You inherited a team with that list of prospects. Wow. You could move the top 7 around quite a bit based on personal preference. Frazier I think will be a better MLB player than fantasy player for reasons listed below. And the 4 grouped with him are each interesting upside guys several years away that are interchangeable to some degree.
Jesus Montero (NYY – 1B,C,DH) Pedro Alvarez (Pit – 3B) Carlos Santana (Cle – C) Hector Rondon (Cle – SP) Michael Taylor (Phi – OF) Kyle Drabek (Phi – SP) Logan Morrison (Fla - 1B)
Brett Lawrie (Mil – 2B) Aaron Hicks (Min – OF) Ethan Martin (LAD – SP) Todd Frazier (Cin – 2B,SS,1B,OF) - he's going to be a solid MLB'er but I'm not sure about his fantasy potential. Is he a .290, 85R, 15 HR, 85 RBI, 5 SB upside guy? If he moves to LF then he becomes even more uninteresting especially in 12 team leagues. He's like the mark DeRosa that you pick up from the waiver wire to fill a hole imo. Grant Green (Oak – SS)
Alvarez - I personally think he's the elite hitter in this group right now Montero - If he moves off catcher he's middle of the pack here Drabek - He has the pedigree but also injury history Martin - I think he could be the top pitcher in the minors next year Hicks - There is just something about him that makes me take notice, good at everything Santana - I see him as a VMart clone, only is he stays at C though Taylor - Blocked, but he's the best Philly OF prospect in my mind Frazier - If he stays at 2B and move Phillips to SS then I think he could be a Top 10 2B Green - A year ago he might of been close to the top of this list, Tulo and Longoria comparisions Lowrie - I have a feeling he's the starting 2B for the Brewers at the end of 2010 season Morrison - I'm just not sure about his power potential, could be good or could be Overbay Rondon - Haven't seen enough a lot of him, needs refinement from what I've seen
Well I'll disagree with Havok on a few things as usual (my list is posted above).
I think Montero is the elite hitting prospect even if he's at 1B. his combination age (19), level (A+/AA), power (.225 isoP last year), low K/AB (12.5%) and acceptable BB rate (7.5%) I think put him 2nd to Heyward in this years hitting prospects. It would be better if he stayed at catcher and if he walked a little more. But it's kind of hard to walk when you have excellent plate coverage and put balls into play instead of ending up in deeper counts. Just as a comp to Alvarez (whom is very good also) he was almost 3 yrs younger playing at the same levels putting up a similar isoP (.225 to .250) and a similar K/BB (although Alvarez had alot more of each). And I just love the low K rate of Montero. Almost elite plate coverage for someone with his power.
Overbay is a concerning comp for Morrison. I guess that I'm hopeful that the power is there since '08 was spent in one of the worst hitting environments in the minors (Jupiter in the FSL) and in '09 he suffered the dreaded hand/wrist injury. But he does need to show some power otherwise he falls down to or below Frazier in my list. good MLB players but a lower tier starter in 12 team leagues.
Hicks and Martin certainly have some of highest upside on the list but their '09 was neither great nor disappointing. Hicks needs to control the K's and develop that power but becoming another McCutchen is a solid possibility. martin needs to find the strike zone but he's got great stuff. I guess in fantasy I like my prospects to be closer to MLB ready so I can use them and open that spot up for the next phenom so I knock them down a little because of it.
I highly doubt that Lawrie is called up in 2010. But he is the future at 2B for the Brewers. Put up some good numbers in the tough (for hitters) midwest league.
I'm also a bigger fan of rondon than most but we're talking about a 21 yr old that posted a 23% K rate with a 5% BB rate splitting the season between AA/AAA. He needs a little refinement but those are pretty incredible numbers.
Well, one thing you have to consider is where Montero will play because he can't catch and he's not taking Teixera's spot which leaves him at DH as long as he stays with the Yankees. Alvarez went to Vandy and was largely considerd the top talent in college for two years until be drafted by the Pirates. Baseball America also ranked Alvarez the #1 top prospect in the Eastern League with Montero as #5. Also, Alvarez built on that performance on Team USA as he was likely the best performer on that team too. I see Alvarez as a Aramis Ramirez like player and see Montero as a VMart type with maybe a little more power potential because of age. Alvarez I think could hit close to 40 HR annually while I don't see that power production from Montero. Granted Montero I think will hit for higher average but I think Alvarez will have a higher HR, RBI, BB, SLUG%, and OBP% than Montero will though he'll strikeout more. Plus, Alvarez at 3B compared to Montero at 1B/DH gives him the slight edge on position desirability.
Something to note on Todd Frazier is that he hit 16 HR with 77 RBI in the .300 BA range but racked up 42 doubles which could be a big sign of future HR potential.
I am going to disagree with you Havok. I do not see Alvarez as anything close to Aramis Ramirez as a hitter other than both hit for power and currently play 3B for the time being. Ramirez has only had 100 k's in a big league season just once and that year he had exactly 100 k's. His career strikeout % is 15.2 where as his career walk rate is 7.5%. In his minor league career Ramirez showed excellent plate discipline with 223 walks/261 k's in 1802 plate appearances.
Alvarez for instance walks at a higher rate (13.2%) while striking out out a very high pace (27.7%) between High A and Double A ball. I think a better comp and more realistic hitter to be compared to would be Adam Dunn. I think with a high rate of k's like Alvarez it's safe to say his batting average will probably be in the .240-270 range year to year depending upon his BABIP.
I also side with Kab21 that Montero is an elite hitting prospect by showing power at a young age and controlling the strike zone while hitting for average. I agree that Montero won't be a full time catcher or there at all but there is no denying that his bat will play at any other position including 1B, DH, or LF. If a hitter is elite why should we downgrade him simply because we do not see an opening in the lineup of his current organization? My guess is the Yankees will either find a spot for him in LF or DH or even play him 15-30 games at catcher if they keep him or else he will traded for another need and get his shot with another team and hit the cover off the wall there.
As far as BA ranking Alvarez over Montero in the Eastern League, I really don't see this as a big deal because Montero is almost 3 years younger than Alvarez and at the same level and producing arguably as well if not better than Alvarez. Last year BA ranked Jeremy Hellickson below Jeremy Jeffress in the Florida State League. Michael Taylor was ranked below Scott Cousins and Jeffress in the same league. Montero was ranked below Angel Villalona in the South Atlantic League. Freddie Freeman was ranked below Nick Noonan in the same league. Which of those guys would you rather have? The one BA ranked higher last year or the better player who was ranked lower? BA does a great job ranking prospects but they miss or under-rank guys all the time or some players break out while others plateau.
I have no problem with anyone giving Alvarez the edge right now as he should be adequate at 3B for a few years but I see this as quite a bit closer if not favoring Montero long term. I also see Carlos Santana as no worse than 3rd behind Montero and Alvarez and possibly higher when you consider Santana is going to stick at catcher and most experts do not think Alvarez stays at 3B long term and likely moves to 1B within 2-4 years which would negate an advantage Alvarez has as far as position eligibility.
I heart Montero. I think he potentially has a chance to be an elite bat regardless of where he plays. and is the VMart comp anything more than great hitting catcher that has questionable defense? why not Piazza then?
Alvarez is a really good prospect, I just have Montero as the 3rd best overall prospect right now (Strasburg and Heyward) with Alvarez in the 10-ish range.
the one thing that gives me a pause about Santana is that he's made an absolute mockery of A+ at age 22 last year and AA at age 23 and he isn't getting moved up during the season. now maybe they are taking it slow to give him time to develop his defense.
I know things are slow around here, but the Montero/Alvarez debate is pretty fruitless. They're both uber prospects that should both be in everybody's top 10's this winter. Picking one over the other comes down to personal preference.
Comparing both Montero & Santana to V-Mart exemplifies why making MLB comparisons is generally bad practice. Is every hit first catcher with questionable defense the next V-Mart? Montero is much bigger, has much more raw power and much more advanced skills at the plate for his age. He really has a special bat that will have value even as a DH. That being said, I slightly prefer Alvarez because he likely stays at 3B, has enormous power and a great approach at the plate. I'm willing to write off his low AVG in High A to being board by low competition. Not the best thing attitude wise, but he should be an all-star hitter real soon. Either way both are elite and should be more like 1a & 1b not 1 & 2.