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Has it come to this?

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Re: Has it come to this?

Postby Neato Torpedo » Fri Aug 07, 2009 12:28 am

By the way, he's not only been hitting home runs, he's been crushing them.

http://www.hittrackeronline.com/detail. ... ype=hitter

Each of his last seven HR have been 430+, with three over 450 and one titanic 481 foot blast (longest HR in the majors this year).
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Re: Has it come to this?

Postby Snakes Gould » Fri Aug 07, 2009 2:00 am

Neato Torpedo wrote:By the way, he's not only been hitting home runs, he's been crushing them.

http://www.hittrackeronline.com/detail. ... ype=hitter

Each of his last seven HR have been 430+, with three over 450 and one titanic 481 foot blast (longest HR in the majors this year).


yikes.

ill still pass.
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Re: Has it come to this?

Postby AKhomebrewer » Fri Aug 07, 2009 2:59 am

Guess I'm with Yoda and Snakes on this one. Great for Reynolds (and good for his owners) if he repeats this next season. But I'm not prepared to pay for 2009 in my 2010 draft.
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Re: Has it come to this?

Postby JTWood » Fri Aug 07, 2009 7:38 am

Yoda wrote:No way I would bet on Reynolds repeating next year. If he repeats, then good for him.

Agreed. I am in "all in" mode in my contract league, so this Reynolds career year thing couldn't have happened at a better time.

My fire sale this off-season should be fruitful. ;-D
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Re: Has it come to this?

Postby The Artful Dodger » Fri Aug 07, 2009 1:57 pm

I don't believe there's any doubt Reynolds possesses serious power, but I'd probably associate drafting Reynolds within the first five rounds as the equivalent to drafting Adam Dunn so high. He surely has the power to support a 30-35 HR campaign at the least, but he still strikes out a lot (on pace for 212 K) which can make him more prone to average fluctuations year to year. If that average is on the downside (let's say .250), he'd need to support that with premium power and double-digit stolen bases. That said, even though Reynolds has a lousy contact rate, he's not quite as clueless as his strikeout rate makes him out to be. Also, the fact that the quality at 3B has been at a dearth this year, will mean that there's some justification for Reynolds being taken in the first 4-5 rounds easily. Would I draft him first round? No I wouldn't, it's like drafting Ryan Howard at scarcer position with more risk, but I believe 4th/5th round is where I'd roll the dice (I doubt he goes that far down next year).
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Re: Has it come to this?

Postby Maris09 » Fri Aug 07, 2009 3:21 pm

I think I'd rather have Reynolds over Howard next year.
But then I've never owned Howard and wouldn't be taking either guy in the 1st round.
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Re: Has it come to this?

Postby jake_harv88 » Fri Aug 07, 2009 4:08 pm

Reynolds has Adrian Beltre written all over him. Take him in the first round if you want but I'll wait for him to do it again before I even think about drafting him that high...
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Re: Has it come to this?

Postby JTWood » Fri Aug 07, 2009 5:00 pm

jake_harv88 wrote:Reynolds has Adrian Beltre written all over him.

Interesting... I thought you were crazy when I read that, but then I saw this:

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And also this:

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Of course, there is this slight difference between them:

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And Reynolds strikes out more than any human in the history of baseball.
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Re: Has it come to this?

Postby jackie hayes » Fri Aug 07, 2009 6:21 pm

Beltre and Reynolds are not very similar. The question with Beltre was mostly power. No one doubts the power is real when it comes to Reynolds. The worry is that the steals disappear and his average falls to .230. He's not going to morph into a 15-20 homer guy.
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Re: Has it come to this?

Postby JTWood » Fri Aug 07, 2009 6:43 pm

But Beltre hit over 20 HRs in 7 of his 10 full seasons, and in 3 of the 4 seasons since his money year, he had at least 25 HRs.Reynolds had 28 HRs last year, and as the charts show above, they have very similar SLG% for their age. Reynolds is a tick better, but the difference isn't massive. On the other hand, Reynolds strikes out about one million times more often than Beltre, and has had a worse average.

At most, the difference between them is probably 15 points of BA in Beltre's favor and 5 HRs in Reynolds' favor.
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