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Top 25 for '10

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Re: Top 25 for '10

Postby Inukchuk » Sat Aug 01, 2009 9:49 am

BuckeyeSal wrote: And my last sentence meant that odds are he hits at least 30+ HRs and has 90+ RBI next year if healthy which wouldn't be a bust even if he hit 250. It wouldn't be great but wouldn't be a Jimmy Rollins bust. On the other hand, there's a chance that he hits 280 like he did in year 1 and year 3 and goes 100/100. That to me seems more likely than him having a bust year, which for me would be less than 20HR and less than 90RBI with a bad BA. Do you really disagree?


OK, now you're just arguing what the definition of 'bust' is more than anything else, which I have no desire to waste my time doing.

But hey, if you don't mind 30-90-250 from your second round pick, then I imagine you'll spend a lot of time in the bottom half of your league. To me, those are not good numbers from your 2nd rounder. Thus, bust.

Even if he goes 100/35/100/280, that's not top 10 production. That's Carlos Lee with a whole lot more risk...

Like I mentioned, I wouldn't fault people for buying into the Reynolds hype, and it may very well pay off. He's just far too risky for my taste.
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Re: Top 25 for '10

Postby J35J » Sat Aug 01, 2009 10:38 am

I think Adam Jones will be one of the more overrated guys going into next year. He's a .275 hitter with 15-20 hr type of power....probably closer to 15 right now....and his speed is overrated. He's a ground ball hitter who is benefiting from an over 20% HR/FB rate this year. That number will likely drop below 15% next year and if he continues to be a groundball hitter his HR total will be around 15 over a full season.

Of course anything can happen but there isn't anything in his numbers that scream he is a .300/25/100/100/20 type of guy year in and year out and it appears thats what alot of people think he is....though his home park is definately a help to him.

I'll put him down for .275/18/80/80/10 next year and let everyone else pay more if they want him.
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Re: Top 25 for '10

Postby Yoda » Sat Aug 01, 2009 11:08 am

Neato Torpedo wrote:Eh, depending on whether or not he keeps it up. If he does, 3rd round. If he gets the "2/3 of a good season" tag with an August/September swoon, he'll be a 5th rounder. Right now it's been 2/3 of a season so I'm basing my value on that.


You are nuts... JUP is a stud and he belongs up there.
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Re: Top 25 for '10

Postby BuckeyeSal » Sat Aug 01, 2009 1:23 pm

Inukchuk wrote:
BuckeyeSal wrote: And my last sentence meant that odds are he hits at least 30+ HRs and has 90+ RBI next year if healthy which wouldn't be a bust even if he hit 250. It wouldn't be great but wouldn't be a Jimmy Rollins bust. On the other hand, there's a chance that he hits 280 like he did in year 1 and year 3 and goes 100/100. That to me seems more likely than him having a bust year, which for me would be less than 20HR and less than 90RBI with a bad BA. Do you really disagree?


OK, now you're just arguing what the definition of 'bust' is more than anything else, which I have no desire to waste my time doing.

But hey, if you don't mind 30-90-250 from your second round pick, then I imagine you'll spend a lot of time in the bottom half of your league. To me, those are not good numbers from your 2nd rounder. Thus, bust.

Even if he goes 100/35/100/280, that's not top 10 production. That's Carlos Lee with a whole lot more risk...

Like I mentioned, I wouldn't fault people for buying into the Reynolds hype, and it may very well pay off. He's just far too risky for my taste.


Yea, basically saying he doesn't steal a base all year he's Carlos Lee. Dumb.
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Re: Top 25 for '10

Postby SignGuy » Sat Aug 01, 2009 2:39 pm

Should Bj Upton really be top 25?
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Re: Top 25 for '10

Postby AquaMan2342 » Sat Aug 01, 2009 2:42 pm

Inukchuk wrote:
Even if he goes 100/35/100/280, that's not top 10 production. That's Carlos Lee with a whole lot more risk...


He's going to get some steals. He plays third base, which is arguably the thinnest position to draft right now. Not saying I am drafting him in the first or second round next year, but he's probably more valuable than Lee next season because of his position eligibility.
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Re: Top 25 for '10

Postby Inukchuk » Sat Aug 01, 2009 3:58 pm

BuckeyeSal wrote:
Inukchuk wrote:
BuckeyeSal wrote: And my last sentence meant that odds are he hits at least 30+ HRs and has 90+ RBI next year if healthy which wouldn't be a bust even if he hit 250. It wouldn't be great but wouldn't be a Jimmy Rollins bust. On the other hand, there's a chance that he hits 280 like he did in year 1 and year 3 and goes 100/100. That to me seems more likely than him having a bust year, which for me would be less than 20HR and less than 90RBI with a bad BA. Do you really disagree?


OK, now you're just arguing what the definition of 'bust' is more than anything else, which I have no desire to waste my time doing.

But hey, if you don't mind 30-90-250 from your second round pick, then I imagine you'll spend a lot of time in the bottom half of your league. To me, those are not good numbers from your 2nd rounder. Thus, bust.

Even if he goes 100/35/100/280, that's not top 10 production. That's Carlos Lee with a whole lot more risk...

Like I mentioned, I wouldn't fault people for buying into the Reynolds hype, and it may very well pay off. He's just far too risky for my taste.


Yea, basically saying he doesn't steal a base all year he's Carlos Lee. Dumb.


And hits for 25-30 points lower in AVG and drives in 10-20 fewer runs... all from your high end projection of him... :-°

Again, I'm simply saying that to me, his reward doesn't weigh favorably against the risk he entails. No need to get all hissy and resort to the personal stuff.

AquaMan2342 wrote:He's going to get some steals. He plays third base, which is arguably the thinnest position to draft right now. Not saying I am drafting him in the first or second round next year, but he's probably more valuable than Lee next season because of his position eligibility.


That's a fair enough argument. Personally, I'd go with the safer pick, but I won't fault that line of thinking. Different draft philosophies.
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Re: Top 25 for '10

Postby BuckeyeSal » Mon Aug 03, 2009 1:49 pm

Happy Birthday to Mark Reynolds, he turns 26 today. Has anyone finished in the top 8 of yahoo before the age of 27 and not been drafted in the top 25 on avg. the next year? I know he's a weird case, my whole arguement was that he probably will be drafted by the 25th pick.
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Re: Top 25 for '10

Postby thejusman1 » Mon Aug 03, 2009 2:14 pm

SignGuy wrote:Should Bj Upton really be top 25?


Good point. He had a sizzling June, but slumped hard in July. This, after posting abysmal, .220 level playing in April and May. That's three months of bad, 1 month of good, and two more months of the season to go. We can't chalk this up to his shoulder surgery any longer. I took him with the 43rd overall pick this year, and he's definitely someone I'm avoiding next year unless he falls somewhere near the 70-80th overall pick. (Rd. 7-8).
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Re: Top 25 for '10

Postby Kraftwerk » Mon Aug 03, 2009 8:08 pm

Id rather have BJ Upton than Mark Reynolds
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