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Top 25 for '10

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Re: Top 25 for '10

Postby Inukchuk » Fri Jul 31, 2009 1:15 pm

lastingsgriller wrote:bout time to bring adam jones in the mix..

just as good as Kemp or J-up or B-up.


Yes, you mentioned that already on the first page. I disagreed then, and I disagree now. I would take all 3 of those guys earlier than Jones. Kemp in particular, especially if he moves toward the top of the order.

Jones is nice, but right now he's putting up 4th round numbers.
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Re: Top 25 for '10

Postby thejusman1 » Fri Jul 31, 2009 1:20 pm

da bears wrote:So a guy who over the past two seasons has hit a HR every 16-17 plate appearances, is 25 years old, improved his walk rate, has shown a bit of speed, and plays 3rd base isn't top 25 material but Curtis Granderson is? Seems like people don't really want to believe this guy is actually improving.


Yep, exactly.
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Re: Top 25 for '10

Postby BuckeyeSal » Fri Jul 31, 2009 2:24 pm

KCollins1304 wrote:
da bears wrote:So a guy who over the past two seasons has hit a HR every 16-17 plate appearances, is 25 years old, improved his walk rate, has shown a bit of speed, and plays 3rd base isn't top 25 material but Curtis Granderson is? Seems like people don't really want to believe this guy is actually improving.


Granderson has been putting up his current line for 3 seasons now, that is why people would value him more. Reynolds line other than his power came out of the blue.


You kind of sound like you're talking out of your arse without actually looking at his numbers. In 07 he had 17Hrs and hit 279 in 366ABs. Last year he had 28HRs 97RBI, 87Rs and stole 11bases. Granted, his BA was poor but that's more than just HRs. Now in year 3 he's going to go .275 35HRs 105RBI, 100Rs and steal 22 bases. It really wasn't ever out of the blue. Eliminate the name and the mental bias you have and that's a stock that's currently going up. Also, the odds are good that Drew and JUp continue to improve and help his RBI and R totals. If you pick him next year 20th-25th you have a better chance of him ending up a top 10 player than you do him being a bust.
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Re: Top 25 for '10

Postby AquaMan2342 » Fri Jul 31, 2009 2:30 pm

BuckeyeSal wrote:
KCollins1304 wrote:
da bears wrote:So a guy who over the past two seasons has hit a HR every 16-17 plate appearances, is 25 years old, improved his walk rate, has shown a bit of speed, and plays 3rd base isn't top 25 material but Curtis Granderson is? Seems like people don't really want to believe this guy is actually improving.


Granderson has been putting up his current line for 3 seasons now, that is why people would value him more. Reynolds line other than his power came out of the blue.


You kind of sound like you're talking out of your arse without actually looking at his numbers. In 07 he had 17Hrs and hit 279 in 366ABs. Last year he had 28HRs 97RBI, 87Rs and stole 11bases. Granted, his BA was poor but that's more than just HRs. Now in year 3 he's going to go .275 35HRs 105RBI, 100Rs and steal 22 bases. It really wasn't ever out of the blue. Eliminate the name and the mental bias you have and that's a stock that's currently going up. Also, the odds are good that Drew and JUp continue to improve and help his RBI and R totals. If you pick him next year 20th-25th you have a better chance of him ending up a top 10 player than you do him being a bust.


I follow your point until the last sentence. Reynolds is really no different than Adam Dunn was when he was stealing bases. Even then, Dunn was a fourth or fifth round pick, which I think is fair value for Reynolds next year. However, the massive amount of K's leads to a lot of question marks about whether or not he can sustain a .250+ BA. I also don't know if he's the type of guy who is going to steal 20 bases every year either.

This is coming from a staunch advocate of Reynolds.
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Re: Top 25 for '10

Postby Inukchuk » Fri Jul 31, 2009 2:53 pm

BuckeyeSal wrote:You kind of sound like you're talking out of your arse without actually looking at his numbers. In 07 he had 17Hrs and hit 279 in 366ABs. Last year he had 28HRs 97RBI, 87Rs and stole 11bases. Granted, his BA was poor but that's more than just HRs. Now in year 3 he's going to go .275 35HRs 105RBI, 100Rs and steal 22 bases. It really wasn't ever out of the blue. Eliminate the name and the mental bias you have and that's a stock that's currently going up. Also, the odds are good that Drew and JUp continue to improve and help his RBI and R totals. If you pick him next year 20th-25th you have a better chance of him ending up a top 10 player than you do him being a bust.


Really? Doubling your SB output and increasing your AVG 35 points can't be considered out of the blue? As Aqua noted, his K's will always make a 250 AVG less than a lock from year to year as well.

I understand you're a proponent for Reynolds as a top 25 guy next year, and that may very well happen, but that last statement is pretty ridiculous. You need to take into account not only a guy's ceiling, but his floor as well which is something you're clearly not doing. Like it or not, there is a considerable risk involved with drafting Reynolds that high.

Again, I won't fault someone for gambling and taking him in round 2. I just don't plan on it myself. But to say there's a better chance of him finishing top 10 than busting seems like you've bought into the hype a little too much...
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Re: Top 25 for '10

Postby BuckeyeSal » Fri Jul 31, 2009 3:01 pm

He hit 279 his first year in 300 plus ABs so this years batting avg isn't out of the blue. After this year it looks like his BA last year might be the outlier. And my last sentence meant that odds are he hits at least 30+ HRs and has 90+ RBI next year if healthy which wouldn't be a bust even if he hit 250. It wouldn't be great but wouldn't be a Jimmy Rollins bust. On the other hand, there's a chance that he hits 280 like he did in year 1 and year 3 and goes 100/100. That to me seems more likely than him having a bust year, which for me would be less than 20HR and less than 90RBI with a bad BA. Do you really disagree?
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Re: Top 25 for '10

Postby AquaMan2342 » Fri Jul 31, 2009 3:04 pm

Anybody that strikes out 200+ times a season is a risk in batting average. There's no way around it.
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Re: Top 25 for '10

Postby Neato Torpedo » Fri Jul 31, 2009 3:05 pm

lastingsgriller wrote:bout time to bring adam jones in the mix..

just as good as Kemp or J-up or B-up.

What? Kemp is arguably a top 15 player, and top 20 in most lists. I'll buy that he should be ranked near the Uptons, though, since BJ's a 3rd rounder and JUp's a 5th rounder or so.
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Re: Top 25 for '10

Postby Fade2White12 » Fri Jul 31, 2009 3:07 pm

Neato Torpedo wrote:What? Kemp is arguably a top 15 player, and top 20 in most lists. I'll buy that he should be ranked near the Uptons, though, since BJ's a 3rd rounder and JUp's a 5th rounder or so.


JUpton only a 5th rounder next year? Don't think so.
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Re: Top 25 for '10

Postby Neato Torpedo » Fri Jul 31, 2009 3:11 pm

Eh, depending on whether or not he keeps it up. If he does, 3rd round. If he gets the "2/3 of a good season" tag with an August/September swoon, he'll be a 5th rounder. Right now it's been 2/3 of a season so I'm basing my value on that.
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