Bryce Harper

[Bobbleheadrusty]

I would say that in each year most of those players were just as hyped (remembering that the internet as a tool for this sort of forum is still very new). Bush for example.

My recollection on Bush was that the only team that really loved him was his hometown team, SD. I think the general scouting consensus was that he was an overdraft. In fact, even in 2004, I think he was widely regarded as the worst #1 ever taken.

So out of 20 players I count 8 who are/were worth their pick. If you give Hamilton a pass and assume the last three all develop (a stretch) you are looking at a 60% success rate.

I seem to remember a Jim Callis Ask BA column about the success of first round and first overall picks. I wish I could find it (I think I read it 6 mo to a year ago), but the conclusions were pretty obvious. Players selected in the first round were more likely to make it to the majors and contribute and players selected first overall were even more likely to be successful. You poo-poo a 60% success rate (and frankly I disagree with you assessment and method on some of those guys), but compare that to the success rate of the lower spots in the draft. I'm sure you'll find that the first spot succeeds at a much higher rate.

I'm not saying that first overall picks aren't successful when compared to lower picks (they are). I'm saying the first HS hitter taken has a pretty low success rate for a 30M contract, especially when you consider that this kid will have only 2 years of high school education and will probably take 3-4 years to even consider being ML ready.

[kab21]

The problem is that not all of those highest HS player drafted names you mentioned were head and shoulders above the rest of the entire draft class.

FWIW - the same poor analysis has been done with Strasburg and all other pitchers drafted #1 overall.

Maybe Harper (or even Strasburg) will be a bust. Anything is possible but he's more of the once every 5-10 yrs type of HS draftee.

[Omaha Red Sox]

A guy at work told me he heard on the radio that he is now going to finish high school but I can't find anything on it. Anybody hear this?

[Curtis Pride]

After hitting for the cycle the day before, he went 6-6 with 4 home runs last night.

While it's only junior college - it's the JuCo World Series, so it's the best competition out there - and it's wooden bats. And HE'S SEVENTEEN.

[Omaha Red Sox]

Freak.

[kab21]

After hitting for the cycle the day before, he went 6-6 with 4 home runs last night.

While it's only junior college - it's the JuCo World Series, so it's the best competition out there - and it's wooden bats. And HE'S SEVENTEEN.

I will only get on board the harper bandwagon when he hits 3 HR's in a game. That is the true measuring stick of greatness and I don't think it's ever been done.

[Padsin05]

After hitting for the cycle the day before, he went 6-6 with 4 home runs last night.

While it's only junior college - it's the JuCo World Series, so it's the best competition out there - and it's wooden bats. And HE'S SEVENTEEN.

JUCO WS is not wooden bats, there are conflicting reports on whether Harper is using wood or not though.

Championship is Sat 29th and its possible gonna be picked up by one of the ESPN's so we might get to see it first hand

[Curtis Pride]

I've seen numerous videos of him this year - he's using wooden bats.

[mblax10]

Does it really matter if he's using wood this season? Obviously wood makes it even more impressive, but 442/524/986 and 29 HR in 215 AB is ridiculous even if he was using aluminum.

Even with the makeup concerns, he's magnitudes ahead of anybody else in the draft.

[18 and 1]

When he's raking at A+ or AA then I'll be impressed. He's playing against horrible competition.