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Wins: Most overvalued stat in baseball?

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Re: Wins: Most overvalued stat in baseball?

Postby lastingsgriller » Wed Jul 08, 2009 1:05 pm

sorry to go on a tangent here.. maybe there is another thread on this somewhere, I didn't look. but how is it that Hamilton gets in based on name recognition.. he had 1 good half of a season and put on a show at the homerun derby.. I get it more when it's someone like griffey Jr. who is in the game year after year and fans are jsut used to voting for him.. but Hamilton? come on. I'll never understand voters.. good thing I'm not a politition.
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Re: Wins: Most overvalued stat in baseball?

Postby keeks137 » Wed Jul 08, 2009 3:00 pm

It's not completely without value, but overrated, definitely.

A bad pitcher is not going to be able to rack up a lot of wins. However, you're right about a good pitcher can very easily get screwed out of his fair share of wins by playing for a bad team, or that team having an off night.

I feel like they tossed Wakefield a bone and gave him his first all star bid. The wins thing was just justification after the fact.

The only other thing that makes me question its "overvalue" is that I can't think of too many GM's that overvalue it. The pitchers that make the big money and/or draw a lot of interest from other teams generally have some other worthwhile stats working for them (or at least they did when they were signed to the big money). I am by no means a baseball encyclopedia, so feel free to toss out examples contrary to that point.

I do think the overvalue comes into play in terms of sports commentary/fan appreciation. So, I would say it depends on how you frame it.
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Re: Wins: Most overvalued stat in baseball?

Postby ivanhack » Wed Jul 08, 2009 3:04 pm

Saves is the most overvalued stat in baseball. A closer has to be lucky enough to get a lot of save opportunities and often simply has to protect a 3 run lead.
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Re: Wins: Most overvalued stat in baseball?

Postby Tavish » Wed Jul 08, 2009 3:13 pm

ivanhack wrote:Saves is the most overvalued stat in baseball. A closer has to be lucky enough to get a lot of save opportunities and often simply has to protect a 3 run lead.

This 100X over.
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Re: Wins: Most overvalued stat in baseball?

Postby Nerfherders » Wed Jul 08, 2009 4:10 pm

I hate wins.. Hate isn't a strong enough word for how I feel about wins... Fantasy or otherwise.

We use wins in my keeper league, and here are my bottom 4 starting pitchers:

Carlos Zambrano - 11 QS, 3.47 ERA, 4-4
Aaron Harang - 10 QS, 3.86 ERA, 5-8
Randy Wolf - 10 QS, 3.49 ERA, 3-3
Edwin Jackson - 9 QS, 2.58 ERA, 4-2 (I picked him up after his 7th start)

That's 4 pitchers with 40 quality starts out of 61, with a combined 3.44 ERA, and are 16-17 to show for it.

I am leading the league in ERA and WHIP, 3rd in K's, 2nd in Saves, and 3rd to last in Wins. I HATE wins!

I have almost as bad, if not worse luck in my other league, with Haren, Vazquez, Jimenez, and Jered Weaver leading the pitching staff. However, that team has 15 Wins from the bullpen and so I am 3rd or 4th in wins.

It even sneaks up in my points league, where on at least one occasion I lost a week by less than 10 points when one of my pitchers pitched lights out but didnt get the 10 points for the win.
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Re: Wins: Most overvalued stat in baseball?

Postby LloydChristmas » Wed Jul 08, 2009 4:11 pm

I would clarify overvalued as being overvalued in terms of public/media perception. No GM will be jumping to trade for Tim Wakefield even if he were younger. Also, saves are definitely up there with wins in terms of terrible stats.

A basic feature of good stats, in my opinion, is that they isolate a player's performance separate from everything that externally affects stats. Some of these externalities can be team, opponent, situations, etc.

Since you brought up saves:

Pitcher A:
67.2 IP
1.33 ERA
.901 WHIP

Pitcher B:
68.1 IP
2.24 ERA
1.28 WHIP

Pitcher A is Joe Nathan, Pitcher B is Francisco Rodriguez. (Stats from 2008)

Rodriguez had 62 saves while Nathan had only 39. But of course the media hyped "K-Rod" as having the best season ever by a closer.

Saves, though, for fantasy purposes are very similar to wins. The difference in my mind however is that saves should be valued slightly higher because the other stats don't differ as much and they don't affect you as much. For instance, in the example above, the extra 23 saves Rodriguez snatched you only came at the price of 68 innings worth of marginally higher ERA and WHIP. In a starting pitcher situation, an extra 5 wins from a lesser pitcher may come with 200 innings of simliar ERA and WHIP differences.

Also, saves are simply more scarce. In the MLB last year, there were 1184 saves accumulated v. 2428 wins. Simply put, it's easier to find wins than saves and therefore, you should pay more for saves than wins (other stats not considered).
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Re: Wins: Most overvalued stat in baseball?

Postby keeks137 » Wed Jul 08, 2009 5:08 pm

ivanhack wrote:Saves is the most overvalued stat in baseball. A closer has to be lucky enough to get a lot of save opportunities and often simply has to protect a 3 run lead.


Yeah, sheer number of saves are a bit of a crapshoot.

But, I'm glad the stat exists, as save % is definitely something everyone (in terms of GMs, the media, and the general public) should be interested in. You have to know if a guy cracks under the pressure.
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Re: Wins: Most overvalued stat in baseball?

Postby swyck » Wed Jul 08, 2009 9:21 pm

Gawd another Wins whine. %-6

Last I looked the point of the game was to, um, win the game. The thing that bugs me is that you can make a case that all fantasy cats (other then MAYBE Ks and HRs) are flawed, so if you want to play in a 2x2 league with HR, OPS, K's and FIP be my guest.
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Re: Wins: Most overvalued stat in baseball?

Postby mblax10 » Wed Jul 08, 2009 9:30 pm

swyck wrote:Gawd another Wins whine. %-6

Last I looked the point of the game was to, um, win the game. The thing that bugs me is that you can make a case that all fantasy cats (other then MAYBE Ks and HRs) are flawed, so if you want to play in a 2x2 league with HR, OPS, K's and FIP be my guest.


OPS is a pretty flawed stat. Even if the baseball media wants to brace it as a fancy new Sabermetric number, it's really just a combination of 2 stats that don't combine well.

My league has 1 category, number of times Joe Morgan correctly pronounces your player's name.
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Re: Wins: Most overvalued stat in baseball?

Postby bigh0rt » Wed Jul 08, 2009 10:28 pm

Tavish wrote:
ivanhack wrote:Saves is the most overvalued stat in baseball. A closer has to be lucky enough to get a lot of save opportunities and often simply has to protect a 3 run lead.

This 100X over.

More than Calm Eyes Index? Really?
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