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The Official Trade Predictions Thread

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Re: The Official Trade Predictions Thread

Postby CadensDad » Sun Jun 14, 2009 1:18 pm

AussieDodger wrote:
CadensDad wrote: I don't see KC getting Holliday


Explain


KC doesn't have the kind of cash to make that move happen. I don't see them moving big prospects right now considering the youth on their team for a 1/2 year rental. It's all specualtion on my part of course
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Re: The Official Trade Predictions Thread

Postby AussieDodger » Sun Jun 14, 2009 1:30 pm

CadensDad wrote:
AussieDodger wrote:
CadensDad wrote: I don't see KC getting Holliday


Explain


KC doesn't have the kind of cash to make that move happen. I don't see them moving big prospects right now considering the youth on their team for a 1/2 year rental. It's all specualtion on my part of course


That's why I suggested we pay what's left on his contract.
Not a lot of teams will be able to add $6-7 mil, but if we eat it there are a lot of teams (your Braves included) who would love to pony up the prospects to secure Holliday.
Seeing as our payroll is only $62 mil, it's not like we're under pressure to cut back. ;-D
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Re: The Official Trade Predictions Thread

Postby Syfo-Dyas » Sun Jun 14, 2009 1:41 pm

AussieDodger wrote:
Syfo-Dyas wrote:I cant give a source, but Im pretty sure Ive heard or read (but most likely I watched a ballgame, cause I dont really read Jays news) that Blue Jays management stated that they dont think they can get anybody as valueable for the team as Halladay, in a trade.


I've got 2.........

Blue Jays GM J.P. Ricciardi told Jon Heyman of SI.com on Saturday that his club isn't actively shopping Roy Halladay and would need a "boatload" in return if a deal was made.
"I don't think we're in the market to do that at his point," said Ricciardi. "We like our team next year with Halladay. ... If we ever did get to that point, we'd want a boatload. And I don't know whether anyone would offer a boatload. But obviously, we're not at that point."

The Jays are off to a franchise record 17-9 start and aren't likely to be sellers if they can keep up the pace. But you can be sure Ricciardi will be fielding phone calls either way.


http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2009/05/the-asking-price-for-doc-halladay.html


Blue Jays GM J.P. Ricciardi doesn't see his club trading Roy Halladay this season. "I still don't see us doing it," said Ricciardi. "I know ownership doesn't want to do it. And I don't think, in my gut, that Doc really wants to be anywhere else."


http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2009/04/starks-latest-halladay-vlad-magglio.html


However, those quotes are from April 23 and May 2 when the Blue Jays were on fire.
Of course a GM isn't going to talk about a reconstruction that early. It'll queer the market for his trade chips.

Now that Toronto have come back to reality (and being 17-21 since May 2), with the Yankees and Red Sox playing well, and Tampa Bay having the most runs in baseball, it should be becoming clear it's sell time.
With chief trade rival Peavy being nearly impossible to move with the NTC and injury, Ricciardi should be able to extract a king's ransom for Halladay especially if he offers to chip in half of the contract.
The more I think about it the more it makes sense. Especially if you take into account that you can't believe a word Ricciardi says to the media. ;-D


good job finding it, still I think Riccardi wont be able to get anything close what he wants.
Halladay singlehandedly can win 20 games every year, while pitching complete games. No wonder that he wants the Moon the Stars and Sun. And I wonder that anyone would be able to give up half of it.
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Re: The Official Trade Predictions Thread

Postby SpecialFNK » Sun Jun 14, 2009 3:31 pm

we all saw what Sabathia did last season with Milwaukee after being traded from Cleveland. Halladay could do better.
the Jays are making a mistake right now ..not by trading/not trading Halladay, but by not negotiating an extension. ive heard that Halladay has said he is interested in resigning with the Jays after his contract is up after next season. not surprising, what else would he say? even if he wants to leave hes not going to say so. even if he does want to stay it all depends on money. he could get one of the biggest contracts for a pitcher. can the Jays afford that? he has allready signed for less than market value on his current contract with Toronto, would he do it again? even if he is willing to take less, whats the number? he could get something similar to what Sabathia and Santana got. SHOULD the Jays pay that much for Halladay? they allready overpaying on Wells for 20+ MIL a season long term. can they afford to pay Wells AND Halladay $20+ MIL a season long term AND put a contending team on the field? Halladay this season is making $14.25 MIL and next season will make $15.75 MIL. IF Halladay was willing to take less and sign for say $17-$19 it might be worth doing, but they should know that right now.
the Jays could/should get one of the biggest return package of players for Halladay. i dont think the Jays should trade Halladay just to trade him and get what they can, but if they can get a package of players capible of getting then its probually the right move for the future of the organization. by trading Halladay sure its going to upset fans, but by keeping him/signing him long term for big bucks and pleasing fans they are going to continue to be what they have been.. an average team having to have everything go right in a season to contend in the AL East.
im not going to try and come up with a team or a package of players, but IMO the best move for the future of the Jays would be to trade Halladay IF they get the right package of players.

i dont remember the website address now, but it was linked in mlbtraderumors.com. it had some predictions, or more so him guessing. one of the players he had was Aubrey Huff being traded, which isnt surprising.. but he had him going to LA Angels. the Angels currently have Morales at 1B. Morales actually has more HR than Huff with his 2 over the last 2 games. would the Angels still look for someone more offensive or stay with Morales?
recently at mlbtraderumors.com there was a quote from the Angels that everyone in the infield was available. (if they are looking for someone else at 1B id like to trade Morales while he still has good value)
i imagine Huff would be a target to be traded. a player not doing that well right now, but with a history of improving in the 2nd half.

one of the players the Marlins had previously been reported to being traded was Cody Ross before the Braves acquired McLouth. im guessing they are still looking to trade Ross? and to a team where he would be a regular?

with Tony Gwynn JR doing well with the Padres, what happens when Hairston returns? would the Padres keep Gwynn starting and maybe trade Hairston? seeing that Tony Gwynn SR was such a great Padre for so long could it be a good move for the orginization to keep Gwynn JR in the starting lineup?
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Re: The Official Trade Predictions Thread

Postby jswede » Sun Jun 14, 2009 10:50 pm

SpecialFNK wrote:we all saw what Sabathia did last season with Milwaukee after being traded from Cleveland. Halladay could do better.


This is just a gut feel, or is it based in any kind of reality? Sabathia in MIL went 11-2 in 17 starts, 7 CG (3 CG SO), 1.65era, 128:25 k:bb. Anything is possible, but Halladay has never had a half season that good before.
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Re: The Official Trade Predictions Thread

Postby y2jayjk » Mon Jun 15, 2009 4:00 am

To bring more to this thread:


Rumors of Dye and Jenks being moved by the Whitesox before the deadline.

Discuss.
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Re: The Official Trade Predictions Thread

Postby mweir145 » Mon Jun 15, 2009 6:17 am

Considering the Jays' goal is to contend in 2010 (and considering Halladay may actually re-sign this winter), I don't see any chance JP Ricciardi trades him.

And unless they undergo some kind of major rebuilding process or JP Ricciardi is fired (neither of those things will happen this year), I don't think it's a very good strategy either.
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Re: The Official Trade Predictions Thread

Postby mweir145 » Mon Jun 15, 2009 6:19 am

jswede wrote:
SpecialFNK wrote:we all saw what Sabathia did last season with Milwaukee after being traded from Cleveland. Halladay could do better.


This is just a gut feel, or is it based in any kind of reality? Sabathia in MIL went 11-2 in 17 starts, 7 CG (3 CG SO), 1.65era, 128:25 k:bb. Anything is possible, but Halladay has never had a half season that good before.

#1. His 2005 season before he got "Menched" was actually quite close to that.

#2. Halladay's never had the good fortune of pitching in the joke NL Central division before.
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Re: The Official Trade Predictions Thread

Postby mweir145 » Mon Jun 15, 2009 6:38 am

SpecialFNK wrote:the Jays are making a mistake right now ..not by trading/not trading Halladay, but by not negotiating an extension.

Halladay likes to focus on pitching during the season. He leaves contract talks for the offseason and the Jays respect that. JP has said many times that he will try to re-sign him then.

ive heard that Halladay has said he is interested in resigning with the Jays after his contract is up after next season. not surprising, what else would he say? even if he wants to leave hes not going to say so. even if he does want to stay it all depends on money. he could get one of the biggest contracts for a pitcher. can the Jays afford that?

A couple of things...yes, the Jays can afford any player they want. They have an incredibly successful corporation that owns them, and I'm fairly confident they would be willing to give Halladay anything he asked from them. He is the Toronto Blue Jays right now.

However, I don't think Halladay's focus is money. It's never been about that. It's always been about having a chance at winning a World Series. If he feels he can accomplish that in Toronto still, he'll stay. If he doesn't feel that way, he'll probably go.

Also...the last time he signed a contract extension with the team he took a major bargain because he wanted to stay in Toronto. Who is to say it couldn't happen again?

the Jays could/should get one of the biggest return package of players for Halladay.

Judging by recent trades for aces, they wouldn't get anything near the production that Halladay will likely give for the remainder of his career.

i dont think the Jays should trade Halladay just to trade him and get what they can, but if they can get a package of players capible of getting then its probually the right move for the future of the organization. by trading Halladay sure its going to upset fans, but by keeping him/signing him long term for big bucks and pleasing fans they are going to continue to be what they have been.. an average team having to have everything go right in a season to contend in the AL East.

Trading away the best pitcher in baseball would only help to enhance the mediocrity of the organization, IMO. The real problem with the team has been the lack of overall spending, both in FA and especially the draft. They finally decided to go over slot last week like most of the other teams in baseball (at least, I hope they'll sign the players they drafted), which might be a sign that things are finally changing.

Here's the bottomline...if they are ever going to trade Halladay, it's going to come this winter, or more likely, the trade deadline of 2010. But that's assuming he doesn't re-sign in a few months from now.



Edit: It's nothing that I didn't just write, but here's the latest I could find on the trade talk, or lack thereof:

From last week: http://www.latimes.com/sports/la-sp-bbl ... 3529.story

Halladay will make $15.75 million next season, but the Blue Jays have 10 other starting pitchers with major league experience, none beyond his first year of salary arbitration next year.

That should leave money for Toronto to spend on offense, and that means Halladay probably won't be available this winter. Ricciardi said he plans to talk to Halladay about an extension in the off-season, but even without an agreement the Blue Jays probably will keep him and try to win next year too, even if that means losing him with nothing to show except draft picks.

"That's the way we look at it," Ricciardi said. "We've got a surplus of good, controllable young pitching. If we perform offensively, we could be in this thing. Without him, we know we can't.

"We're not going to be a playoff team without Roy Halladay."
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Re: The Official Trade Predictions Thread

Postby SpecialFNK » Mon Jun 15, 2009 10:36 am

Ricciardi should have been fired allready. his contract is up after next season aswell, and i hanvt seen much that would make me say he deserves a contract extension himself. his drafting is surely questionable. i dont know who the Jays drafted recently except for their 1st pick, but this guy doesnt exactly excite me for the future. i havnt done research on this player, only going on the write up from rotoworld.com but they say about this player..
Blue Jays selected Kennesaw State RHP Chad Jenkins with the 20th pick.
Jenkins has a sinking low-90s fastball and a plus slider. He's also displayed some potential with his changeup. He probably doesn't have more than third-starter upside and he may be more of a No. 4, but he has the build and arsenal of a 200- or 220-inning guy.

not what i would except from a 1st round pick, a 200+ #3/#4 innings eater. i dont really know who went in the picks following him, but i would think with a 1st round pick you want someone with future star potential, like the Jays got when they drafted Travis Snider.

as for the Jays ownership. their main owner Ted Rogers died this past offseason. i dont even know who the CEO is of Rogers coorperation right now, but i dont think putting money into the baseball team is one of their top priorities. if anything in this economy baseball relations are probually near the bottom of priorities.

as for Halladay potentially being great in the NL. i havnt looked at any numbers, but he has spent his entire career in the AL East. a move to the NL would seem to be much easier for him.

if Halladay is not traded this season i still think it is something they should seriously explore after the season.

- if the White Sox are looking to trade Jenks and Dye, would other veterans also be out there, like Thome and Konerko?

- with Lowrie coming back soon from the DL would the Red Sox still be looking for a SS? there was word recently of the Sox being interested in a mystery SS from Atlanta. some reading Braves fans were saying it likely was not Yunel Escobar, but with Escobar's benching yesturday and rumours of teammates not being happy with him, could he be a serious option to be traded to Boston?
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