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Offensive predictions

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Offensive predictions

Postby skjelstrom » Wed Jul 08, 2009 6:17 pm

I just recently found a way to find out if a pitcher is getting unlucky and has a high chance of lowering his #'s. Is there any way to do that with hitters? Something that will help determine if they will bounce back the rest of the year or if they are under performing for their potential. Any kind of Stat or something?
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Re: Offensive predictions

Postby BigL531 » Wed Jul 08, 2009 6:40 pm

Babip is a decent stat for that. A low babip means they've been getting unlucky, and are more likely to regress more toward the mean. Low babip=getting unlucky. Babip is not 100% luck though, and a hitter's LD/FB/GB rates as well as how are they are hit also factor into babip.
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Re: Offensive predictions

Postby skjelstrom » Thu Jul 09, 2009 2:25 pm

I kinda knew about BABIP but didn't quite understand, but you explained it easier for me. Is there anything else that could be used?
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Re: Offensive predictions

Postby Omaha Red Sox » Thu Jul 09, 2009 5:22 pm

Walk rates as well. You use these a lot when looking at minor leaguers. If they have a decent BB/K rate, chances are they have a good eye and their production will continue as they move up.
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