If you believe the average projections from the mainstream fantasy sources, (14 sources) Estrada's numbers are very similar to a Toby Hall, who is normally dafted sooner. They have R. Hernandez as getting more AB so his numbers look a little better...but not 'enough better' to justify the very large discrepancy in draft position.
Estrada: 402AB/12HR/54RBI/48RUN/1SB/.273AV/.716OPS
T Hall: 433AB/13HR/57RBI/52RUN/0SB/.271AV/.721OPS
Hernandez: 464AB/17HR/71RBI/66RUN/0SB/.266AV/.752OPS