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Re: Bryce Harper

Postby mac-unit » Mon Jun 15, 2009 5:28 pm

kab21 wrote:
mac-unit wrote:If they do sign Stras(I think they will) I don't see how it's financially possible for them to give another drafted guy that type of money.

Why not? They aren't spending a fortune on the MLB team (27th ranked payroll without any long-term terrible contracts). And they have a good finacial backing. A team like that can easily afford two 20-25M guaranteed contracts (if that's what it came down to) for what are easily the two most talented players in both drafts.


I just don't see how they can keep spending when there not getting anyone to go to the games. They're 27th of 30 for home games and it will only get worse as they make a legitimate run for the .250 winning percentage.


Carey Saders wrote:Wrong forum for this. He is neither a Minor Leaguer or a College Player.

;-7


He just enrolled at the College of Southern Nevada. People are just talking about their Coyotes baseball. :-b
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Re: Bryce Harper

Postby clevername » Mon Jun 15, 2009 5:56 pm

Omaha Red Sox wrote:
clevername wrote:he's this year's once in a lifetime player!

I wonder who's next year's?!?


You didn't read the article did you?


I skimmed it. It's not the first time I've heard about the guy. It won't be the last, I'm sure.

The hype gets old.
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Re: Bryce Harper

Postby kab21 » Mon Jun 15, 2009 7:16 pm

mac-unit wrote:I just don't see how they can keep spending when there not getting anyone to go to the games. They're 27th of 30 for home games and it will only get worse as they make a legitimate run for the .250 winning percentage.



Arguably they aren't really spending (and haven't been). They have a 60M payroll with NJohnson, DYoung and Kearns coming off the books next year (17M savings after buying out Kearns options). Cabrera and Olsen are on their way to being non-tendered saving the team another 5M. Belliard and Beimal are two more potential FA's (another 4M). That's about 26M potentially off of an already low payroll with Dunn (4M), Zim (3M) and Willingham (arb raise) the only Nats with significant raises next season.

This team can throw 20-25M at the top players in consecutive drafts imo.
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Re: Bryce Harper

Postby Steve-o » Mon Jun 15, 2009 8:16 pm

kab21 wrote:
mac-unit wrote:I just don't see how they can keep spending when there not getting anyone to go to the games. They're 27th of 30 for home games and it will only get worse as they make a legitimate run for the .250 winning percentage.



Arguably they aren't really spending (and haven't been). They have a 60M payroll with NJohnson, DYoung and Kearns coming off the books next year (17M savings after buying out Kearns options). Cabrera and Olsen are on their way to being non-tendered saving the team another 5M. Belliard and Beimal are two more potential FA's (another 4M). That's about 26M potentially off of an already low payroll with Dunn (4M), Zim (3M) and Willingham (arb raise) the only Nats with significant raises next season.

This team can throw 20-25M at the top players in consecutive drafts imo.


I completely agree. It's the only way that they can make their product get better. And in the long run, it's cheaper than signing free agents.
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Re: Bryce Harper

Postby Omaha Red Sox » Thu Jun 18, 2009 10:14 am

Update I read on another site, looks like he's planning on community college this fall and is currently enrolled. He'll go for his GED so he'll be eligible for the 2010 draft. Has anybody considered the very real possibility of Harper catching Strasburg? I'm afraid of what would happen.
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Re: Bryce Harper

Postby KCollins1304 » Thu Jun 18, 2009 11:48 am

Omaha Red Sox wrote:Update I read on another site, looks like he's planning on community college this fall and is currently enrolled. He'll go for his GED so he'll be eligible for the 2010 draft. Has anybody considered the very real possibility of Harper catching Strasburg? I'm afraid of what would happen.


Strasburg will probably have already blown out his arm by the time Harper gets up in 2013 at the earliest, more likely 2015.
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Re: Bryce Harper

Postby Bobbleheadrusty » Thu Jun 18, 2009 10:14 pm

KCollins1304 wrote:
Omaha Red Sox wrote:Update I read on another site, looks like he's planning on community college this fall and is currently enrolled. He'll go for his GED so he'll be eligible for the 2010 draft. Has anybody considered the very real possibility of Harper catching Strasburg? I'm afraid of what would happen.


Strasburg will probably have already blown out his arm by the time Harper gets up in 2013 at the earliest, more likely 2015.

Finally a reasonable assessment on this kid.


Lets look at the first HS hitter taken the two decade or so.

2008 Tim Beckham, too soon to tell
2007 Mike Moustakas, developing slowly, too soon to tell
2006 Billy Rowell, .265 MilB BA, hasnt gotten above high A
2005 Justin Upton, legit stud
2004 Matt Bush, out of baseball
2003 Delmon Young, Part time major leaguer, 3rd outfielder type at best
2002 BJ Upton, hell of a ballplayer
2001 Joe Mauer, Stud
2000 Adrian Gonzalez, Stud
1999 Josh Hamilton, First 8 years wasted, worthless to original franchise.
1998 Corey Patterson, 3rd/4th outfielder type
1997 Vernon Wells, Stud
1996 Eric Chavez, above average player for a few years
1995 Ben Davis, crap
1994 Ben Grieve, crap
1993 A-Rod, Stud
1992 Phil Nevin, below average ML starter.
1991 Dmitri Young, above average crap
1990 Chipper Jones, Stud
1989 Tyler Houston, crap



So out of 20 players I count 8 who are/were worth their pick. If you give Hamilton a pass and assume the last three all develop (a stretch) you are looking at a 60% success rate.

Also consider... He will be playing more games at a younger age then most prospect and will be a year younger then every one of those names above. My money is on him developing, but I wouldnt put 30M on it.
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Re: Bryce Harper

Postby Omaha Red Sox » Thu Jun 18, 2009 10:43 pm

Bobbleheadrusty wrote:
KCollins1304 wrote:
Omaha Red Sox wrote:Update I read on another site, looks like he's planning on community college this fall and is currently enrolled. He'll go for his GED so he'll be eligible for the 2010 draft. Has anybody considered the very real possibility of Harper catching Strasburg? I'm afraid of what would happen.


Strasburg will probably have already blown out his arm by the time Harper gets up in 2013 at the earliest, more likely 2015.

Finally a reasonable assessment on this kid.


Lets look at the first HS hitter taken the two decade or so.

2008 Tim Beckham, too soon to tell
2007 Mike Moustakas, developing slowly, too soon to tell
2006 Billy Rowell, .265 MilB BA, hasnt gotten above high A
2005 Justin Upton, legit stud
2004 Matt Bush, out of baseball
2003 Delmon Young, Part time major leaguer, 3rd outfielder type at best
2002 BJ Upton, hell of a ballplayer
2001 Joe Mauer, Stud
2000 Adrian Gonzalez, Stud
1999 Josh Hamilton, First 8 years wasted, worthless to original franchise.
1998 Corey Patterson, 3rd/4th outfielder type
1997 Vernon Wells, Stud
1996 Eric Chavez, above average player for a few years
1995 Ben Davis, crap
1994 Ben Grieve, crap
1993 A-Rod, Stud
1992 Phil Nevin, below average ML starter.
1991 Dmitri Young, above average crap
1990 Chipper Jones, Stud
1989 Tyler Houston, crap



So out of 20 players I count 8 who are/were worth their pick. If you give Hamilton a pass and assume the last three all develop (a stretch) you are looking at a 60% success rate.

Also consider... He will be playing more games at a younger age then most prospect and will be a year younger then every one of those names above. My money is on him developing, but I wouldnt put 30M on it.


For the record, were any of those 20 players as hyped as Strassy or Bryce are right now? There is certainly no sure things, but I get the feeling those of us who are amazed by these young talents are being chastised simply for recognizing these talents and suggesting that on what we've seen they have amazing potential to be really special players.
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Re: Bryce Harper

Postby Bobbleheadrusty » Thu Jun 18, 2009 11:31 pm

Omaha Red Sox wrote:
Bobbleheadrusty wrote:
KCollins1304 wrote:
Strasburg will probably have already blown out his arm by the time Harper gets up in 2013 at the earliest, more likely 2015.

Finally a reasonable assessment on this kid.


Lets look at the first HS hitter taken the two decade or so.

2008 Tim Beckham, too soon to tell
2007 Mike Moustakas, developing slowly, too soon to tell
2006 Billy Rowell, .265 MilB BA, hasnt gotten above high A
2005 Justin Upton, legit stud
2004 Matt Bush, out of baseball
2003 Delmon Young, Part time major leaguer, 3rd outfielder type at best
2002 BJ Upton, hell of a ballplayer
2001 Joe Mauer, Stud
2000 Adrian Gonzalez, Stud
1999 Josh Hamilton, First 8 years wasted, worthless to original franchise.
1998 Corey Patterson, 3rd/4th outfielder type
1997 Vernon Wells, Stud
1996 Eric Chavez, above average player for a few years
1995 Ben Davis, crap
1994 Ben Grieve, crap
1993 A-Rod, Stud
1992 Phil Nevin, below average ML starter.
1991 Dmitri Young, above average crap
1990 Chipper Jones, Stud
1989 Tyler Houston, crap



So out of 20 players I count 8 who are/were worth their pick. If you give Hamilton a pass and assume the last three all develop (a stretch) you are looking at a 60% success rate.

Also consider... He will be playing more games at a younger age then most prospect and will be a year younger then every one of those names above. My money is on him developing, but I wouldnt put 30M on it.


For the record, were any of those 20 players as hyped as Strassy or Bryce are right now? There is certainly no sure things, but I get the feeling those of us who are amazed by these young talents are being chastised simply for recognizing these talents and suggesting that on what we've seen they have amazing potential to be really special players.


I would say that in each year most of those players were just as hyped (remembering that the internet as a tool for this sort of forum is still very new). Bush for example.

The parallels between Hamilton and Harper are the ones I would worry about. The HUGE hype machine. The parental interference. Even similar backgrounds.

And say what you will about last years Home Run Derby, but Hamilton is a 28 year old who has had 1.5 good seasons.
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Re: Bryce Harper

Postby Steve-o » Thu Jun 18, 2009 11:54 pm

Bobbleheadrusty wrote:I would say that in each year most of those players were just as hyped (remembering that the internet as a tool for this sort of forum is still very new). Bush for example.


My recollection on Bush was that the only team that really loved him was his hometown team, SD. I think the general scouting consensus was that he was an overdraft. In fact, even in 2004, I think he was widely regarded as the worst #1 ever taken.

Bobbleheadrusty wrote:So out of 20 players I count 8 who are/were worth their pick. If you give Hamilton a pass and assume the last three all develop (a stretch) you are looking at a 60% success rate.


I seem to remember a Jim Callis Ask BA column about the success of first round and first overall picks. I wish I could find it (I think I read it 6 mo to a year ago), but the conclusions were pretty obvious. Players selected in the first round were more likely to make it to the majors and contribute and players selected first overall were even more likely to be successful. You poo-poo a 60% success rate (and frankly I disagree with you assessment and method on some of those guys), but compare that to the success rate of the lower spots in the draft. I'm sure you'll find that the first spot succeeds at a much higher rate.
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