Neato Torpedo wrote:Eh, depending on whether or not he keeps it up. If he does, 3rd round. If he gets the "2/3 of a good season" tag with an August/September swoon, he'll be a 5th rounder. Right now it's been 2/3 of a season so I'm basing my value on that.
With that logic, you'll have to drop every player's projected draft position two rounds. It's been 2/3 of a season for all of them.
I guarantee you, though, even with a horrid collapse, he'll be a higher pick than the 5th round. He's 22, and on pace for 105/32/105/25/.301. There's no way that he'll be available that late, no matter what happens here on out.
Neato Torpedo wrote:Eh, depending on whether or not he keeps it up. If he does, 3rd round. If he gets the "2/3 of a good season" tag with an August/September swoon, he'll be a 5th rounder. Right now it's been 2/3 of a season so I'm basing my value on that.
With that logic, you'll have to drop every player's projected draft position two rounds. It's been 2/3 of a season for all of them.
I guarantee you, though, even with a horrid collapse, he'll be a higher pick than the 5th round. He's 22, and on pace for 105/32/105/25/.301. There's no way that he'll be available that late, no matter what happens here on out.
No, other players at that level have been great to elite for more than 2/3 of a season. Some for more than 10 years.
Let's see how long he can keep up that .301 AVG with that .365 BABIP and 26.8% K rate. Fine, earlier than 5th round, maybe late 3rd round at this point. He's a BABIP dip away from being a .260 hitter.
Rocinante2: you know Rocinante2: its easy to dismiss the orioles as a bad team ofanrex: go on Rocinante2: i'm done Rocinante2: lmao
Neato Torpedo wrote:No, other players at that level have been great to elite for more than 2/3 of a season. Some for more than 10 years.
I was joking.
Neato Torpedo wrote:Let's see how long he can keep up that .301 AVG with that .365 BABIP and 26.8% K rate. Fine, earlier than 5th round, maybe late 3rd round at this point. He's a BABIP dip away from being a .260 hitter.
I agree that his BA is slightly inflated, but we might be talking about different things here. If you're talking about him finishing with 5th round value, a big slump could *possibly* make that a reality. I'm talking about where he *will" be drafted next year. In a 12 team league, you're saying he'll, at the very earliest, be the 49th player taken. I'd be hard pressed to name 30 players I'd take before him, let alone about 50. I just think there is no way that someone will wait that many rounds to draft someone that young with that upside and raw talent, when he's shown he can produce at the MLB level.
BTW, he'd have to hit .192 the rest of the year to finish at .260.
No, I mean .260 next year. If he has a .300-ish BABIP there's a good chance he'll hover around the .250-.260 mark. Also, I took back my 5th round remark and adjusted it to late 3rd round. I'm also going to edit all my posts to make it seem like that 5th round remark never happened.
Rocinante2: you know Rocinante2: its easy to dismiss the orioles as a bad team ofanrex: go on Rocinante2: i'm done Rocinante2: lmao
Neato Torpedo wrote:No, I mean .260 next year. If he has a .300-ish BABIP there's a good chance he'll hover around the .250-.260 mark. Also, I took back my 5th round remark and adjusted it to late 3rd round. I'm also going to edit all my posts to make it seem like that 5th round remark never happened.
Do you intentionally make your posts extremely ambiguous so you can clarify what you "meant" later on?
And I'm ok with you changing your posts. I've done that to every one I've ever made at the Cafe.
Neato Torpedo wrote:No, I mean .260 next year. If he has a .300-ish BABIP there's a good chance he'll hover around the .250-.260 mark. Also, I took back my 5th round remark and adjusted it to late 3rd round. I'm also going to edit all my posts to make it seem like that 5th round remark never happened.
Do you intentionally make your posts extremely ambiguous so you can clarify what you "meant" later on?
Nostradamus did the same thing and it worked out very well for him.
Rocinante2: you know Rocinante2: its easy to dismiss the orioles as a bad team ofanrex: go on Rocinante2: i'm done Rocinante2: lmao
I only read the first few pages but I love how much rankings can change based on 200ABs of a new year. The OP could do this again in August and I'd bet 50% of the list changes quite a bit again. I understand these types of things are fun to do but its a pretty big waste of time to do until the season is over, IMHO. Anyway, not to be a jerk, but seriously the only thing these mid season lists show me is how underrated and overrated players are at any given point.
With all that said, I already can't wait until the offseason so I can get started on all the offseason draft prep!!
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