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Wins: Most overvalued stat in baseball?

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Re: Wins: Most overvalued stat in baseball?

Postby Art Vandelay » Thu Jul 09, 2009 10:34 am

It's not just wins by pitchers that are overrated, but team wins as well. Why are we still determining standings and deciding who makes the playoffs based on an antiquated stat like "wins" when we have much better metrics like run differential and pythagorean expectation?
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Re: Wins: Most overvalued stat in baseball?

Postby Dan Lambskin » Thu Jul 09, 2009 10:35 am

Art Vandelay wrote:It's not just wins by pitchers that are overrated, but team wins as well. Why are we still determining standings and deciding who makes the playoffs based on an antiquated stat like "wins" when we have much better metrics like run differential and pythagorean expectation?


made me laugh (and wasn't a canned joke)
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Re: Wins: Most overvalued stat in baseball?

Postby Yoda » Thu Jul 09, 2009 11:03 am

no hitters are pretty overrated as well
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Re: Wins: Most overvalued stat in baseball?

Postby Carnac » Thu Jul 09, 2009 12:46 pm

In fantasy wins are overrated. I never base my SP picks on wins, but if I consider two pitchers pretty equal, will use wins (quality of team played for) as a tiebreaker.

In real baseball wins are all that matter. Any GM or manager will tell you the same. Their jobs depend on wins. 300 wins = automatic HOF. Maybe 250 in the future.

Just win baby.
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Re: Wins: Most overvalued stat in baseball?

Postby Ender » Thu Jul 09, 2009 1:05 pm

There are a lot of stats that used to hold a lot of meaning in the original days of baseball that just aren't all that significant anymore.

Wins fall into that category. Back when guys pitched complete games it made sense to give a win or loss to the pitcher, now it really is just a team stat. ERA is the same way to a large extent as is AVG since in the earlier days of baseball they didn't hit a ton of HRs or walk a ton so AVG was a much more important metric.
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Re: Wins: Most overvalued stat in baseball?

Postby Yoda » Thu Jul 09, 2009 1:10 pm

Ender wrote:There are a lot of stats that used to hold a lot of meaning in the original days of baseball that just aren't all that significant anymore.

Wins fall into that category. Back when guys pitched complete games it made sense to give a win or loss to the pitcher, now it really is just a team stat. ERA is the same way to a large extent as is AVG since in the earlier days of baseball they didn't hit a ton of HRs or walk a ton so AVG was a much more important metric.


Agreed. When a pitcher throws a complete game then it makes a lot more sense (although still flawed) to attribute the W to him. When a guy goes 5 IP, he really hasn't earned it.
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Re: Wins: Most overvalued stat in baseball?

Postby lastingsgriller » Thu Jul 09, 2009 1:24 pm

mblax10 wrote:
swyck wrote:Gawd another Wins whine. %-6

Last I looked the point of the game was to, um, win the game. The thing that bugs me is that you can make a case that all fantasy cats (other then MAYBE Ks and HRs) are flawed, so if you want to play in a 2x2 league with HR, OPS, K's and FIP be my guest.


OPS is a pretty flawed stat. Even if the baseball media wants to brace it as a fancy new Sabermetric number, it's really just a combination of 2 stats that don't combine well.

My league has 1 category, number of times Joe Morgan correctly pronounces your player's name.


if the twins ever get to play on national TV again, you have got to hear Joe Morgan say "Michael Cuddyer swung at a cutter" quite possibly the funniest this ever said..
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Re: Wins: Most overvalued stat in baseball?

Postby swyck » Thu Jul 09, 2009 7:02 pm

LloydChristmas wrote:
swyck wrote:Gawd another Wins whine. %-6

Last I looked the point of the game was to, um, win the game. The thing that bugs me is that you can make a case that all fantasy cats (other then MAYBE Ks and HRs) are flawed, so if you want to play in a 2x2 league with HR, OPS, K's and FIP be my guest.


No stat is without it's flaws. My main point is that wins can be very misleading. You see two pitchers with the same amount of wins and you assume they must have pitched at similar levels. That is many times very untrue. There's really no way to argue against that very basic point.

If you maintain a "the point of the game is to win" perspective, I'd welcome you to my league where I'll gladly trade you Randy Johnson (8 Wins) for Josh Johnson (7 Wins) because as Herman Edwards taught us "you play to win the game!"

Kidding aside, I understand the point you're trying to make. I never said wins shouldn't be a category in fantasy sports. Like I said, every stat has its flaws and that adds a lot of fun to fantasy sports in many ways. You have to consider a lot of factors when valuing players. If you'll read my blurb again, I was only saying that wins are overvalued when it comes to assessing a pitcher's performance. That's it and that's all.

I guess I extrapolated a bit into your post since there have been other posts that I felt were very whiny about wins. I do agree with your main point that wins are misleading, and I rarely base any fantasy decision on wins, though I try to favor pitchers on better teams when I have the choice of two otherwise close candidates.

I just feel that at some point we have to remember that the game is out there on the field and if you have the wins then you've done your job. You are getting credit for what is really a team effort but I see nothing wrong with that. My boss get credit for all my great work doesn't he? :-D
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