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Has it come to this?

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Has it come to this?

Postby Zito is God » Thu Aug 06, 2009 9:37 pm

Based on projected stats for the rest of the season according to current trends, Mark Reynolds will finish no less than 40/25 this season. Coupled with an inevitable 100 RBI AND 100 R campaign and the fact that he plays the most coveted position in fantasy baseball, 3B, which is about as low on talent as possible, he seems like he is a 1st round pick next season. I don't want him because I am too scared to spend a 1st rounder on something that doesn't scream "consistent", but do you honestly see reynolds being drafted in the 1st consistently next season?
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Re: Has it come to this?

Postby jackie hayes » Thu Aug 06, 2009 9:51 pm

Check out the thread on the top 25 for next year -- a lot of debate on Reynolds there. If he keeps up his pace, I think he'll be low first through the end of the second round, falling into the third occasionally. Probably not "consistently" drafted in the first, but it won't surprise anyone, either.
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Re: Has it come to this?

Postby Amatter32 » Thu Aug 06, 2009 10:27 pm

I thought 2B or Catcher were the lowest on talent and 3B is the deepest after OF and 1B.
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Re: Has it come to this?

Postby Zito is God » Thu Aug 06, 2009 10:48 pm

2B is loaded now IMO. I doubt anyone would disagree. C is always low, but not as much is expected from that position as from others. 3B looks scary for next year.
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Re: Has it come to this?

Postby Yoda » Thu Aug 06, 2009 10:49 pm

No way I would bet on Reynolds repeating next year. If he repeats, then good for him.
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Re: Has it come to this?

Postby LloydChristmas » Thu Aug 06, 2009 11:54 pm

I really don't get why Reynolds' production is taken with such a grain (more like a whole shaker) of salt.

He just turned 26, his first three years in the majors he hit 17, 28, and 32+ homers. His career average is a mediocre but serviceable-for-fantasy-purposes (and probably improving in the future) .263.

The only part of his game that's questionable are the steals. But I really see them as a cherry-on-top for a third baseman who seems to be a 40/115/.265 hitter.
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Re: Has it come to this?

Postby converge241 » Thu Aug 06, 2009 11:56 pm

Performance wise for 5 by 5 last year he played roughly like a 10th rounder for roto (value wise) and of course was bought at much less than that im sure. Team to team the average killing could have hurt less or more (if they were insulated or not).

Right now this year hes playing like 1st round value (and again I doubt he was drafted higher than say that 10th round figure this year for the most part. I didnt see him going anywhere that high but maybe in some leagues, but even still hes outproducing that)

I dont think its crazy to see him produce like a 1st -5th round type player next year after 2 very helpful fantasy years (and he provided some production in 07 as well).

I have seen enough from him to know he can help a fantasy team. Problem is though his price will really be inflated..so even if he does well you are getting exactly what you paid, or overpaid, for and seeing no "profit" on a low investment. Even worse is the high drfat pick and he DOES totally fall apart.

In some leagues everyone might let the guy drop to a reasonable price out of that same risk and eventually someone will pull the trigger as a value pick/bid. If youre in an auction, what a great guy to throw out 1st as im sure there will be many varying opinions on him. No one will be 100% sure what to bid.

I had this same discussion a lot around this time last year about Quentin. Great to get on that low investment but how is it working out for people who spent 2nd and 3rd round picks on this guy (and I did see him go there). I know he got hurt but thats the problem - he gets hurt every year. At some point health is a skill. Even if he was healthy and he matched what he did last year (before he got hurt at the end)..you got what you paid for at full cost.

Better to get the "next Reynolds" or "next Quentin" on the cheap IMO

On the position talk: 3B really fell this year. For a while 3B just wasnt an issue in most leagues, people worried about 2B/SS/C to varying degress depending on league format and peoples opinions about what was scarcer

in my larger leagues this year i only had trouble at times with SS or 3B all other positions (including 2B and C) didnt really have any issues for me. That's not a good sign for 3B. Taking out two 1st round type guys in most leagues (Miggy and Braun) from that 3B pool didnt help that!


I wouldnt invest a lot in him, but great for people who got him at a cheap price and can keep him for a low amount/low pick.
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Re: Has it come to this?

Postby converge241 » Fri Aug 07, 2009 12:03 am

I'll add that in one keeper league I am in an owner sent:

Ibanez, Lester, the rights to Strasburg, and Adam Laroche for Reynolds (and Scutaro, and some roster flexibility)

Now you see that and your eyes bug out but you got two owners who believe in what Reynolds is doing (and he has a lower cost to keep a 14th rounder or so) and one wont give him up without getting a lot and the other is willing to pay a lot. Theres mitigating factors like all the others cost to keep and keeper limitations and all but the foundation of the deal is wanting Reynolds and paying a hefty price for him and his keeper rights.

I would have never paid all that, but maybe it will work out for him!
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Re: Has it come to this?

Postby Zito is God » Fri Aug 07, 2009 12:07 am

Lester+Ibanez+Strasburg (assuming he signs) is an absolute steal for Reynolds. I would likely trade him for JUST Lester+Strasburg personally.
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Re: Has it come to this?

Postby LloydChristmas » Fri Aug 07, 2009 12:07 am

converge241 wrote:Performance wise for 5 by 5 last year he played roughly like a 10th rounder for roto (value wise) and of course was bought at much less than that im sure. Team to team the average killing could have hurt less or more (if they were insulated or not).

Right now this year hes playing like 1st round value (and again I doubt he was drafted higher than say that 10th round figure this year for the most part. I didnt see him going anywhere that high but maybe in some leagues, but even still hes outproducing that)

I dont think its crazy to see him produce like a 1st -5th round type player next year after 2 very helpful fantasy years (and he provided some production in 07 as well).

I have seen enough from him to know he can help a fantasy team. Problem is though his price will really be inflated..so even if he does well you are getting exactly what you paid, or overpaid, for and seeing no "profit" on a low investment. Even worse is the high drfat pick and he DOES totally fall apart.

In some leagues everyone might let the guy drop to a reasonable price out of that same risk and eventually someone will pull the trigger as a value pick/bid. If youre in an auction, what a great guy to throw out 1st as im sure there will be many varying opinions on him. No one will be 100% sure what to bid.

I had this same discussion a lot around this time last year about Quentin. Great to get on that low investment but how is it working out for people who spent 2nd and 3rd round picks on this guy (and I did see him go there). I know he got hurt but thats the problem - he gets hurt every year. At some point health is a skill. Even if he was healthy and he matched what he did last year (before he got hurt at the end)..you got what you paid for at full cost.

Better to get the "next Reynolds" or "next Quentin" on the cheap IMO

On the position talk: 3B really fell this year. For a while 3B just wasnt an issue in most leagues, people worried about 2B/SS/C to varying degress depending on league format and peoples opinions about what was scarcer

in my larger leagues this year i only had trouble at times with SS or 3B all other positions (including 2B and C) didnt really have any issues for me. That's not a good sign for 3B. Taking out two 1st round type guys in most leagues (Miggy and Braun) from that 3B pool didnt help that!


I wouldnt invest a lot in him, but great for people who got him at a cheap price and can keep him for a low amount/low pick.


Great analysis. It all comes down to relative value. Like so many other more "academic" areas (equities, bonds, real estate), fantasy baseball is a game of finding improperly valued players.
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