AJ definitely has 25 HR pop but his AVG is way too high right now and he's had his share of leg problems so speed is a big ? I don't think he belongs in the top 25 unless he finishes really strong.
"Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that." ~George Carlin
J35J wrote:I think Adam Jones will be one of the more overrated guys going into next year. He's a .275 hitter with 15-20 hr type of power....probably closer to 15 right now....and his speed is overrated. He's a ground ball hitter who is benefiting from an over 20% HR/FB rate this year. That number will likely drop below 15% next year and if he continues to be a groundball hitter his HR total will be around 15 over a full season.
Of course anything can happen but there isn't anything in his numbers that scream he is a .300/25/100/100/20 type of guy year in and year out and it appears thats what alot of people think he is....though his home park is definately a help to him.
I'll put him down for .275/18/80/80/10 next year and let everyone else pay more if they want him.
so just to clarify.. you are putting a player that had 18 hr's and 8 SB as of aug. 1st this year on 18 homeruns and 10 sb for all of next year? i guess this would make some sense if he was a veteran player that was just having an unusually good year.. but this is a developing prospect that is finally breaking out. how can you believe that he has already hit his ceiling? that is senseless.
i think anyone that has spent any time watching the orioles is well aware that adam jones has some serious power in that swing.
I never said he hit his ceiling....more of I want to see it again before I pay top dollar. He's got a HR/FB rate up there with the best of the best HR hitters....he won't sustaint that....especially since he's more of a groundball hitter. Look at Matt Kemp....he was another that everyone was expecting 25-30 hr out of but is a groundball hitter right now....can he continue to improve and hit 25-30hr, sure, but when you're a groundball hitter and don't have that natural home run swing it doesn't usually happen overnight. If Adam Jones continues to be a ground ball hitter and his HR/FB rate drops down below 15% then he could easily be in the 18-20hr range next year. I'm not looking at 2-4 years down the line....just next year. He's not exactly a polished hitter with a good eye and plate discipline.
With all that said....I'm not saying this because I hate the guy....just pointing out that he may be on my list as one of the more overrated guys out there for next year.
J35J wrote:I think Adam Jones will be one of the more overrated guys going into next year. He's a .275 hitter with 15-20 hr type of power....probably closer to 15 right now....and his speed is overrated. He's a ground ball hitter who is benefiting from an over 20% HR/FB rate this year. That number will likely drop below 15% next year and if he continues to be a groundball hitter his HR total will be around 15 over a full season.
Of course anything can happen but there isn't anything in his numbers that scream he is a .300/25/100/100/20 type of guy year in and year out and it appears thats what alot of people think he is....though his home park is definately a help to him.
I'll put him down for .275/18/80/80/10 next year and let everyone else pay more if they want him.
so just to clarify.. you are putting a player that had 18 hr's and 8 SB as of aug. 1st this year on 18 homeruns and 10 sb for all of next year? i guess this would make some sense if he was a veteran player that was just having an unusually good year.. but this is a developing prospect that is finally breaking out. how can you believe that he has already hit his ceiling? that is senseless.
i think anyone that has spent any time watching the orioles is well aware that adam jones has some serious power in that swing.
I never said he hit his ceiling....more of I want to see it again before I pay top dollar. He's got a HR/FB rate up there with the best of the best HR hitters....he won't sustaint that....especially since he's more of a groundball hitter. Look at Matt Kemp....he was another that everyone was expecting 25-30 hr out of but is a groundball hitter right now....can he continue to improve and hit 25-30hr, sure, but when you're a groundball hitter and don't have that natural home run swing it doesn't usually happen overnight. If Adam Jones continues to be a ground ball hitter and his HR/FB rate drops down below 15% then he could easily be in the 18-20hr range next year. I'm not looking at 2-4 years down the line....just next year. He's not exactly a polished hitter with a good eye and plate discipline.
With all that said....I'm not saying this because I hate the guy....just pointing out that he may be on my list as one of the more overrated guys out there for next year.
Actually Kemp hasn't been hitting as many grounders as in his first few years in the big club. What I see from Kemp is he's either hitting liners for singles or lofting more flyballs than he's ever had; I'm not sure if he's really developing into a groundball hitter when he keeps extending toward his power swing.
That said, you are spot on in Jones' value now and next season being inflated.
I got Kemp in 4th rd this year , hope to get him in 3rd next year but more than likely hype will make him 2nd rounder (think bj upton this year).I havent analyzedthis tears in season periperals yet but considering hes on 25 hr/33sb pace this year , I would think normal progression of young player plus more importantly a decent place in batting order next year would carry him to 2nd production.
Neato Torpedo wrote:No, I mean .260 next year. If he has a .300-ish BABIP there's a good chance he'll hover around the .250-.260 mark. Also, I took back my 5th round remark and adjusted it to late 3rd round. I'm also going to edit all my posts to make it seem like that 5th round remark never happened.
LOL, that's awesome!!
It looks like Tulo is pretty close to JUp's stats minus the BA, which has been climbing. Is he (Tulo) top 50 at this point?
I think its a little crazy that almost no one is putting Lincecum in the top 10 overall. He is probably going to win the Cy again, he is still not in his prime yet, and is on pace for close to 300ks. The last guys in fantasy baseball who had/approached 300ks were RJ, Schilling, and Pedro earlier in this decacde and they were drafted in the 1st round of fresh leagues.
Now for me I am a huge advocate of hitting so I can guarentee you I will never have Timmy unless he fell to me somehow. But going into 2010 Lincecum is going to be considered a top 10 overall player. Probably closer to 4-6.
here is my list: 1. Pujols 2. Hanley 3. Arod 4. Utley 5. Prince 6. Lincecum 7. Braun 8. Wright 9. Teixeria 10. Crawford 11. M. Cabrera 12. Kinsler 13. Sizemore 14. Mauer 15. Howard 16. Reyes 17. Longoria 18. Holliday 19. Rollins 20. Morneau 21. J Upton 22. Beltran 23. Johan 24. Kemp 25. Zimmerman
Last edited by GSes on Wed Aug 12, 2009 5:33 am, edited 1 time in total.
GSes wrote:Now for me I am a huge advocate of hitting so I can guarentee you I will never have Timmy unless he fell to me somehow. But going into 2010 Lincecum is going to be considered a top 10 overall player. Probably closer to 4-6.
here is my list: 1. Pujols 2. Hanley 3. Arod 4. Utley 5. Prince 6. Lincecum 7. Braun 8. Wright 9. Teixeria 10. Crawford 11. M. Cabrera 12. Kinsler 13. Sizemore 14. Mauer 15. Howard 16. Reyes 17. Holliday 18. Rollins 19. Morneau 20. J Upton 21. Beltran 22. Johan 23. Kemp 24. BJ Upton 25. Zimmerman
I couldnt agree more on lincecum and I like this list but I think I'd take Longoria around 16-20. Definitely ahead of Beltran, BJ and Zimmerman. I'm a bit surprised to not see Reynolds as well but I think I prefer Longoria. I have a hard time figuring out how to value Holliday and would hate to end up with JRoll in the 2nd round.
GSes wrote:Now for me I am a huge advocate of hitting so I can guarentee you I will never have Timmy unless he fell to me somehow. But going into 2010 Lincecum is going to be considered a top 10 overall player. Probably closer to 4-6.
here is my list: 1. Pujols 2. Hanley 3. Arod 4. Utley 5. Prince 6. Lincecum 7. Braun 8. Wright 9. Teixeria 10. Crawford 11. M. Cabrera 12. Kinsler 13. Sizemore 14. Mauer 15. Howard 16. Reyes 17. Holliday 18. Rollins 19. Morneau 20. J Upton 21. Beltran 22. Johan 23. Kemp 24. BJ Upton 25. Zimmerman
I couldnt agree more on lincecum and I like this list but I think I'd take Longoria around 16-20. Definitely ahead of Beltran, BJ and Zimmerman. I'm a bit surprised to not see Reynolds as well but I think I prefer Longoria. I have a hard time figuring out how to value Holliday and would hate to end up with JRoll in the 2nd round.
absolutely agree on longoria..i meant to have him in top 17 he just some how got lost in my transiton from paper to post..i edited it cuz i did have in there...i do think reynolds should get major consideration i have him in the top 30.
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by Yoda » Tue Aug 04, 2009 11:11 am 
