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Thoughts on Raul ...

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Re: Thoughts on Raul ...

Postby Splendid61 » Wed Jun 10, 2009 11:53 am

great gretzky wrote:But I think it is reasonable to not attribute this to roids.

You're kidding yourself to think performancer enhancers are not at work... do how know unbelievably rare it is for a 37 year old (who's hit 25 HR only once before) to do what Ibanez is doing?

In MLB history, 35 HR by a player who was age 37 or older (on June 30) has been done exactly 19 times. You'll notice that this list is full of guys who were established HR hitters... and none of them had a career high of 33 HR or had hit 25+ HR only once before.

Hank Aaron (age 37) .......... 47 HR in 1971 .... 8 seasons of 40+ HR
Barry Bonds (age 37) .......... 46 HR in 2002 .... confirmed PED use
Barry Bonds (age 38) .......... 45 HR in 2003 .... confirmed PED use
Barry Bonds (age 39) .......... 45 HR in 2004 .... confirmed PED use
Andres Galarraga (age 37) ... 44 HR in 1998 .... 3 seasons of 40+ HR
Rafael Palmeiro (age 37) ..... 43 HR in 2002 .... confirmed PED use
Babe Ruth (age 37) ............ 41 HR in 1932 .... 9 seasons of 45+ HR
Hank Sauer (age 37) .......... 41 HR in 1954 .... past HR champ
Darrell Evans (age 38) ........ 40 HR in 1985 .... career high of 41 HR
Hank Aaron (age 39) .......... 40 HR in 1973 .... 8 seasons of 40+ HR
Moises Alou (age 37) .......... 39 HR in 2004 .... 3 seasons of 30+ HR
Frank Thomas (age 38) ....... 39 HR in 2006 .... 5 seasons of 40+ HR
Rafael Palmeiro (age 38) ..... 38 HR in 2003 .... confirmed PED use
Ted Williams (age 38) ........ 38 HR in 1957 .... led league in HR 4 times
Carlton Fisk (age 37) ......... 37 HR in 1985 .... 376 career HR
Edgar Martinez (age 37)...... 37 HR in 2000 .... 5 seasons of 25+ HR
Steve Finley (age 39) ......... 36 HR in 2004 .... 4 seasons of 30+ HR
Dave Kingman (age 37) ....... 35 HR in 1986 .... 6 seasons of 35+ HR
Mike Schmidt (age 37) ........ 35 HR in 1987 .... led league in HR 8 times


So when a hitter to suddenly finds this kind of sustained power at age 37, it certainly should raise an eyebrow.

Also, Ibanez is not simply benefiting from HR-friendly ballparks. Last week against the Padres in Petco, he homered to deep center and hit another blast to the opposite field!

Furthermore, Fangraphs shows that pitchers aren't pitching Ibanez any differently due to Philly's lineup protection... and by hitting 5th and 6th most of the year, Ibanez isn't really protected.


great gretzky wrote:So given hsi skill set and where he has played thus far, it seems reasonable to think the league switch is what helped him

His skill set as a 37 year old who's only hit 25+ HR once before?

And switching leagues is usually disadvantageous to a hitter. It's the pitcher who has the natural advantage in the first few meetings because the hitter isn't used to picking up his release point or facing his stuff before.
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Re: Thoughts on Raul ...

Postby great gretzky » Wed Jun 10, 2009 12:53 pm

Again, his skill set is a guy who hit 25 in a pitcher's park.

The nats is not a pitcher's park by any means, but their pitchers blow. Considering the wheres and against whoms he has hit the home runs against, I think its more likely than not that he isn't on steroids. I guess its fair to say damon is on them too?

Again he has 8 at home, and I don't think anyone is doubting that CBP is an extreme hitters park. 5 of his 12 road bombs were also at acknowledged launching pads. 4 were versus washington, that while the park is pretty neutral, the pitching itself isn't. And 6 of his 20 have come versus the nats in general.

His homers have been hit off of

Javier Vazquez (2) at CBP
Harang (1), Mike Lincoln (1) @ Cincy
Hammel (1) @ Coors
Ohman (1) @CBP
Petite (1), Wang (1) @ Yankee Stadium
P. Feliciano (1), J. Santana @ Citi Field
S. Hill (1), E. Moreno (1) @CBP
Geer (1), Thatcher (1) @Petco

The rest have been against the Nats: D. Cabrera, Hanrahan, S. Olson (2), S. Rivera (2)

Seems to me the Santana one is ridiculous given pitcher and park. The rest are either all middling pitchers in hitting parks. I don't think this points to roids, I think it points to a professional hitter hitting mistake pitches from questionable pitching. Obviosuly, JAvier and Harang aren't scrubs, but I think park factors weigh in here too.
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Re: Thoughts on Raul ...

Postby great gretzky » Wed Jun 10, 2009 12:55 pm

Splendid61 wrote:
great gretzky wrote:But I think it is reasonable to not attribute this to roids.

You're kidding yourself to think performancer enhancers are not at work... do how know unbelievably rare it is for a 37 year old (who's hit 25 HR only once before) to do what Ibanez is doing?

In MLB history, 35 HR by a player who was age 37 or older (on June 30) has been done exactly 19 times. You'll notice that this list is full of guys who were established HR hitters... and none of them had a career high of 33 HR or had hit 25+ HR only once before.

Hank Aaron (age 37) .......... 47 HR in 1971 .... 8 seasons of 40+ HR
Barry Bonds (age 37) .......... 46 HR in 2002 .... confirmed PED use
Barry Bonds (age 38) .......... 45 HR in 2003 .... confirmed PED use
Barry Bonds (age 39) .......... 45 HR in 2004 .... confirmed PED use
Andres Galarraga (age 37) ... 44 HR in 1998 .... 3 seasons of 40+ HR
Rafael Palmeiro (age 37) ..... 43 HR in 2002 .... confirmed PED use
Babe Ruth (age 37) ............ 41 HR in 1932 .... 9 seasons of 45+ HR
Hank Sauer (age 37) .......... 41 HR in 1954 .... past HR champ
Darrell Evans (age 38) ........ 40 HR in 1985 .... career high of 41 HR
Hank Aaron (age 39) .......... 40 HR in 1973 .... 8 seasons of 40+ HR
Moises Alou (age 37) .......... 39 HR in 2004 .... 3 seasons of 30+ HR
Frank Thomas (age 38) ....... 39 HR in 2006 .... 5 seasons of 40+ HR
Rafael Palmeiro (age 38) ..... 38 HR in 2003 .... confirmed PED use
Ted Williams (age 38) ........ 38 HR in 1957 .... led league in HR 4 times
Carlton Fisk (age 37) ......... 37 HR in 1985 .... 376 career HR
Edgar Martinez (age 37)...... 37 HR in 2000 .... 5 seasons of 25+ HR
Steve Finley (age 39) ......... 36 HR in 2004 .... 4 seasons of 30+ HR
Dave Kingman (age 37) ....... 35 HR in 1986 .... 6 seasons of 35+ HR
Mike Schmidt (age 37) ........ 35 HR in 1987 .... led league in HR 8 times


So when a hitter to suddenly finds this kind of sustained power at age 37, it certainly should raise an eyebrow.

Also, Ibanez is not simply benefiting from HR-friendly ballparks. Last week against the Padres in Petco, he homered to deep center and hit another blast to the opposite field!

Furthermore, Fangraphs shows that pitchers aren't pitching Ibanez any differently due to Philly's lineup protection... and by hitting 5th and 6th most of the year, Ibanez isn't really protected.


great gretzky wrote:So given hsi skill set and where he has played thus far, it seems reasonable to think the league switch is what helped him

His skill set as a 37 year old who's only hit 25+ HR once before? Who has played on some terrible teams in a pitcher's park.

The pitchers aren't pitching him differently, because for the most part, they aren't good pitchers to begin with. He hit two blasts in petco, again against bad pitchers.

And switching leagues is usually disadvantageous to a hitter. It's the pitcher who has the natural advantage in the first few meetings because the hitter isn't used to picking up his release point or facing his stuff before.
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Re: Thoughts on Raul ...

Postby BitterDodgerFan » Wed Jun 10, 2009 1:04 pm

Field wrote:
BitterDodgerFan wrote:how did a blog entry get so much attention? there are tons of people just blindly accusing roid usage but why is this a big deal?

anyways, raul is a 2nd rounder now imo. i don't think he keeps up the HR pace but R/RBI should be there. selling high should be okay if you can get back a 1st-2nd rounder.


He's a 2nd rounder 8-o ? As in you think he'll be drafted in the 2nd round next year or owners should be trying to get a 2nd round type of talent in a trade?

He would have to continue this torrid pace for the entire year to even be considered in the 2nd round. Even then I don't think he'll be drafted that high.


yeah 2nd rounder. if he keeps up the current pace, he'll end up with 1st round stats so why not? even if his HR pace slows down. a lot worse players have been taken in the 2nd round.
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Re: Thoughts on Raul ...

Postby acsguitar » Wed Jun 10, 2009 1:32 pm

Ibanez has always been a good player so who knows
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Re: Thoughts on Raul ...

Postby Neato Torpedo » Wed Jun 10, 2009 1:34 pm

Raise your hand if you don't think a 37 year old surprise breakout slugger gets tested for steroids. *doesn't raise hand*

My preseason prediction: .303 AVG, 28 HR, 115 RBI, 90 R, 4 SB
My current prediction: .312 AVG, 40 HR, 135 RBI, 110 R, 7 SB
Current 162-game pace: .327 AVG, 57 HR, 159 RBI, 135 R, 11 SB

As an Ibanez owner I'd be tentatively shopping him but 1) I desperately need HR in the league I have him and 2) since Tom Morello doesn't play pro baseball I want to have a guy that looks like him on my team.
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Re: Thoughts on Raul ...

Postby jake_twothousandfive » Wed Jun 10, 2009 2:05 pm

Even understanding the fact that he is going to cool off, I'd still rather hang onto him than go after most other top outfielders. Grady's on the DL and hasn't been great when he has played, Hamilton just had surgery, Manny still has about 20 games left on his suspension, Quentin's pretty banged up, Soriano hasn't been very good apart from the HRs, B. J. Upton has been horrid...

I mean, who would you even target in a trade? Another hot player like Cruz, Justin Upton, or Adam Jones? I'll pass. Braun I suppose would be the best candidate, but that would be difficult to pull off.

Like someone else said earlier, in all likelihood he'd still put up good numbers even if the HRs stop.
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Re: Thoughts on Raul ...

Postby BitterDodgerFan » Wed Jun 10, 2009 2:33 pm

yeah if you need power #'s, i'd hold on to him. he's been pretty good with his power so why get rid of him?

if you desperately need steals or something, then a trade for crawford (who's another player that's ranked up there with ibanez based on this yr's stats) makes sense, but like jake says, not a lot of desirable options for other OFs from the first few rounds.
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Re: Thoughts on Raul ...

Postby Neato Torpedo » Wed Jun 10, 2009 3:12 pm

Also, has it been mentioned yet that he is now the #1 player on Yahoo? That's right, his numbers are officially more ridiculous than Zack Greinke's. :-D
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Re: Thoughts on Raul ...

Postby Bwanna » Wed Jun 10, 2009 3:21 pm

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd ... p&c_id=mlb

By Tom Singer / MLB.com

06/10/09 1:43 PM ET

Phillies outfielder Raul Ibanez is vowing to go on the offensive against people who speculate that his impressive production might be linked to the use of performance-enhancing drugs.

According to a published report, Ibanez won't take any more of the sort of conjecture that appeared on a recent Internet blog.

"I'll come after people who defame or slander me," Ibanez told the Philadelphia Inquirer, which on Tuesday had brought the questionable blog entry to light.

Posted by "JRod" at the Midwest Sports Fans site, the piece concluded that "any aging hitter who puts up numbers this much better than his career averages is going to immediately generate suspicion that the numbers are not natural, that perhaps he is under the influence of some sort of performance enhancer."

Two months into his first season in the National League, Ibanez is batting .327 with 20 home runs and 55 RBIs in 56 games. Consequently, he also leads the league's outfielders in balloting for the 2009 All-Star Game.

"It's pathetic and disgusting," Ibanez said of the blog item. "There should be some accountability for people who put that out there.

"Unfortunately, I understand the environment we're in and the events that have led us to this era of speculation. At the same time, you can't just walk down the street and accuse somebody of being a thief because they didn't have a nice car yesterday and they do today. You can't say that guy is a thief."

Ibanez, 37, signed as a free agent with the Phillies following 13 seasons with the Seattle Mariners, the most productive of them in 2006, when he batted .289 with 33 homers and 123 RBIs in 159 games.

He invited scrutiny of the means by which he has reached new levels, and said baseless speculation denies him due credit for the improvement.

"You can have my urine, my hair, my blood, my stool -- anything you can test," Ibanez told the Inquirer. "I'll give you back every dime I've ever made" if the test is positive.

"I'll put that up against the jobs of anyone who writes this stuff. Make them accountable. There should be more credibility than some 42-year-old blogger typing in his mother's basement. It demeans everything you've done with one stroke of the pen.

"It's unfair," Ibanez went on, "because this story should be about how hard work, determination, and desire trumps chemicals and shortcuts. That should be the message: desire, character, work ethic. But some guy who doesn't know me -- one idiot -- says something like this. They should be held accountable. It's cowardly."
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