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Ibanez accused of PED use

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Re: Ibanez accused of PED use

Postby LostInTheBoom » Fri Jun 12, 2009 6:59 pm

Check out Joe Posnanski's article on Ibanez:
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/w ... nez/1.html

Posnanski makes a pretty decent case for Ibanez just being a streaky player...and illustrates that he has had several similar hot streaks in 50-game stretches in the past.
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Re: Ibanez accused of PED use

Postby Splendid61 » Fri Jun 12, 2009 7:29 pm

DbacksRback wrote:I understand what you are saying and this is very rare. He obviously is seeing the ball well and even his outs are very sharp. This could just be a very solid strech he is on and could cool down(hope he doesnt) and make his #'s look just above average. NL pitching with a lot of protection can also help. I watch him play everyday and his swing just looks there and he does not get fooled too often. Im just not going to put the idea of Ped's just because he is having a great first half. Im going to let the season play out and just go from there. Even his defense has been great this year, he has been all around solid


Ibanez is very streaky indeed, but he's already accumulated a full season's worth of HRs (he averaged 22 HR per season over the past 7 full seasons) and we're only 10 weeks into the 26-week long season.

And Ibanez hasn't exactly had protection behind him as a Phillie. He was batting 6th most of the year, before being moved up to 5th. If you want data that the supposed "protection" behind him hasn't made any difference, check out Fangraphs. Ibanez is seeing the same breakdown of pitches and percentage of strikes as he did in Seattle.

Again, it's very rare for 37-year-olds to hit like this. And it's statistically unchartered terriority for 37-year-olds without a history of power. I'd like to believe this statical outlier is not the result of PEDs, but that would be naive.
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Re: Ibanez accused of PED use

Postby LostInTheBoom » Fri Jun 12, 2009 8:07 pm

As Posnanski writes: (I edited to save space but check out the full article here: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/w ... nez/1.html)

Through 55 games, Ibanez was hitting .329/.386/.676 with 19 homers.

In 2006, he hit 18 homers and drove in 57 runs in a 52-game stretch.

Other examples of his previous hot streaks include:

2002. He had a 50-game streak -- June 7 to Aug. 2 -- when he hit .328/.385/.704 with 15 doubles, five triples, 15 homers, 54 RBI

2003. He had a 55-game stretch where he hit .326/.360/.514

2004. He hit .365 over a 54-game stretch.

2005. He started slowly and then hit .330/.400/.524 over his next 55 games.

2007. Over the last 52 games in the season, Ibanez hit .363/.425/.652 with 15 homers.

2008. In a 55-game stretch, July 12 to Sept. 14, he hit .374/.435/.648 with 17 doubles, two triples, 13 homers at Safeco.


If he does this over the course of the entire season, then I can understand the skepticism and the PED talk. But it's not like it's the first time this guy has hit for an OPS of over 1.000 for a 50-60 game stretch. If anything, his performance thus far just leads me to believe that he is heading for a fall. He has had a hot streak of 50 games or so in each of the last 7 seasons and if ever there were a sell high candidate, it's him, because he can't keep this kind of production up over the course of a full season. He has proven that point time and time again. SELL! SELL! SELL!
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Re: Ibanez accused of PED use

Postby DbacksRback » Sat Jun 13, 2009 2:53 am

LostInTheBoom wrote:As Posnanski writes: (I edited to save space but check out the full article here: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/w ... nez/1.html)

Through 55 games, Ibanez was hitting .329/.386/.676 with 19 homers.

In 2006, he hit 18 homers and drove in 57 runs in a 52-game stretch.

Other examples of his previous hot streaks include:

2002. He had a 50-game streak -- June 7 to Aug. 2 -- when he hit .328/.385/.704 with 15 doubles, five triples, 15 homers, 54 RBI

2003. He had a 55-game stretch where he hit .326/.360/.514

2004. He hit .365 over a 54-game stretch.

2005. He started slowly and then hit .330/.400/.524 over his next 55 games.

2007. Over the last 52 games in the season, Ibanez hit .363/.425/.652 with 15 homers.

2008. In a 55-game stretch, July 12 to Sept. 14, he hit .374/.435/.648 with 17 doubles, two triples, 13 homers at Safeco.


If he does this over the course of the entire season, then I can understand the skepticism and the PED talk. But it's not like it's the first time this guy has hit for an OPS of over 1.000 for a 50-60 game stretch. If anything, his performance thus far just leads me to believe that he is heading for a fall. He has had a hot streak of 50 games or so in each of the last 7 seasons and if ever there were a sell high candidate, it's him, because he can't keep this kind of production up over the course of a full season. He has proven that point time and time again. SELL! SELL! SELL!


Nice post....hot streaks are not uncommon and this is not as for out of the ordinary as some say
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Re: Ibanez accused of PED use

Postby Splendid61 » Sat Jun 13, 2009 6:46 am

DbacksRback wrote:Nice post....hot streaks are not uncommon and this is not as for out of the ordinary as some say

It's true hot streaks in general are not uncommon and Ibanez has sustained extend hot streaks in the past. However, having your all-time best hot streak (21 HR in 56 games) at age 37 is extremely uncommon. Got any examples of players with similar career numbers to Ibanez doing something similar at age 37?
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Re: Ibanez accused of PED use

Postby LostInTheBoom » Sat Jun 13, 2009 10:36 am

The thing you have to understand with Ibanez is that he was a late bloomer, and his body has not taken the beating that a typical 37-year old playing in the major leagues would have. He never played more than 95 games in a season (minor leagues or in the majors) until his age-24 season, and did not become a major league regular until age 30 with the Kansas City Royals.

His core numbers over the past two seasons have remained steady or have slightly improved, so there was no evidence that he was in decline. (.291 .351 .480 in 2007, .293 .358 .479 in 2008). Ibanez is also not a true slugger...many of his home runs are fence scrapers that could easily have been doubles. Look at his extra base hit total in 2006 (his career season when he hit 33 HRs) compared to the last two years:

2006: 71 in 159 games
2007: 61 in 149 games
2008: 69 in 162 games

Was Ibanez's 2006 season really that much better than his season last year? Looks to me like he got lucky with his 2B/HR ratio because his BA and OBP (.289 .353) were basically identical and his slugging percentage (.516) only boosted because of the HR increase. All I'm trying to say is this: his numbers have basically been consistent for the last three seasons. Now, he has left a terrible park to hit in an hitting haven of a division where Aaron Rowand can hit 27 HRs (17 home + 10 away). With his steady performance over the last three years, one would expect him to improve his numbers in a better hitting environment. Is hitting 39 extra base hits in 59 games normally a suspiciously hot streak for any player not named Pujols? Yes. But taking Ibanez's hot/cold tendencies into consideration, is it that much different than the 32 extra base hits in 50 games that he had last year, playing half of his games at Safeco?

By the end of the season, he will likely have a batting average between .285 and .305, an OBP between .350 and .375 and a slugging percentage between .490 and .530. Good numbers, and probably a bit better than his stats from the last few seasons but not otherworldly, and accounted for by his change in venue. If I'm wrong, feel free to call me out on it after the season. For now, though, let's sit back and see what he does over the rest of the year...as I said in my last post, I would definitely sell high on this guy because all past indicators would suggest that he will soon come down to earth...
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