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Carlos Gonzalez, OF COL

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Re: Carlos Gonzalez, OF COL

Postby Dan Lambskin » Fri Aug 28, 2009 2:23 pm

thejusman1 wrote:
Dan Lambskin wrote:
thejusman1 wrote:
Geez, you guys are anal about definitions. Go ahead and trade for Carlos Gonzalez for your playoff stretch run and into the playoffs. Let me know how that works out for you. The point I was trying to make is that an unproven batter who has played less than the full season last year while batting .242, and only has 171 ABs this year is an unreliable, unproven, green, "rookie" option. Think of it like relying on Scherzer or Price for the stretch-run. You can spout all you want about the exact definitions of "rookie" players, bring up smart-mouthed responses quoting MLB, but I don't think there's any argument in saying Carlos Gonzales is a very green, unproven, and risky option, and to have traded anything of value to acquire him is not a wise fantasy move. In my book, his overall inexperience makes him a rookie, no different than the other mid-season call-ups last year, and like the others, more inclined to be a bust than a boom.

But, nah, since he's played over the 45 days on an MLB roster, he's not a rookie at all. %-6


ahh...so like Ryan Braun a few years ago...i hope no teams relied on him :-°


Hey, I'm Dan Lambskin, let me bring up another example that isn't applicable because Braun played over 113 games, logging in 450+ ABs in his "rookie year," and CRUSHED the ball and has gone on to become an everyday, franchise, elite slugger, whereas Carlos Gonzales had a very forgettable 302 AB debut last year, and has logged less than 175ABs this year. There are literally hundreds of examples of hot-hand rookies streaking for a few weeks that never amount to anything more than a backup/utility player. If you want to pay to acquire that via trade, be my guest. If you want to thrust that player into your playoff lineups, I hope I'm facing you that week. But selective memory of the very few breakout players who make a significant impact their rookie year is ignoring the overwhelming statistical evidence pointing in the opposite direction.

Here's a more illustrative example:
Chris Davis, 295AB's last year, .285-51-17-55, taken around the 5th-6th round in this year's drafts, even though his K:BB ratio was very poor, and you can still grab a lot of proven, veteran talent in that round. He's the most hyped bust of 2009, and the FA is littered with such examples.


i'm not saying the guys a stud or should be taken with a top 50 pick next year or that you should trade [instert proven vetern] for him, but at this point in the year playing the hot hand is a fine strategy. what if you're in a "must win" game to make the playoffs...you starting a proven vet who's slumping or a guy tearing the cover off the ball the last 2 weeks? if you catch him at the end of his streak...oh well, better luck next year. same with Roto...if you're locked in a tight battle throw the names out the window and play the guy that's producing
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Re: Carlos Gonzalez, OF COL

Postby fezzik » Fri Aug 28, 2009 2:26 pm

I understand the logic of not paying for the absurd numbers he's put up the last month, but this comment...

thejusman1 wrote:Hopefully you didn't trade anything of value for him. It'd be a pretty dumb move to trade decent value away for an unproven, rookie prospect, even if he is highly regarded, especially this close to the playoffs. Did you trade a struggling Brian Roberts for a red-hot Emilo Bonifacio in Week 1 as well?


...manages to be absurd, condescending, and misinformed all wrapped up into one tidy package.

The premise of what you're arguing is fine...sure he's very young, inexperienced, hasn't proven himself. But he's been labeled as a top prospect and he has been performing at an elite level lately. To say he has no value is silly. He has some decent value...even in a redraft league. ;-D
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Re: Carlos Gonzalez, OF COL

Postby bazzy_51 » Fri Aug 28, 2009 2:40 pm

up until the cut on his hand he was a feature in my starting lineup. why not ride the hot streak, in the playoffs or not this kid is still worth what hes contributed and will still contribute to your squad. but there again hes out again for a while with the hand that he re-injured in Thursday nights game, diving for a ball.

anyone know specifics on this injury? i know some had said it only took 1 stitch, but im wondering seens how they keep calling it a 'puncture wound' how much that knife actually messed up in his hand. even with only one stitch, if it went straight in and sliced some tendons/muscle in his hand this could be a bigger issue. not saying it is, and don't want to dramatize this situation, but he aggravated this injury diving for a fly ball and said that "It was a really bad pain," he told the Denver Post "All the swelling and everything started again. My hand started getting big and purple." that doesn't sound too sexy at all, swelling and turning purple? sounds like there could be some more structural damage then just a slice in the surface skin that required 1 stitch?
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Re: Carlos Gonzalez, OF COL

Postby thejusman1 » Fri Aug 28, 2009 2:51 pm

fezzik wrote:I understand the logic of not paying for the absurd numbers he's put up the last month, but this comment...

thejusman1 wrote:Hopefully you didn't trade anything of value for him. It'd be a pretty dumb move to trade decent value away for an unproven, rookie prospect, even if he is highly regarded, especially this close to the playoffs. Did you trade a struggling Brian Roberts for a red-hot Emilo Bonifacio in Week 1 as well?


...manages to be absurd, condescending, and misinformed all wrapped up into one tidy package.

The premise of what you're arguing is fine...sure he's very young, inexperienced, hasn't proven himself. But he's been labeled as a top prospect and he has been performing at an elite level lately. To say he has no value is silly. He has some decent value...even in a redraft league. ;-D


I'm not saying he has no value, just very little, and the type of value you can find again and again on the WW. I have no aversion to picking up rookie players. In fact, Gordon Beckham is manning 3B for me with David Wright down, and he's as green as they come. But say we're talking about a one-year, non-keeper league; what value do these players really hold beyond their "hot streak?" Can we really expect them to maintain such a torrid pace? Are they valuable enough to trade away a decent component of your team? As free agency pick-ups, these guys are pretty valuable because they come together as stop-gap measures for your team at the cost of nothing. Once you begin to dismantle your team and sacrifice decent parts to grab the hot hand, you start opening up holes and I tend to believe you lose value overall.

Forgive my condescension; I am a Dodgers fan, and I hate everything about the Rockies.
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Re: Carlos Gonzalez, OF COL

Postby Dan Lambskin » Fri Aug 28, 2009 2:55 pm

thejusman1 wrote:
fezzik wrote:I understand the logic of not paying for the absurd numbers he's put up the last month, but this comment...

thejusman1 wrote:Hopefully you didn't trade anything of value for him. It'd be a pretty dumb move to trade decent value away for an unproven, rookie prospect, even if he is highly regarded, especially this close to the playoffs. Did you trade a struggling Brian Roberts for a red-hot Emilo Bonifacio in Week 1 as well?


...manages to be absurd, condescending, and misinformed all wrapped up into one tidy package.

The premise of what you're arguing is fine...sure he's very young, inexperienced, hasn't proven himself. But he's been labeled as a top prospect and he has been performing at an elite level lately. To say he has no value is silly. He has some decent value...even in a redraft league. ;-D


I'm not saying he has no value, just very little, and the type of value you can find again and again on the WW. I have no aversion to picking up rookie players. In fact, Gordon Beckham is manning 3B for me with David Wright down, and he's as green as they come. But say we're talking about a one-year, non-keeper league; what value do these players really hold beyond their "hot streak?" Can we really expect them to maintain such a torrid pace? Are they valuable enough to trade away a decent component of your team? As free agency pick-ups, these guys are pretty valuable because they come together as stop-gap measures for your team at the cost of nothing. Once you begin to dismantle your team and sacrifice decent parts to grab the hot hand, you start opening up holes and I tend to believe you lose value overall.

Forgive my condescension; I am a Dodgers fan, and I hate everything about the Rockies.


you dont know what he gave up...you dont know how deep his league is...you dont know what his needs are...not everyone plays in 10 team public yahoo leagues
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Re: Carlos Gonzalez, OF COL

Postby Surfs up » Fri Aug 28, 2009 3:33 pm

I traded away Dukes who in my mind is dead wood anyway. I also received Feliz the kid from Texas for Romero who has two tough outtings coming up and I need help with my Whip and ERA.
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Re: Carlos Gonzalez, OF COL

Postby thejusman1 » Fri Aug 28, 2009 4:19 pm

Surfs up wrote:I traded away Dukes who in my mind is dead wood anyway. I also received Feliz the kid from Texas for Romero who has two tough outtings coming up and I need help with my Whip and ERA.


See, that's a fantastic trade. Dukes has upside, but isn't performing at all and hardly anything decent. I have no qualms with trading these fringe players and hoping to land the proverbial lightning in a bottle. Straight-up trades like that are kinda odd, though. Dukes plays OF and so does CGonz. It's like saying, "I think your guy is better than my guy at the exact same position, let's switch!" A more realistic trade would be sending a useful reliever, or a back-end starting pitcher, or another positional player. In that case, I don't subscribe to the belief that trading away a piece like Jim Johnson (34%) or a back-end pitcher like Hiroki Kuroda (24% owned) would be worth it, because players who have hot streaks like CGonz (16% owned) are a dime a dozen, and fade relatively quickly.
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Re: Carlos Gonzalez, OF COL

Postby Havok1517 » Fri Aug 28, 2009 10:07 pm

thejusman1 wrote:
Surfs up wrote:I traded away Dukes who in my mind is dead wood anyway. I also received Feliz the kid from Texas for Romero who has two tough outtings coming up and I need help with my Whip and ERA.


See, that's a fantastic trade. Dukes has upside, but isn't performing at all and hardly anything decent. I have no qualms with trading these fringe players and hoping to land the proverbial lightning in a bottle. Straight-up trades like that are kinda odd, though. Dukes plays OF and so does CGonz. It's like saying, "I think your guy is better than my guy at the exact same position, let's switch!" A more realistic trade would be sending a useful reliever, or a back-end starting pitcher, or another positional player. In that case, I don't subscribe to the belief that trading away a piece like Jim Johnson (34%) or a back-end pitcher like Hiroki Kuroda (24% owned) would be worth it, because players who have hot streaks like CGonz (16% owned) are a dime a dozen, and fade relatively quickly.


huh? Gonzalez imo is worth more than Dukes no matter the position. The fact that they play the same position means that they the team receiving CGon upgraded that position.
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Re: Carlos Gonzalez, OF COL

Postby West » Fri Aug 28, 2009 11:30 pm

thejusman1 wrote:
Surfs up wrote:I traded away Dukes who in my mind is dead wood anyway. I also received Feliz the kid from Texas for Romero who has two tough outtings coming up and I need help with my Whip and ERA.


See, that's a fantastic trade. Dukes has upside, but isn't performing at all and hardly anything decent. I have no qualms with trading these fringe players and hoping to land the proverbial lightning in a bottle. Straight-up trades like that are kinda odd, though. Dukes plays OF and so does CGonz. It's like saying, "I think your guy is better than my guy at the exact same position, let's switch!" A more realistic trade would be sending a useful reliever, or a back-end starting pitcher, or another positional player. In that case, I don't subscribe to the belief that trading away a piece like Jim Johnson (34%) or a back-end pitcher like Hiroki Kuroda (24% owned) would be worth it, because players who have hot streaks like CGonz (16% owned) are a dime a dozen, and fade relatively quickly.


Alright... you've made your completely asinine...utterly obvious...point.. young players are unpredictable and unproven and you shouldn't trade too much value for them. OH please, let me hang out with you some more so that your infinite wisdom can rub off on me?

Straight-up trades like that are kinda odd, though.

Straight up trades are SO weird. Dukes is slumping, hard. His OPS has been hovering at barely .700 since May. Gonzalez was on fire. (before his hand problems.) Why not make that trade? Wait...it's an outfielder for an outfielder... yeah I shouldn't do that because it's just too obvious. Only really boring, lame managers would make that trade. Not a Maverick like THEJUSMAN!

It's like saying, "I think your guy is better than my guy at the exact same position, let's switch!"

I think "Surfs Up" actually said those EXACT words when he accepted that trade... so weird

You've made it so painfully obvious that you're aware of Gonzalez' major league numbers last year. What you've failed to notice is that at the tender age of 22 most major leaguers not named Pujols aren't able to figure out major league pitching.

And now you say - "But he sucked so bad in those 300 at bats which are such a good indicator of future success so he has no track record blah blah blah"

And now I point you to CGonz's AAA line this year - .339 .418 OBP .630 SLG 1.048 OPS 22:32 BB:SO 10HR 58 RBI in 48 games.
Add to that he's been a highly touted 5 tool prospect since he was in the Diamondbacks system, plus the fact that he now plays half of his games in Colorado in a great lineup on a great team, and you've got a player worth adding. It's a good thing some of us are able to analyze number from more than one year at one level.

"Oh but you shouldn't trade real value for him if you are you're an idiot..."

Just keep on beating that poor dead horse...maybe someone will listen...
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Re: Carlos Gonzalez, OF COL

Postby AussieDodger » Fri Aug 28, 2009 11:42 pm

thejusman1 wrote:Hey, I'm Dan Lambskin, let me bring up another example that isn't applicable because Braun played over 113 games, logging in 450+ ABs in his "rookie year," and CRUSHED the ball and has gone on to become an everyday, franchise, elite slugger, whereas Carlos Gonzales had a very forgettable 302 AB debut last year, and has logged less than 175ABs this year. There are literally hundreds of examples of hot-hand rookies streaking for a few weeks that never amount to anything more than a backup/utility player. If you want to pay to acquire that via trade, be my guest. If you want to thrust that player into your playoff lineups, I hope I'm facing you that week. But selective memory of the very few breakout players who make a significant impact their rookie year is ignoring the overwhelming statistical evidence pointing in the opposite direction.

Here's a more illustrative example:
Chris Davis, 295AB's last year, .285-51-17-55, taken around the 5th-6th round in this year's drafts, even though his K:BB ratio was very poor, and you can still grab a lot of proven, veteran talent in that round. He's the most hyped bust of 2009, and the FA is littered with such examples.


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