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NL Cy Young?

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Who do you like for the NL Cy Young in 2009?

Tim Lincecum
14
41%
Chris Carpenter
5
15%
Adam Wainwright
12
35%
Dan Haren
1
3%
Javier Vazquez
2
6%
 
Total votes : 34

Re: NL Cy Young?

Postby BitterDodgerFan » Wed Sep 23, 2009 12:40 am

Big Pimpin wrote:Lincecum clearly deserves it. But the Bill James formula likes Wainwright.

man, and he's got zack greinke 3rd for AL CY. greinke is easily CY.
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Re: NL Cy Young?

Postby Ender » Wed Sep 23, 2009 12:51 am

Halladay should win the AL CY and it really isn't much of a competition, I guess the voters will probably go with Sabathia probably as a gimme since he should have probably won the NL CY last year but just had the split season thing going on and they seem to hate picking a pitcher on a bad team.
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Re: NL Cy Young?

Postby GiantsFan14 » Wed Sep 23, 2009 2:42 am

Ender wrote:
zhutou wrote:
Ender wrote:I'd have to go with Wainwright. He has pitched more innings, has just as good an ERA and has more wins than Lincecum and his team is going to the playoffs. I don't see how the voters will pass on him.

The best pitcher in the NL this year has probably been Vazquez (Lincecum is a very close 2nd and Haren a close 3rd) and I doubt he even gets a vote though.


please explain



Vazquez has better peripherals than any other pitcher in the NL, plays in a tougher division than Haren or Lincecum and in about the same style park as Lincecum at least. If you want to go by actual talent displayed this year alone Vazquez has had the best season.


How exactly are his peripherals better than Lincecum's? He has a better walk rate but that's pretty much it, Tim beats him in every other category.

K/9
Lincecum: 10.52
Vazquez: 9.78

BB/9
Vazquez: 1.89
Lincecum: 2.68

H/9
Lincecum: 6.7
Vazquez 7.4

HR/9
Lincecum: 0.43
Vazquez: 0.79

Lincecum also has a 2.33 FIP to Vazquez's 2.73 and has faced pretty comparable opposition (Lincecum batters faced .725 OPS, Vazquez batters faced .731 OPS). Pretty much disagree that Vazquez has displayed better actual talent this year than Lincecum.
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Re: NL Cy Young?

Postby GiantsFan14 » Wed Sep 23, 2009 2:47 am

Lincecum has been much better than Wainwright and deserves it but the voters will probably end up going with Wainwright. (also they gave it to timmy last year despite webb having the 22 wins to tim's 17.)

I'd probably give the AL cy to Greinke. Halladay isn't a bad choice and CC would be a terrible choice imo.
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Re: NL Cy Young?

Postby mweir145 » Wed Sep 23, 2009 3:22 am

Ender wrote:Halladay should win the AL CY and it really isn't much of a competition, I guess the voters will probably go with Sabathia probably as a gimme since he should have probably won the NL CY last year but just had the split season thing going on and they seem to hate picking a pitcher on a bad team.

16 of Halladay's 30 starts have been against the top 4 offenses in baseball (using OPS) compared to 5 out of 31 with Greinke. The difference between the quality of his opponents and everyone else's is just enormous.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/stati ... cid=520412

Of course...the voters didn't take that into account last year when he actually won 20 games, so it's not going to happen this year.

I'm still thinking CC wins in the AL and my current pick in the NL is Carpenter.
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Re: NL Cy Young?

Postby bigh0rt » Wed Sep 23, 2009 8:03 am

mweir145 wrote:
Ender wrote:Halladay should win the AL CY and it really isn't much of a competition, I guess the voters will probably go with Sabathia probably as a gimme since he should have probably won the NL CY last year but just had the split season thing going on and they seem to hate picking a pitcher on a bad team.

16 of Halladay's 30 starts have been against the top 4 offenses in baseball (using OPS) compared to 5 out of 31 with Greinke. The difference between the quality of his opponents and everyone else's is just enormous.

So is the difference between Toronto's Gold Glove defense and Kansas City's Little League defense.
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Re: NL Cy Young?

Postby Ender » Wed Sep 23, 2009 8:25 am

So is the difference between Toronto's Gold Glove defense and Kansas City's Little League defense.


Defense is mostly taken out of the equation when you use peripherals to judge a pitcher.

How exactly are his peripherals better than Lincecum's? He has a better walk rate but that's pretty much it, Tim beats him in every other category.

K/9
Lincecum: 10.52
Vazquez: 9.78

BB/9
Vazquez: 1.89
Lincecum: 2.68

H/9
Lincecum: 6.7
Vazquez 7.4

HR/9
Lincecum: 0.43
Vazquez: 0.79

Lincecum also has a 2.33 FIP to Vazquez's 2.73 and has faced pretty comparable opposition (Lincecum batters faced .725 OPS, Vazquez batters faced .731 OPS). Pretty much disagree that Vazquez has displayed better actual talent this year than Lincecum.


HR/FB is as luck based as BABIP so that isn't a strength. FIP isn't really much better than ERA because it fails to correct for HR/FB. Instead of HR/FB or HR/9 I'd look at GB% which tells a much better story.

Lincecums xFIP is 2.93 this season, his GB% is 46.4%.
Vazquez's xFIP is 2.91 this season his GB% is 42%.

Their skillsets are extremely close so you could easily go either way once personal preference come in. But if you are going to base it just on some random stat I'd much rather use xFIP than anything else like WAR, tRA or FIP which are all biased by ignoring HR/FB. Of course the reality is the voters are looking at what happened and not at skillset so Vazquez isn't really in the equation.
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Re: NL Cy Young?

Postby Big Pimpin » Wed Sep 23, 2009 11:47 am

Ender wrote:
zhutou wrote:
Ender wrote:I'd have to go with Wainwright. He has pitched more innings, has just as good an ERA and has more wins than Lincecum and his team is going to the playoffs. I don't see how the voters will pass on him.

The best pitcher in the NL this year has probably been Vazquez (Lincecum is a very close 2nd and Haren a close 3rd) and I doubt he even gets a vote though.


please explain



Vazquez has better peripherals than any other pitcher in the NL, plays in a tougher division than Haren or Lincecum and in about the same style park as Lincecum at least. If you want to go by actual talent displayed this year alone Vazquez has had the best season.


Depends on what you believe by "talent displayed". The only metric that will tell you that Vazquez has been better than Lincecum is xFIP. The problem with xFIP is that the only adjustment it makes is for HR/FB. So, if you want to ding Timmy because he's given up less HRs than he should have (which I won't argue with), then you should also ding Vazquez for all the line drives he's given up, which should have been more damaging than they were. That's why I like tRA*, because it adjusts for all those things. So basically, you can only argue that Vazquez has been better than Lincecum if you decide it's fair to adjust for Lincecum's "good luck" but see no reason to adjust Vazquez in the same fashion.
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Re: NL Cy Young?

Postby Big Pimpin » Wed Sep 23, 2009 11:50 am

BitterDodgerFan wrote:
Big Pimpin wrote:Lincecum clearly deserves it. But the Bill James formula likes Wainwright.

man, and he's got zack greinke 3rd for AL CY. greinke is easily CY.


Well Greinke is leading now, but Felix has 3 more starts to Zack's 2. I will agree that Greinke is clearly the most deserving, however.
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Re: NL Cy Young?

Postby GiantsFan14 » Wed Sep 23, 2009 1:32 pm

yes, for the most part HR/FB is luck based, but i do believe there will be cases where a very good pitcher or a very bad pitcher can have a skillset which allows him to have a lower or higher HR/FB than average. The last 3 years Tim has a HR/FB of .73 (rookie year), .44 and .43. At one point does he go from being lucky to having a skill which suppresses the HR/FB?

and as BP said you're trying to take luck out of picture for lincecum (when i don't think we can be sure he has been that lucky). but you aren't taking luck out of the equation for vazquez. yes, vazquez has been very good and will probably be completely overlooked by voters, but i still don't think he was as good as timmy. he's not even better by your way of comparison as their xfips are pretty much the same.
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