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"I value hitters more than pitchers"

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Re: "I value hitters more than pitchers"

Postby RAmst23 » Tue Jul 28, 2009 3:46 pm

hot4tx wrote:We've all read articles showing 3 MRPs equaling the stats of an elite SP, however, you can't use extra batters to patch together an elite hitter. You can't add 3 late round OFs to get your team the same stats a Ryan Braun can produce.


Whoa, wait.. are you telling me my Rick Ankiel, Cody Ross, Hideki Matsui combo isn't as valuable as I thought it was?
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Re: "I value hitters more than pitchers"

Postby Roger LaFrancois » Tue Jul 28, 2009 4:05 pm

I am going to be contrary here.

Recently in a standard 5x5 roto league I was offered Lincecum for Pujols. Now I declined the trade because my team was already doing well in pitching. But I started to think about the relative contributions here.

Now Pujols is a theoretical contributor in 5 categories (although his skill set is 4) while Lincecum can only contribute in 4 categories, However in a 1250 inning limit league, if Lincecum pitches 208 innings (last year he pitched 227 innings), his innings would be about 1/6 of the total innings. Since a lineup has 9 positions, it is only possible for the contributions of Pujols to be 1/9 relative to the categories.

From this view, it seems like the ace starting pitcher is more valuable because he has a greater percent of contribution than the ace batter.

Now I can't help but think there is a hole in this analysis because it is contrary to conventional wisdom, but for the life of me I don't know what it would be.
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Re: "I value hitters more than pitchers"

Postby KCollins1304 » Tue Jul 28, 2009 4:10 pm

The problem with pitchers isn't that they can't provide as much value as hitters, it's that their future performance is a lot harder to predict because there is so much variation from year to year or even month to month. It's been stated several times in the thread already and is the end all be all of hitter vs. pitcher arguments, but people want to keep beating their drums.
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Re: "I value hitters more than pitchers"

Postby Roger LaFrancois » Tue Jul 28, 2009 4:24 pm

KCollins1304 wrote:The problem with pitchers isn't that they can't provide as much value as hitters, it's that their future performance is a lot harder to predict because there is so much variation from year to year or even month to month. It's been stated several times in the thread already and is the end all be all of hitter vs. pitcher arguments, but people want to keep beating their drums.

As a Brandon Webb (former) owner this intuitively makes sense and I have read that is the case. Still I would like to read some study that verifies this (as a Beltran owner in another league).
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Re: "I value hitters more than pitchers"

Postby FouLLine » Wed Jul 29, 2009 5:44 pm

Shaffe wrote:So I've been trying to move Halladay in my keeper league for a stud hitter I can carry over to 2010. I've got a bunch of middle of the road keepers that I am comfortable keeping, but only so many spots. We keep 10 and I've got 5 no-brainers and a list of 10-15 other guys who are possibles, ranging from Shin Soo Choo to Gordan Beckham and Matt Garza to Joakim Soria.

So I've been shopping Halladay around, trying to package something with him even, to get a stud hitter to add to my keeper list as my offense has really been holding me back this year. My last straw just got rejected which was Halladay and Kendry Morales for Ryan Braun with the line "I value hitters more than pitchers".

Call me crazy, but I really don't get this line of thinking that I'm running into from everybody I talk to. Maybe I'm the idiot, but in a 5x5 league the 5 pitching categories, and 4 that a stud starter contributes positively to, count just the same as a stud hitter who is good in 4 categories of 5. I never thought it would be so hard to trade Roy freaking Halladay for a hitter worthy of a year-in year-out top 5 starting pitcher and Cy Young contender. Am I completely off in my value assessment of Halladay or is my league just unwilling to trade top tier talent for top tier talent? The guy I'm trying to get Braun from asked in a roundabout way if I would throw Carl Crawford in %-6 .


You don't consider Gordon Beckham a no brainer keeper"?

That trade was extremely fair. Yes you are obviously conceding to the fact that Braun (hitter) is worth more than Halladay (pitcher) by throwing in Kendry Morales who currently has 20 HRs and will be 27 next year (great potential keeper). Even Braun for Halladay straight up would go through in all my leagues. Yes, I'd be jealous but I wouldn't think it to be so unfair that I would object it. Especially in the later half of the season when both players have produced top notch numbers.


Yes, I too like most value hitting way more than pitching. I mainly value hitters more during the draft because pitchers are way more fragile / less consistent with a bit more up and down season to season. But come mid season when you need something you have to go out and get what you need so your team can compete. Regardless if you have to over pay some or use a top hitter to bring in a top pitcher. By this time in the season you pretty much know who has a healthy arms arm, who is likely to break down or become injured, what type of season the pitcher is having and how well they are throwing currently.

But anyway here's why hitters are more valuable than pitchers. In all formats except maybe weekly head to head leagues where you can stack pitching.

- In roto leagues a hitter has a chance to produce in all 5 hitting categories. Whereas starters can only produce in 4 categories as they cannot get saves outside of a freak incident.
- Closers have a high turnover rate, sporadic production, low innings to weight your ratios over the whole year, low win totals, and insane injury rates.
- There are more SPs than any other offensive position. There are more RPs than SPs. Depth is on your side (usually).
- Pitchers develop faster than hitters. Tons of young arms will get called up that can prove to be more than fantasy relevant.
- Pitchers seem to break out harder and more often than hitters. (not a valid fact, but my opinion based off of my experience).
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Re: "I value hitters more than pitchers"

Postby J35J » Wed Jul 29, 2009 11:02 pm

FouLLine wrote:But come mid season.....


This is where I see it as well....preseason and during the draft you'll want to value hitters over pitchers but once things shake out throughout the season and you've got a good lay of the land pitchers come ever so close to = hitters, IMHO. On production alone pitchers are pretty equal to hitters but for all the reasons stated throughout the thread you can't rely on them as much going into a season but when you've got more to go on and as things start to shake out the questions start to become more clear on the pitchers and its easier to put a value on them. Halladay going into the season was like a 3rd-5th rounder and rightfully so but right now he should be valued for what he is....give or take an early 2nd round value or so... again just how I see it.

But since its a keeper league Braun becomes more valuable and Halladay a little less valuable.
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Re: "I value hitters more than pitchers"

Postby Padres Fan » Wed Jul 29, 2009 11:26 pm

I don't really follow the "I value hitters over pitchers" line of reasoning, I try to draft evenly and even got some WTF comments due to drafting closers early, I am in only one keeper league this season and it was auction so it was harder to draft evenly but got Miguel Cabrera and Adrain Gonzalez, well late may I decided that I would trade Miggy since his keeper value was going to be $52 towards my cap ($260) whereas Gonzo would account for $19, at the time I was in 7th place (12 teams) and 27 points back. I ended up traded to the 2nd rank team Miggy and Matt Lindstrom for Joe Nathan, Adam Wainwright, Hunter Pence and Hank Blalock (I needed him since Alex Gordon got hurt and garrett Atkins sucked, and withing 2 weeks I was in first place and havent relinquished yet whereas they guy that got Miggy is now in 6th place, and since I extremely overpaid for Miggy in auction it makes him difficult to keep especially since he has Howard, Reyes, Wright and Lincecum as well, and every one here was callin g me stupid for attempting the trade but I trusted my gut.
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Re: "I value hitters more than pitchers"

Postby mblax10 » Thu Jul 30, 2009 7:59 am

Roger LaFrancois wrote:I am going to be contrary here.

Recently in a standard 5x5 roto league I was offered Lincecum for Pujols. Now I declined the trade because my team was already doing well in pitching. But I started to think about the relative contributions here.

Now Pujols is a theoretical contributor in 5 categories (although his skill set is 4) while Lincecum can only contribute in 4 categories, However in a 1250 inning limit league, if Lincecum pitches 208 innings (last year he pitched 227 innings), his innings would be about 1/6 of the total innings. Since a lineup has 9 positions, it is only possible for the contributions of Pujols to be 1/9 relative to the categories.

From this view, it seems like the ace starting pitcher is more valuable because he has a greater percent of contribution than the ace batter.

Now I can't help but think there is a hole in this analysis because it is contrary to conventional wisdom, but for the life of me I don't know what it would be.


My head just asploded.
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Re: "I value hitters more than pitchers"

Postby hot4tx » Thu Jul 30, 2009 12:08 pm

Roger LaFrancois wrote:I am going to be contrary here.

Recently in a standard 5x5 roto league I was offered Lincecum for Pujols. Now I declined the trade because my team was already doing well in pitching. But I started to think about the relative contributions here.

Now Pujols is a theoretical contributor in 5 categories (although his skill set is 4) while Lincecum can only contribute in 4 categories, However in a 1250 inning limit league, if Lincecum pitches 208 innings (last year he pitched 227 innings), his innings would be about 1/6 of the total innings. Since a lineup has 9 positions, it is only possible for the contributions of Pujols to be 1/9 relative to the categories.

From this view, it seems like the ace starting pitcher is more valuable because he has a greater percent of contribution than the ace batter.

Now I can't help but think there is a hole in this analysis because it is contrary to conventional wisdom, but for the life of me I don't know what it would be.


That's an interesting way to look at it. I'd argue that

1) as many have stated elite pitchers tend to range in value more than elite hitters, so you can't look back with 20/20 hindsight. That higher risk that the #1 SP won't be the #1 SP afterall (see also Santan, Johan) or higher long-term injury risk may push hitters ahead of them. I haven't taken the time to sort the data to prove that more top pitchers have long-term (at least multiple months) injuries than top hitters, I think that's the conventional wisdom. Again that greater risk in selecting a pitcher (whether risk of injury or risk that his performance won't live up to his price) is a lot of the reason why some select elite hitters over elite pitchers for the most part.

2) I'd argue the replacement value of an elite hitter is much higher. Its impossible to replace the value of Albert Pujols or Chase Utley or Miguel Cabrera with non-elite players (again you can't assume you were the one that got lucky and grabbed Raul Ibanez every year) but you can get close to replacing elite pitcher's value on a per IP basis (assuming you're in roto) using MRPs.

3) If you aren't in roto you aren't held to that 1250 IP limit. So maybe instead of Lincecum pitching 200/1250 of your innings, he's actually pitching 200/1500 or 200/2000 and would be less and less a part of your "overall" pitching stats. Also because there's no max IP limit in most HTH having greater quality depth at SP is just as valuable as having one or two elite SPs. Because of this you can value elite hitters over elite pitchers and then round out your staff with mid-round SPs (while teams drafting elite SPs are drafting hitters and backup hitters since their hitters will have more ?s) and still compete with any staff in the league.

... but that total team body of work view of pitching value is pretty interesting.
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Re: "I value hitters more than pitchers"

Postby Polar Bear » Thu Jul 30, 2009 2:31 pm

Why is it that you want an elite hitter instead of that elite pitcher?

Trading is relative to me. I trade based on my team's needs, not the players value...necessarily. Obviously I am not trading Lincecum for Abreu, but I am not going to demand Pujols either. Last year I traded Lincecum and Halladay for Matt Holliday. People were upset because they said I gave away too much. a month later I still had the best pitching in the league because I was loaded with great pitchers and didn't need Lin and Halladay to win. Pitchers are much easier to replace than elite hitters.

In my keeper league there was a guy who built a team based on pitching. He had Dan Haren, Lincecum, Kershaw, Hamels, Halladay, Scherzer and Chamberlain. He also has a solid core of tier 3 guys. You know where he is ranked in my keeper league? 12th. His pitchers, as great as they are, are only slightly above .500 in the counting categories and really only dominant in percentage categories. He isn't even competitive in the offensive categories. Why? because you can't just build a team with average offensive players in a competitive league or else you will get smoked. You don't have to sell your soul for the long ball, but you need to have good hitters.

I know if someone ever sent me a trade of Lincecum for Pujols I would send them a counter with the comment "Are you smking crack" attached to it.

I'm not trying to be insulting, but I have only seen the pitcher heavy strategy work a couple times. Each time it was because the guys nailed a few of their late round picks.
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