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Midseason Top 45 Prospects

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Re: Midseason Top 50 Prospects

Postby Big Pimpin » Thu Jul 30, 2009 2:00 pm

FouLLine wrote:Hyperbole is not the correct literal term you are trying to use here... I'm not sure what is, but hyperbole is surely not it. A hyperbole is an intentional and extreme exaggeration used to prove a point. Such as, "Wow, that took forever." When in fact this statement would ever be true unless it was being used to describe an eternity. That guy was obviously being serious.

"Pitching wins championships" would be more of a baseball cliche than anything. There is nothing with in that statement that was an intentional exaggeration.


Eh, I see it being both a baseball cliche and an extreme exaggeration. We can argue about whether or not it was intentional but I have to assume that it was. :-B Not that it matters, because pitching clearly doesn't win championships. :-b
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Re: Midseason Top 50 Prospects

Postby FouLLine » Fri Jul 31, 2009 12:44 pm

Big Pimpin wrote:
FouLLine wrote:Hyperbole is not the correct literal term you are trying to use here... I'm not sure what is, but hyperbole is surely not it. A hyperbole is an intentional and extreme exaggeration used to prove a point. Such as, "Wow, that took forever." When in fact this statement would ever be true unless it was being used to describe an eternity. That guy was obviously being serious.

"Pitching wins championships" would be more of a baseball cliche than anything. There is nothing with in that statement that was an intentional exaggeration.


Eh, I see it being both a baseball cliche and an extreme exaggeration. We can argue about whether or not it was intentional but I have to assume that it was. :-B Not that it matters, because pitching clearly doesn't win championships. :-b


Remember baseball is a game that is designed to be dominated by pitching. If a guy can get a hit 30% of the time he is considered a good hitter. The reason people say pitching wins championships is because it has in the past. Granted it takes everything hitting, fielding, and pitching to win a championship. But there are seasons when good pitching turns great in the post season and just dominates.

2005 Chicago White Sox. Starting pitching carried that team, hands down. This was the most dominate performance ever in the playoffs of the modern ear... bar none.

2008 The Phillies best ERA in the post season. There were 4 teams with more wins than the Phillies in the regular season. Yet The Phillies still dominated and went 11 - 3 in there championship run. They beat Tampa Bay (who had the best ERA in the AL in the 2008 post season).

2007 The Boston Red Sox 2nd best ERA in the post season. Only beat out by the Arizona Diamondbacks who didn't play nearly as many games nor pitch against an AL lineup. The Red Sox beat the Colorado Rockies who had the 3rd best ERA in the post season.

2006 The St. Louis Cardinals best ERA in the post season. They were by far the worst team in the playoffs going into the post season with only 83 wins. Yet they beat the Detriot Tigers (who had the 2nd best ERA in the post season) in the World Series.

2004 The Red Sox (best ERA in the AL for the post season) sweept the Cardinals (best ERA in the NL for the post season).

I'm not saying that I value pitchers more than hitters. But if this above evidence is undeniable. I'm not going to sit here and hinge and entire team on pitching. But when it counts in a 7 game series it is much easier and more likely that you can be carried by your pitching staff than your lineup and even more likely than your team being carried by defense.

There's a reason why "pitching wins championships" is a cliche in baseball where as "pitching doesn't win championships" is not a cliche. No matter the argument here weather if pitching wins championships is true or not, you saying pitching does not win championships is far more incorrect than someone saying it does win championships.
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Re: Midseason Top 50 Prospects

Postby FouLLine » Fri Jul 31, 2009 12:56 pm

To get back on topic.

27 Michael Saunders SEA – OF: Same age as guys like Brett Wallace, Pedro Alvarez, Justin Smoak, and Buster Posey... Yet out producing all of those names and he's done it while being in AAA all season long. Yes him being in the PCL takes a bit away from his numbers and him being a Mariners prospect also drops his appeal some but I personally would bump him considerably. Somewhere in the low 20's. Struggling a bit in the majors right now over a small sample size. But still getting every day playing time.

28 Dustin Ackley SEA – OF: I like Dustin Ackley but I also feel he's a touch over rated. The consensus going into the 2009 draft was, "Strasburg, Ackley, then field..." Yes Ackley was clearly the best hitter in college this year but that was just due to a weaker draft class than years in the past. 2008 and 2005 were monster draft classes for college hitters. 2006 not so great for hitters outside of Longoria but '06 was a monster draft for pitching. One thing I do like about Ackley is that in his 3 years in college he OPSed higher than 1.000 every year and every year his OPS went up. Again though he's a Mariner so hold that against him. All in all this is about where I have him on my minor league board.

29 Kyle Drabek PHI – SP: A very solid prospect. I believe he is over rated for a few reasons. First he is reguarded a bit high by baseball insiders just because of his lineage being the son of former Pirates pitcher Doug Drabek. Secondly his inflated high A ball numbers this year. Drabek like his father isn't much of a strikeout pitcher. But just due to being under matched in high A ball his K/9 was huge. The 6.5 K's per 9 innings he is boasting in AA right now seems more realistic than the 10.8 K/9 he had in high A ball earlier in the year. He drops down a few spots on my board. I have pitchers such as Neftali Feliz, Matt Moore, Jason Knapp, and Martin Perez all ranked higher than Drabek.

30 Josh Vitters CHC – 3B: Came out of the gate strong but his numbers dropped of a bit. But an .886 OPS for a 19 year old in A ball is still very good. He has struggled very hard since his promotion to high A ball. Yes he's still young for that age level so there's no reason to panic there. Especailly when you consider how much his contact rate has improved from A ball to high A ball. He went from striking out every 6.405 AB in A ball to striking out every 9.778 AB in high A ball.

31 Lars Anderson BOS – 1B: Another guy I figure to be highly over rated. He's got the whole Boston hype behind him. He also has had insanely high BABIP's every year in the minors. In 2007 at A ball he had a .363 BABIP in A ball and a .440 in a 47 plate appearance sample in high A ball. In 2008 he had a .367 BABIP in high A ball and a .435 after a 163 plate appearance sample in AA. Even this year with his numbers being down he is still sporting a .338 BABIP. He isn't showing any signs of improvement with his post All-Star numbers reading 7 for 41 with 2 doubles and no HRs. His strikeouts are through the roof striking out every 3.154 AB compared to striking out every 3.87 AB pre All-Star break. He is still very young and has a lot of room to grow. This being said I drop him down on my list into the late 30's.


32 Freddie Freeman ATL – 1B: I have Freddie Freeman ranked way higher than Lars Anderson. Freddie Freeman 2 years younger than Lars Anderson already shows much better plate discipline. In Advanced A ball he was striking out every 6.22 AB! Which is very good for a young hitter. Since being promoted to AA his contact rate has improved drastically over a 69 AB sample he has only 5 K's which is a K every 13.5 AB! Over that same span he also has 4 walks. He like Lars Anderson has also had inflated BABIP's over his minor league career. His Advanced A BABIP was .341 and his current BABIP in AA right now is .323, which is much closer to reality. He has an overall XBH rate of 33.33% exactly this year in the minors. In AA so far his XBH rate is 36.36%.

33 Nick Weglarz CLE – OF: He consistently puts up mid .800 OPSes at every level. At the same time he is a bit younger than average at every age level. He has shown solid contact rates over the past two years. Even better BB/K ratios, he was just under 1 BB per 1 K last year and this year at AA he has 60 BB's to 62 K's. His patience is well beyond his age at this point. His .242 average right now in AA is bound to go up when he encounters some better luck. His BABIP so far this year is only .262 so he's bound to raise his average considerably. You have to love his .211 IsoP. I have him ranked in the late 30's right behind Lars Anderson.

34 Jason Castro HOU – C: A 1st round pick out of college in 2008. Shows solid numbers especially for a catcher. Scouts say he is an easy transition guy. He has very solid BB/K ratios. This year all together between advanced A and AA his BB/K ratio has been .709, which isn't quite Nick Weglarz like but nonetheless very good for a player his age.

35 Casey Kelly BOS – SP: Another former first round pick. Drafted as a SS in 2008 by the Red Sox but has been converted to a SP this year. He has made great strides as a pitcher. Already reaching the AA level at the age of 19 and in technically his first year of pro ball (as a pitcher). Has great WHIPS and very good ERAs. His K/9 is solid at 7.3 in AA right now. I have a feeling that will improve once he improves more on his secondary pitches. Raw talent wise you have to figure he has a good arm if he converts over to being a pitcher this easily. Similar situation to James McDonald (who is the exact opposite situation as Rick Ankiel) former OF with a great arm couldn't cut it with the bat so he converted over to pitching. This guy is super athletic he turned down a football scholarship (Quaterback) from Tennessee to sign with the Red Sox. His fastball currently sits at 90 - 92 but scouts project him to eventually sit in the mid to high 90's with natural growth and fine tuning his mechanics. A very raw talent but insane upside. I rank him above Lars Anderson, Nick Weglarz, and Josh Vitters.

36 Jenrry Meija NYM – SP: A very good prospect signed out of the Dominican Republic with The Mets. I wouldn't rank him as higher than Matt Moore, Neftali Feliz, or Jason Knapp. He's very young at 19 in AA. But his numbers have declined considerably with his promotion to AA. His WHIP dropped from 1.13 in Advanced A ball to 1.48 in AA. At 6'0" 160 lbs he has a lot of growing to do. So I'd expect him to add more velocity before he hits the bigs.

37 Matt Moore TB – SP: This is a pitcher I regard fairly high. His K/9 is insane. At 20 in A ball his K/9 is 12.4, he carries a career K/9 of 12.6 over 166.33 minor league IPs. Granted his first two years were in rookie ball at 18 and 19. He is extremely hard to hit but his walk rate needs improvement badly. Right now at A ball he is walking 5.1 batters per nine. But he's only giving up 6.2 hits per nine.

38 Ben Revere MIN – OF: Super Speedy OF. He is the prototypical CF The Minnesota Twins go after and try produce. He's a great average hitter with great contact rates and a great BB/K ratio. Right now in A ball he has 28 BBs and only 27 K's. He has a strike out every 12.704 ABs, which is insane! Last year he stole 44 bases in 340 ABs this year he has 33 SBs in 343 ABs. The guy looks to be a .300+ hitter with 40+ SBs if not better... Possibly much better.

39 Austin Jackson NYY – OF: A kind of forgotten about prospect. He has been quitely having a very solid year in AAA hitting .313 over 352 ABs. He's yet to turn his doubles power into HR power. But shows good speed with 5 triples and 17 for 19 in the stolen base department.

40 Lonnie Chisenhall CLE – 3B/SS: This guy doesn't crack my top 50. A good prospect nonetheless. 20 years old and more than holding his own in Advanced A ball. He has a lot of room to develop being as young as he is with how far advanced in the farm system he is. Moving over to 3B from SS hurts his fantasy appeal. His numbers since May have dropped off very hard. Has good extra base ability with a 41.41% XBH rate. Shows consistant power he has hit at least 4 HRs in every month so far except July (he has 3 in July right now).

Meant to post this the other day but didn't for some reason....
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Re: Midseason Top 50 Prospects

Postby JohnTucker0814 » Wed Aug 05, 2009 11:31 am

So when do you put Dan Hudson (chw) SP in the top 50 or maybe the top 20?

12-5 2.19 ERA 25 BB 142 K 123 IP

He's been dominant in AA... What a steal in the 4th round by the Sox! I'm loving that we could possibly have a top pitching prospect in our system!
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Re: Midseason Top 50 Prospects

Postby Amatter32 » Wed Aug 05, 2009 12:22 pm

JohnTucker0814 wrote:So when do you put Dan Hudson (chw) SP in the top 50 or maybe the top 20?

12-5 2.19 ERA 25 BB 142 K 123 IP

He's been dominant in AA... What a steal in the 4th round by the Sox! I'm loving that we could possibly have a top pitching prospect in our system!


He is definitely in the top 50. Project Prospect put him in at 28 this week, I think that is a good spot.
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Re: Midseason Top 45 Prospects

Postby oddmanout7 » Fri Aug 07, 2009 6:33 pm

Updated. Only included 45 this time.
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Re: Midseason Top 45 Prospects

Postby TitusIII » Mon Aug 10, 2009 12:35 pm

Nice list...you think Todd Frazier(Reds SS/2B/3B) will crack the Top 50 this year? Guy continues to rake, and at 6'3 220lbs, the bat-speed may carry over to MLB.
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