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2010 Top 50 Prospects UPDATED 1/26

Postby oddmanout7 » Sat Nov 14, 2009 5:17 pm

Below is the list that I have compiled by looking at a few different lists and then tweaking it to reflect my own research. Let me know what you think.

1 Jason Heyward ATL – OF
2 Stephen Strasburg WAS – SP
3 Jesus Montero NYY – C
4 Mike Stanton FLA – OF
5 Pedro Alvarez PIT – 3B
6 Desmond Jennings TB – OF
7 Buster Posey SF – C
8 Neftali Feliz TEX – SP
9 Brian Matusz BAL – SP
10 Martin Perez TEX – SP
11 Justin Smoak TEX – 1B
12 Domonic Brown PHI – OF
13 Carlos Santana CLE – C
14 Chris Carter OAK – 1B
15 Alcides Escobar MIL – SS
16 Christian Friedrich COL – SP
17 Logan Morrison FLA – 1B
18 Mike Taylor PHI – OF
19 Ryan Westmoreland BOS – OF
20 Aroldis Chapman CIN – SP
21 Wade Davis TB – SP
22 Madison Bumgarner SF – SP
23 Jennry Mejia NYM – SP
24 Freddie Freeman ATL – 1B
25 Dustin Ackley SEA – OF
26 Aaron Hicks MIN – OF
27 Brett Wallace OAK – 3B
28 Yonder Alonso CIN – 1B
29 Fernando Martinez NYM – OF
30 Casey Crosby DET – SP
31 Starlin Castro CHC – SS
32 Matt Moore TB – SP
33 Jordan Lyles HOU – SP
34 Jeremy Hellickson TB – SP
35 Hector Rondon CLE – SP
36 Tanner Scheppers TEX – SP
37 Jhouyls Chacin COL – SP
38 Kyle Drabek PHI – SP
39 Tyler Matzek COL – SP
40 Tim Beckham TB – SS
41 Chris Winthrow LAD – SP
42 Casey Kelly BOS – SP
43 Ike Davis NYM – 1B
44 Mike Montgomery KC – SP
45 Grant Green OAK – SS
46 Ethan Martin LAD – SP
47 Todd Frazier CIN – 2B
48 James Darnell SD – 3B
49 Brett Lawrie MIL – 2B
50 Derek Norris WAS – C

Jonathon Mayo top 50

1 Jason Heyward ATL
2 Stephen Strasburg WAS
3 Mike Stanton FLA
4 Buster Posey SF
5 Brian Matusz BAL
6 Desmond Jennings TB
7 Neftali Feliz TEX
8 Pedro Alvarez PIT
9 Justin Smoak TEX
10 Madison Bumgarner SF
11 Carlos Santana CLE
12 Alcides Escobar MIL
13 Wade Davis TB
14 Domonic Brown PHI
15 Dustin Ackley SEA
16 Brett Wallace TOR
17 Kyle Drabek TOR
18 Martin Perez TEX
19 Jesus Montero NYY
20 Jeremy Hellickson TB
21 Jarrod Parker ARI
22 Starlin Castro CHI
23 Christian Friedrich COL
24 Tim Beckham TB
25 Logan Morrison FLA
26 Brett Lawrie MIL
27 Ryan Westmoreland BOS
28 Casey Kelly BOS
29 Aaron Hicks MIN
30 Yonder Alonso CIN
31 Jason Castro HOU
32 Mike Moustakas KC
33 Wil Myers KC
34 Julio Teheran ATL
35 Michael Taylor OAK
36 Dee Gordon LAD
37 Chris Carter OAK
38 Austin Jackson DET
39 Tanner Scheppers TEX
40 Drew Storen WAS
41 Aaron Crow KC
42 Jacob Turner DET
43 Mike Montgomery KC
44 Jhoulys Chacin COL
45 Jose Iglesias BOS
46 Michael Brantley CLE
47 Phillippe Aumont PHI
48 Juan Francisco CIN
49 Ethan Martin LAD
50 Jaff Decker SD


Keith Law top 50

1 Jason Heyward, OF, ATL
2 Stephen Strasburg, RHP, WAS
3 Carlos Santana, C, CLE
4 Buster Posey, C, SFO
5 Mike Stanton, OF, FLA
6 Desmond Jennings, OF, TAM
7 Martin Perez, LHP, TEX
8 Dustin Ackley, CF, SEA
9 Justin Smoak, 1B, TEX
10 Jesus Montero, C, NYY
11 Brian Matusz, LHP, BAL
12 Starlin Castro, SS, CHC
13 Neftali Feliz, RHP, TEX
14 Domonic Brown, RF, PHI
15 Wade Davis, RHP, TAM
16 Aroldis Chapman, LHP, CIN
17 Jeremy Hellickson, RHP, TAM
18 Casey Kelly, RHP, BOS
19 Aaron Hicks, RHP, MIN
20 Brett Wallace, 1B, TOR
21 Logan Morrison, 1B, FLA
22 Tyler Matzek, LHP, COL
23 Jenrry Mejia, RHP, NYM
24 Michael Taylor, OF, OAK
25 Zach Britton, LHP, BAL
26 Lonnie Chisenhall, 3B, CLE
27 Jaff Decker, OF, SDG
28 Madison Bumgarner, LHP, SFO
29 Tim Beckham, SS, TAM
30 Josh Vitters, 3B, CHC
31 Derek Norris, C, WAS
32 Ryan Westmoreland, OF, BOS
33 Chris Carter, 1B, OAK
34 Eric Hosmer, 1B, KAN
35 Pedro Alvarez, 3B, PIT
36 Christian Friedrich, LHP, COL
37 Jarrod Parker, RHP, ARI
38 Shelby Miller, RHP, STL
39 Dee Gordon, SS, LAD
40 Kyle Drabek, RHP, TOR
41 Wilmer Flores, 3B, NYM
42 Wilson Ramos, C, MIN
43 Arodys Vizcaino, RHP, ATL
44 Carlos Triunfel, 2B, SEA
45 Casey Crosby, LHP, DET
46 Simon Castro, RHP, SDG
47 Brett Lawrie, 2B, MIL
48 Jhoulys Chacin, LHP, COL
49 Mike Trout, OF, LAA
50 Jay Jackson, RHP, CHC


John Sickels Top 61

1. Jason Heyward, OF, Grade A
2. Stephen Strasburg, RHP, Grade A
3. Buster Posey, C, Grade A
4. Brian Matusz, LHP, Grade A
5. Pedro Alvarez, 3B, Grade A
6. Jesus Montero, C, Grade A
7. Desmond Jennings, OF, Grade A
8. Neftali Feliz, RHP, Grade A
9. Carlos Santana, C, Grade A


10. Justin Smoak, 1B, Grade A-
11. Madison Bumgarner, LHP, Grade A-
12. Aroldis Chapman, LHP, Grade A-
13. Martin Perez, LHP, Grade A-
14. Jeremy Hellickson, RHP, Grade A-
15. Wade Davis, RHP, Grade A-
16. Dustin Ackley, OF-2B, Grade A-
17. Chris Carter, 1B-OF, Grade A-
18. Mike Stanton, OF, Grade A-


19. Jenrry Mejia, RHP, Grade B+
20. Tanner Scheppers, RHP, Grade B+
21. Fernando Martinez, OF, Grade B+
22. Starlin Castro, SS, Grade B+
23. Michael Taylor, OF, Grade B+
24. Jordan Lyles, RHP, Grade B+
25. Todd Frazier, INF-OF, Grade B+
26. Yonder Alonso, 1B, Grade B+
27. Matt Moore, LHP, Grade B+
28. Jason Castro, C, Grade B+
29. Mike Trout, OF, Grade B+
30. Hank Conger, C, Grade B+
31. Trevor Reckling, LHP, Grade B+
32. Derek Norris, C, Grade B+
33. Drew Storen, RHP, Grade B+
34. Mike Montgomery, LHP, Grade B+
35. Freddie Freeman, 1B, Grade B+
36. Aaron Hicks, OF, Grade B+
37. Domonic Brown, OF, Grade B+
38. Ryan Westmoreland, OF, Grade B+
39. Casey Kelly, RHP, Grade B+
40. Dan Hudson, RHP, Grade B+
41. Donavan Tate, OF, Grade B+
42. Simon Castro, RHP, Grade B+
43. Jake Arrieta, RHP, Grade B+
44. Zach Britton, LHP, Grade B+
45. Dee Gordon, SS, Grade B+
46. Chris Withrow, RHP, Grade B+
47. Grant Green, SS, Grade B+
48. Josh Vitters, 3B, Grade B+
49. Wilmer Flores, SS, Grade B+
50. Logan Morrison, 1B, Grade B+
51. Brett Lawrie, 2B, Grade B+
52. Alcides Escobar, SS, Grade B+
53. Lonnie Chisenhall, 3B, Grade B+
54. Casey Crosby, LHP, Grade B+
55. Jacob Turner, RHP, Grade B+
56. Christian Friedrich, LHP, Grade B+
57. Tyler Matzek, LHP, Grade B+
58. Jhouhyls Chacin, RHP, Grade B+
59. Brett Wallace, 1B-3B, Grade B+
60. Zach Stewart, RHP, Grade B+
61. Kyle Drabek, RHP, Grade B+
Last edited by oddmanout7 on Thu Jan 28, 2010 4:36 pm, edited 8 times in total.
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Re: 2010 Top 40 Prospects

Postby RDD15 » Sun Nov 15, 2009 11:30 am

I hope that your list is right man, it would bode well for my keeper team.

I have:
3. Posey
4. Montero
6. Stanton
7. Matusz
8. Feliz
12. Brown
14. Morrison
22. Castro
26. Beckham

And I also had Strasburg but dealt him to help my Major League roster (Him and Granderson for G Beckham and Hamels) in May. 16 team league, and I can really only keep 7 of these minor leaguers. I also have Jarrod Parker, who would probably have been a top 15 guy on this list had Tommy John and James Andrews not have surfaced in Parker's life this summer.
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Re: 2010 Top 40 Prospects

Postby cardinal1975 » Sun Nov 15, 2009 9:14 pm

Your list is solid but you missed a few names I would have in my top 40 and also have some players ranked much higher than I would.

J.Mejia - I like Mejia's potential quite a bit but until I see a third pitch he has to be viewed skeptically as a guy that could be forced to the pen. Mejia's fastball is plus but the changeup is inconsistent as a 2nd pitch and still lacks a solid 3rd offering. In his defense I would point out he is young just 20 and has time but a ranking of 18 is too aggressive in my opinion....I would probably say 35-50.

H.Rondon - Another good prospect that should be a solid #3 type but really lacks the upside to be listed as high as #21 over high upside arms like Drabek and Friedrich and not as safe to be productive at the big league level as a few names I will list later.

T.Beckham - I think this is an example of not adjusting for how poorly he played and comments made by scouts this year. He really went backwards in the defensive department losing range and making many errors on the field. He also gained the wrong type of weight (lower mid-section/trunk) which slowed him down this season as was evidenced by stealing 13 bases and getting caught 10 times. Toss in the fact that many scouts are predicting he will move off SS to 2B or possibly 3B I can't help but ding him in the rankings going forward. I would have him in the 60-80 range.

E.Martin - Martin is another guy like Mejia that posted good peripheral stats (like his k rate) but still lacks the 3rd pitch at this point to go with a plus fastball and solid curve. His delivery is max effort and although he will be given every opportuniy to stay in the rotation, it is possible he may eventually get moved to the pen as well down the road. I would probably have him in the 60-70 range as he still has a long way to go.

Fernando Martinez - I know he has always been young for his level but at some point I think I need to see the production smewhere other than batting practice before I rank him as high as 16. He may have great potential but he always seems to get hurt even if he gets a starting job next year with the Mets he will have to hit in Citi Field which should negate some of his value. I could see him in the 30 range but 16 just seems way too high for me without much production.

Dustin Ackley - This is a hitter that should easily rank in the top 20 if not inside the top 15. He should hit for average, get on base at a good clip, steal bases, and have at least solid power while playing CF. I am hopeful that this is an oversight but his name must be included.

A.Escobar - If anyone thought Elvis Andrus was a solid fantasy SS last season then we have to view Escobar in much the same way. He should hit for a solid average, gets some walks, and steal 20-30ish bases while playing good defense. He is about as safe of a bet going into 2010 as a prospect could be as we know what he can do and what he can't and we know Milwaukee is giving him the job. I would probably have him in the 35-40 range going into 2010.

J.Chacin - Chacin pitched well in AA and AAA in 2009 and even posted 13 k's in 11 innings for Colorado. He should be in line for a rotation spot for the Rockies either in spring training or get the first crack at one when some goes down with an injury. He gets groundballs and has a plus changeup to go along with a good fastball and average curve. He is a much safer bet to be at least a #3 starter than Rondon and could be a #2 starter in a few years. He should be in the 20-30 range.

B.Wallace - Although he will likely move off 3B within a few years (if he stays their that long) he is an extrememly safe bet to hit around .300 with a good OBP and should develop at least 20 homerun potential. Wallace may not have a high ceiling but he wil be a very valuable hitter that has a low floor and will get every opportunity in Oakland to win a job in 2010 and should be a solid fantasy contributer for many years. I would have him in the 30-40 range.

All in all it's a solid list that only needed a few tweaks. ;-D
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Re: 2010 Top 40 Prospects

Postby oddmanout7 » Sun Nov 15, 2009 10:41 pm

The comments are appreciated, but I have a few comments of my own...

J.Mejia - I like Mejia's potential quite a bit but until I see a third pitch he has to be viewed skeptically as a guy that could be forced to the pen. Mejia's fastball is plus but the changeup is inconsistent as a 2nd pitch and still lacks a solid 3rd offering. In his defense I would point out he is young just 20 and has time but a ranking of 18 is too aggressive in my opinion....I would probably say 35-50. From what I have read/seen of him, he throws a mid 90s fastball with some sink that generates a good number of GB, similar to Pelfrey. His change has also been called a plus pitch, but he is still trying to get a feel for the control. His curveball is iffy, but being young I would expect him to continue to improve it.

H.Rondon - Another good prospect that should be a solid #3 type but really lacks the upside to be listed as high as #21 over high upside arms like Drabek and Friedrich and not as safe to be productive at the big league level as a few names I will list later.72 AA ip - 7.5(H/9) 2.0(BB/9) 9.1(K/9) and 74AAA ip 10.0(H/9) 1.6(BB/9) 7.7(K/9) He struggled when he got to AAA, but a lot of pitchers do. He throws in the low to mid 90s, has a good slider, and a decent change/curve. He is ranked this high, as I see him having a good chance of pitching some innings this season. I would say he has the potential to be a #2 starter.

T.Beckham - I think this is an example of not adjusting for how poorly he played and comments made by scouts this year. He really went backwards in the defensive department losing range and making many errors on the field. He also gained the wrong type of weight (lower mid-section/trunk) which slowed him down this season as was evidenced by stealing 13 bases and getting caught 10 times. Toss in the fact that many scouts are predicting he will move off SS to 2B or possibly 3B I can't help but ding him in the rankings going forward. I would have him in the 60-80 range. I am not a fan of Beckham by any means, but this rankings was based off a bunch of other rankings I have seen that have him even higher than I do. I agree at this point he is all potential, but he needs to show something this year.

E.Martin - Martin is another guy like Mejia that posted good peripheral stats (like his k rate) but still lacks the 3rd pitch at this point to go with a plus fastball and solid curve. His delivery is max effort and although he will be given every opportuniy to stay in the rotation, it is possible he may eventually get moved to the pen as well down the road. I would probably have him in the 60-70 range as he still has a long way to go.A lot of people don't realize that he just started pitching his senior year in HS. So he is still working out his mechanics. You can't teach velocity, and he has that. He also has a bull dog mentality, and the ability to dominate. I think he continues to progress, and I expect him to make a significant adjustment this season, and surprise a lot of people.

Fernando Martinez - I know he has always been young for his level but at some point I think I need to see the production smewhere other than batting practice before I rank him as high as 16. He may have great potential but he always seems to get hurt even if he gets a starting job next year with the Mets he will have to hit in Citi Field which should negate some of his value. I could see him in the 30 range but 16 just seems way too high for me without much production.He had 8HR in 176 AAA ABs with 11BB and 33K and was good enough for a .877 OPS. I think a lot of people forget that he is only just turned 21 years old. He still has time to continue to improve.

Dustin Ackley - This is a hitter that should easily rank in the top 20 if not inside the top 15. He should hit for average, get on base at a good clip, steal bases, and have at least solid power while playing CF. I am hopeful that this is an oversight but his name must be included.I am not a fan. He just missed making my top 40. He has great power potential, but I want to see him hit before I rank him as aggressively as some people are.

A.Escobar - If anyone thought Elvis Andrus was a solid fantasy SS last season then we have to view Escobar in much the same way. He should hit for a solid average, gets some walks, and steal 20-30ish bases while playing good defense. He is about as safe of a bet going into 2010 as a prospect could be as we know what he can do and what he can't and we know Milwaukee is giving him the job. I would probably have him in the 35-40 range going into 2010.I didn't include him because I consider him a major league guy, even though he still able to qualify for ROY.

J.Chacin - Chacin pitched well in AA and AAA in 2009 and even posted 13 k's in 11 innings for Colorado. He should be in line for a rotation spot for the Rockies either in spring training or get the first crack at one when some goes down with an injury. He gets groundballs and has a plus changeup to go along with a good fastball and average curve. He is a much safer bet to be at least a #3 starter than Rondon and could be a #2 starter in a few years. He should be in the 20-30 range.I really liked the guy, but in the majors he just looked over matched. He still has the talent, but right now for me he is probably in the 40-60 range.

B.Wallace - Although he will likely move off 3B within a few years (if he stays their that long) he is an extrememly safe bet to hit around .300 with a good OBP and should develop at least 20 homerun potential. Wallace may not have a high ceiling but he wil be a very valuable hitter that has a low floor and will get every opportunity in Oakland to win a job in 2010 and should be a solid fantasy contributer for many years. I would have him in the 30-40 range.Wallace moving off 3B, drops him a bit in my book. He has some solid potential, but Ks a bit too much for my liking. Probably another guy in the 40-60 range for me.
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Re: 2010 Top 40 Prospects

Postby jeffmerk » Mon Nov 16, 2009 12:31 pm

1 Jason Heyward ATL – OF
2 Stephen Strasburg WAS – SP
3 Neftali Feliz TEX – SP
4 Buster Posey SF – C
5 Justin Smoak TEX – 1B
6 Pedro Alvarez PIT – 3B
7 Mike Stanton FLA – OF
8 Brian Matusz BAL – SP
9 Carlos Santana CLE – C
10 Fernando Martinez NYM – OF
11 Jesus Montero NYY – C
12 Dustin Ackley SEA – OF
13 Madison Bumgarner SF – SP
14 Hector Rondon CLE – SP
15 Kyle Drabek PHI – SP
16 Martin Perez TEX – SP
17 Desmond Jennings TB – OF
18 Yonder Alonso CIN – 1B
19 Jeremy Hellickson TB – SP
20 Wade Davis TB – SP
21 Dominic Brown PHI – OF
22 Michael Taylor PHI – OF
23 Logan Morrison FLA – 1B
24 Chris Carter OAK – 1B
25 Freddie Freeman ATL – 1B
26 Alcides Escobar MIL – SS
27 Brett Wallace OAK – 3B
28 Tim Beckham TB - SS
29 Jhoulis Chacin COL – SP
30 Jake Arrieta BAL – SP
31 Tim Alderson PIT – SP
32 Christian Freidrich COL – SP
33 Jordan Lyles HOU – SP
34 James Darnell SD – 3B
35 Ethan Martin LAD – SP
36 Aaron Hicks MIN – OF
37 Mike Moustakas KC – SS
38 Aroldis Chapman FA – SP
39 Austin Jackson NYY – OF
40 Ryan Westmoreland BOS – OF
Revisions are likely...
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Re: 2010 Top 40 Prospects

Postby Steve-o » Tue Nov 17, 2009 12:37 am

I know it's been sooo long since last draft day, but I think that any list that has Heyward over Stephen Strasburg starts off flawed. There were scouts who believed that that Strasburg was the best free agent pitcher on the market last off season. Better than AJ Burnett. There was discussion over whether Strasburg was the best prospect ever. Not of the last 5 years, or 10, but ever.

Let's look at a really, really good prospect and compare those numbers to Heyward.

Player X: AAA at 18: .311/.359/.588 in 120 AB
Player X: AAA at 19: .360/.411/.654 in 215 AB
Heyward: AAA at 19. Only 10 AB.

Player X: AA at 18: .288/.391/.441 in 60 AB
Heyward: AA at 19: .352/.446/.611 in 160 AB

Player X: A at 18: .319/.371/.605 in 250 AB
Heyward: A at 19: .296/.369/. 519 in 190 AB

Heyward outperformed Player X in AA, but was a year older. Player X mashed at AAA as an 18 year old. In my opinion, Player X was a better prospect than Heyward. Player X was around when all the discussion about Strasburg was happening, so people were considering him when making their statements about Strasburg. Look, I understand that hitters are generally considered "safer" prospects, but when the ceiling is this elite, I think Strasburg is the top guy.
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Re: 2010 Top 40 Prospects

Postby jeffmerk » Tue Nov 17, 2009 7:43 pm

A list is flawed if the pitcher you have a man crush on is one spot behind where you think he should be? Seems like I heard the same kind of raves about Mark Prior not that long ago, and the poor Twins had to settle for Joe Mauer.
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Re: 2010 Top 40 Prospects

Postby warner892001 » Tue Nov 17, 2009 8:01 pm

I have a question-

I see that you have Freeman ranked higher than Alonso. Is Freeman closer to the majors, is he projected to be the better hitter? Why do you have Alonso ranked so low?

I have Votto in a keeper league and have been looking at prospects to put a hold on and I have Alonso on my bench. Will he be up next year and is he worth keeping or is Freeman the one to have over Alonso?
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Re: 2010 Top 40 Prospects

Postby Steve-o » Tue Nov 17, 2009 8:26 pm

jeffmerk wrote:A list is flawed if the pitcher you have a man crush on is one spot behind where you think he should be? Seems like I heard the same kind of raves about Mark Prior not that long ago, and the poor Twins had to settle for Joe Mauer.


Perhaps I used the wrong word when I said flawed. Also, I certainly don't have a man crush on Stasburg. Do a search for my screen name and Strasburg and you'll see that.

However, I do believe that 90% of all expert lists will have Strasburg first. If you don't have him first, you better be prepared to explain yourself. Also, I don't think you are proving anything by citing Mark Prior as an example since he was drafted after Mauer was.

Feel free to bring this up if I have to eat some crow.
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Re: 2010 Top 40 Prospects

Postby mblax10 » Tue Nov 17, 2009 9:41 pm

Steve-o wrote:However, I do believe that 90% of all expert lists will have Strasburg first. If you don't have him first, you better be prepared to explain yourself.


I would take that bet in a heartbeat. Heyward is the top prospect and nobody needs to justify ranking him their, especially when the context is fantasy baseball. I don't know who you consider "experts" but well over 10% of them will have Heyward #1.
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