Whats Wrong with Kinsler?

[ReincarnatedIntoCansecoBiceps]

After on 0-4 outing this sunday afternoon, Kinsler is now batting at a cool .260. On top of that his stolen bases are few and far between, the last time he stole one was nearly two weeks ago. He's on the wrong side of the appropriate strike out rate, and don't wont change even if he does heat up.

The biggest concern coming into this year was his health, yet here he is playing nearly every game, but just completely falling off from his first month of the year. Perhaps hes not healthy and he wants to play for his first place team, perhaps a DL stint is in the near future.

...perhaps i should trade him?

I also have Brian Roberts. Who do you think would fair better statistically when its all said and done?

[LostInTheBoom]

It's hard to steal bases when you're not getting on base, so I'm not sure that's a reliable indicator for an injury. His OBP is .265 so far this month...

My guess is it's just a slump but I don't have any inside info...his trade value won't be super high right now, so I think it's worth the risk of waiting things out with him. He's a proven fantasy stud when he's in the lineup based off of the last few years.

[Rollotommasi]

no injury, no slump

the hot streak focked his swing


LD is down to 14%, FB is up to 55%


basically he's trying to hit HRs in every at-bat instead of hitting for average

[Verundia]

Am I wrong or the dropoff started right after Lackey threw at him on May 16th? he hit 2 homers the day before, and only 4 since! Maybe he is still scared or less aggressive?

[Montana168]

Rollo....looks like you hit it on the nose. his career LD/FB% is about 20/45, and like you stated, it is at 14/54 right now which is a giant difference. hopefully ron washington notices this difference and can help him get it corrected because ever since that excellent start to the season he has been close to terrible minus a few HR here and there. heres to hoping that he can start turning it around real soon..

[LostInTheBoom]

Yeah, looking at those numbers I have to agree completely. I'm sure that some time in the cage will help him get things straightened out, because he's too good a hitter not to come around...until then, play Roberts and stash Kinsler on your bench? I still think that trading Kinsler would end up badly for you because you won't receive good value for him right now...

[Splendid61]

no injury, no slump

the hot streak focked his swing


LD is down to 14%, FB is up to 55%


basically he's trying to hit HRs in every at-bat instead of hitting for average

I disagree. If that were the case, I think we'd see a lot more K's from Kinsler... he only has 38 K's in 250 AB (and only 10 K's in 111 AB in May when he batted .243 for the month).

The problem is he's only seeing 45% strikes, which is down from 53% in 2008. Partly because he's expanded his zone slightly, now swinging at 26% of pitches outside the strike zone as opposed to 23% in 2008. But the biggest reason that Kinsler isn't getting pitches to hit is the lineup around him.

The Rangers are terrible at getting on base, .321 team OBP. And only the Indians strikeout more often. That's a scary recipe for unproductive plate appearances. Nelson Cruz, Chris Davis, and Hank Blalock are the big culprits. It was Milton Bradley's .436 OBP that made a world a difference last year. With all the outs behind Kinsler, it's no wonder he's not getting strikes.

While Kinsler needs to be a little more selective at the plate, he's unlikely to see more strikes until Cruz, Davis, and Blalock cut down their O-Swing% and/or improve their Contact rates. Given that all 3 are free-swingers who try to hit the ball out of the park, it seems unlikely that they're all of a sudden going to make the necessary improvements (or are even capable of doing so). So Michael Young needs to snap out of his June slump and Josh Hamilton needs to get back sooner than later.

Here's one positive: Kinsler's Infield Hit% of 0% indicates that his .260 batting average is abnormally low. Despite hitting 32% groundballs (same as 2008), he's yet to leg out an infield hit this year. His batting average would .275 if his Infield Hit% was at his career average of 5%. And for a guy with his speed, his Infield Hit% should really be closer to 10%.

[Reeron]

Damn Splendid61, you nailed it perfectly. That's one of the best, and insightful, posts I've ever seen.

[kemper5]

To me Kinslers a .280/ 21 HR/ 78 RBI/ 27 SB / 97 Run guy..He gets these hot streaks going and cools off fast or gets hurt

[B-Chad]

I'm not even mildly concerned about Kinsler. His .254 BABIP is almost a full 50 points lower then his career BABIP. Yeah, his LD% is down from last year, but his increased FB's may turn to be a blessing when it starts heating up and the ball starts carrying better in Arlington, granted that will hurt in bigger road ballparks, but perhaps he'll take a better LD approach on the road, and keep hitting fly balls and creating loft at home. Not sure, but overall, this is just a cool streak, partly because his LD's are down, and also partly because everything he puts in play is finding a glove.