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yahoo's season pitcher rankings messed up?

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Re: yahoo's season pitcher rankings messed up?

Postby fezzik » Wed Aug 05, 2009 4:05 pm

Looking at the rankings a little closer, it seems that the ratio categories (era/whip) are not taking IP into account when given value. If that's the case, it's clearly a huge flaw.
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Re: yahoo's season pitcher rankings messed up?

Postby thejusman1 » Wed Aug 05, 2009 5:15 pm

Yahoo is a joke. I'm strongly urging my commissioner to switch to ESPN next year. Do they have any explanation for why Stat Tracker receives game updates at the speed of a tortoise?
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Re: yahoo's season pitcher rankings messed up?

Postby Fantasy Sports Genie » Wed Aug 05, 2009 6:18 pm

re: not taking IP into account
Definitely not true

re: StatTracker
Asked, explained, and fixed.
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Re: yahoo's season pitcher rankings messed up?

Postby fezzik » Wed Aug 05, 2009 7:36 pm

Fantasy Sports Genie wrote:re: not taking IP into account
Definitely not true


Okay, that's good. I'm just trying to help figure out your problem from looking at patterns in the pitcher rankings...maybe you'll have more luck than myself.
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Re: yahoo's season pitcher rankings messed up?

Postby BitterDodgerFan » Wed Aug 05, 2009 11:38 pm

i suppose if your team is in need of some pitching, now's the time to buy em low (guys like verlander) with their horrible ranking, that is before it gets fixed. ;-7
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Re: yahoo's season pitcher rankings messed up?

Postby fezzik » Thu Aug 06, 2009 12:30 am

Fantasy Sports Genie wrote:re: not taking IP into account
Definitely not true


If you want I can take a look at the algorithm. I have a B.A. in Mathematics. Perhaps a fresh pair of eyes would help? Just an offer...obviously I would do it just for the fun of it because I enjoy solving problems...maybe offer some free suggestions on tweaking it to get more accurate player rankings.
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Re: yahoo's season pitcher rankings messed up?

Postby jackie hayes » Thu Aug 06, 2009 12:08 pm

Fantasy Sports Genie wrote:Here is what I can tell you...

...

- I'm not convinced that the main thing freaking people out is entirely wrong. There is a big cluster of pitchers in the middle of the rankings who are essentially of neutral value. Often these are guys who haven't pitched much/at all. Those guys don't help or hurt your ERA or WHIP. They have minimal impact on saves since very few guys get saves anyway. They hurt you in wins and strikeouts. There is definitely going to be a set of pitchers that actually hurt you, because their ERA and WHIP pulls you down more than their wins and K's (or saves) pull you up. Having seen the math behind this, I think people would be surprised at where that line is. I think people have a gut feeling that says, "But he's a starting rotation pitcher! He can't be worse than a guy who doesn't even pitch!" That's simply not true.

...



This is what I have a hard time with. It's not that a starter can't be a negative contributor overall. Liriano's ratios would certainly hurt more than the 4 wins and 100-odd strikeouts would help. But "that line" is set far too harshly, whatever it is. Michael Bowden is ranked 267 overall, with 2 ip and 2 ks. Sure, the ratios are nice, but they clearly have virtually no effect on any team. Any reasonable ranking algorithm would have to conclude that Neftali Feliz (#263) and Bowden have contributed about the same amount as pitchers who haven't thrown a pitch at all this year.

But going by that (ie, drawing the line for 'pitchers better than an empty spot' around that point in the rankings), Yahoo apparently concludes that there are only about 40 sp worth owning this year. And even that includes a good number of relievers, who haven't accumulated many innings (Fogg, Clippard, Morales, eg), and brand spanking new starters (new for 2009, at least) who've only had a couple turns (Latos, Lehr, Gorzelanny). Most anyone drawing only from that group (and leaving the other spots blank) in roto would be in first in era/whip, and dead last in strikeouts and wins. Meanwhile, Carlos Zambrano, whose only real negative is a high whip (1.35), is ranked 519.

Having such a high ranking for an empty spot has to reflect either that it's better to punt the counting stats than to have a Zambrano on your team (which doesn't seem to be a winning strategy, since at best you get an average ranking of 6.5 out of wins, strikeouts, era, and whip), or that the replacement innings (waiver wire pitchers) yield better stats than Zambrano (which seems very doubtful).

(Btw, yes, I am assuming roto instead of h2h -- not because I think it's 'better', but just because it gives a decent baseline. It's tougher to analyze h2h because of all the many strategies available.)
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Re: yahoo's season pitcher rankings messed up?

Postby ensanimal » Thu Aug 06, 2009 5:50 pm

I think it is whip that is inflating some rankings. My very in depth research start and ends with the top 2 pitchers, ranked 2nd and 3rd overall.

Haren - 155 ip's, 11 w, 149 k, 2.38 era, 0.88 whip
Lincecum - 156.2 ip's, 12 w, 191 k, 2.18 era, 1.05 whip

Similar innings pitched, but Harden is ranked higher even though he has 1 less W, 42 less K's, 0.2 worse ERA, but a better whip by 0.17.

:-B
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Re: yahoo's season pitcher rankings messed up?

Postby BitterDodgerFan » Thu Aug 06, 2009 6:06 pm

i wish pitcher ranking formula was just left alone to begin with...

not very safe to implement a change during the season and mess up the rankings. :-/
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Re: yahoo's season pitcher rankings messed up?

Postby DVauthrin » Thu Aug 06, 2009 7:08 pm

If you use yahoo ranks(or any other provider's ranks) as the primary reason for accepting or declining a trade you deserve what you get.
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