-Becks isn't the defender that Castro is, but he was moved off because of Ramirez, not because the team saw that he couldn't do it.
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Re: Prospects for Next Year

Postby kab21 » Wed Nov 18, 2009 10:09 pm

When I say overrated I don't mean he's not a top 100 prospect it's just that his AFL stats are being taken way out of context for a 100 AB sample. He might project for power down the road but a lot of prospects do that never realize it. And to date he hasn't shown much power at all anywhere. He could end up being a .300, 7 HR, 20SB guy since he has shown good ability to put the bat on the ball.
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Re: Prospects for Next Year

Postby Steve-o » Sun Dec 06, 2009 9:11 am

This is the first thing I have seen ranking the Cubs farm system. BA thinks they are somewhere in the 16-25. It's not as bad as I made it out to be, but it's certainly not a good system.
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Re: Prospects for Next Year

Postby Havok1517 » Sun Dec 06, 2009 6:33 pm

Baseball Beginnings write up on Castro

http://baseballbeginnings.com/2009/12/0 ... ro-report/
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Re: Prospects for Next Year

Postby Steve-o » Mon Dec 07, 2009 8:20 pm

Whoa. 70 power? That's almost 40 HR annually. With below average (45) power currently? I guess the kid is not even 20, but that's some development.
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Re: Prospects for Next Year

Postby Members Only Jackets » Wed Feb 03, 2010 4:11 am

...and how many HRs did Hanley hit in the minors? Nobody expected his power....not comparing , just saying. I would get in now and snag this guy up--for a wait and see approach. Premium position so why not? The guy is 19 for Godsake and killed the afl.
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Re: Prospects for Next Year

Postby kab21 » Thu Feb 04, 2010 12:57 am

Members Only Jackets wrote:...and how many HRs did Hanley hit in the minors? Nobody expected his power....not comparing , just saying. I would get in now and snag this guy up--for a wait and see approach. Premium position so why not? The guy is 19 for Godsake and killed the afl.


I'll take a similarly ranked prospect that has good upside AND has a record of good results instead of just hoping his power develops. He's a good prospect but I think overrated. If you can get him off the waiver wire and only drop a mediocre prospect then it's a no-brainer.

The AFL doesn't mean much to me. Everybody kills the AFL (it's more hitter friendly than the PCL) and it's only about 30 games.
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