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Thoughts on Raul ...

Postby great gretzky » Wed Jun 10, 2009 10:23 am

I posted this in response to another discussion on another forum, but I am curious to see what everyone thinks about the blogger who accused Ibanez of roiding.

OF course, said blogger doesn't bring up that he went from Seattle to Philly which are opposite ends of the spectrum in terms of pitching versus hitting. And the Phils have had a disproportionate amount of games versus the Nationals. 6 of his 20 homers came at the expense of the Nationals.

So, Raul has had two homers at yanks, two at cincy, 4 at Washington, 2 vs Washington, one at Colorado.

So to me, it speaks to not looking at what actually happened. He has 8 at home (hitters park) 12 away. Only problemis 5 of those away dingers came at extreme hitters parks, and 4 came at the expense of the nats. So given hsi skill set and where he has played thus far, it seems reasonable to think the league switch is what helped him

Don't get me wrong, totally awesome signing, and have always felt he was an undervalued player wth seattle. But I think it is reasonable to not attribute this to roids.

And btw, I'd be selling him if you can get value. They don't play the nats till september!
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Re: Thoughts on Raul ...

Postby Ender » Wed Jun 10, 2009 10:46 am

I'm more surprised by Theriot having 6 HR than Ibanez having 20.
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Re: Thoughts on Raul ...

Postby BitterDodgerFan » Wed Jun 10, 2009 11:12 am

how did a blog entry get so much attention? there are tons of people just blindly accusing roid usage but why is this a big deal?

anyways, raul is a 2nd rounder now imo. i don't think he keeps up the HR pace but R/RBI should be there. selling high should be okay if you can get back a 1st-2nd rounder.
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Re: Thoughts on Raul ...

Postby Rubidium » Wed Jun 10, 2009 11:13 am

great gretzky wrote:OF course, said blogger doesn't bring up that he went from Seattle to Philly which are opposite ends of the spectrum in terms of pitching versus hitting. And the Phils have had a disproportionate amount of games versus the Nationals. 6 of his 20 homers came at the expense of the Nationals.

So, Raul has had two homers at yanks, two at cincy, 4 at Washington, 2 vs Washington, one at Colorado.


Maybe I'm not looking at the right blog, but the story I read did actually go into all of that. Would someone be able to link the story so I know I'm looking at the right thing?

I actually read an article about a month ago talking about how he has done this in the past, had crazy months over 1.100 OPS (August 2008 and August 2007, for example). I feel like he's just had a prolonged hot streak to start the year, and the hot streak was amplified by the fact that he's hitting in CBP now instead of Safeco. I'm assuming he cools down soon, and if I owned Ibanez, I'd be trying to sell him for sure right now.

Unfortunately, we won't know for sure unless he tests positive, but I think it's way early to suggest that his hot start is maybe due to steroids.
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Re: Thoughts on Raul ...

Postby Field » Wed Jun 10, 2009 11:25 am

BitterDodgerFan wrote:how did a blog entry get so much attention? there are tons of people just blindly accusing roid usage but why is this a big deal?

anyways, raul is a 2nd rounder now imo. i don't think he keeps up the HR pace but R/RBI should be there. selling high should be okay if you can get back a 1st-2nd rounder.


He's a 2nd rounder 8-o ? As in you think he'll be drafted in the 2nd round next year or owners should be trying to get a 2nd round type of talent in a trade?

He would have to continue this torrid pace for the entire year to even be considered in the 2nd round. Even then I don't think he'll be drafted that high.
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Re: Thoughts on Raul ...

Postby great gretzky » Wed Jun 10, 2009 11:26 am

i actually heard this on the TV. But if the article did get into that, how could the conclusion be roids? I'm not saying it isn't possible, but it seems pretty obvisous to me, lots of extreme hitters parks, and a lot of games versus the nats. You usually do the roids for the big contract, not after.
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Re: Thoughts on Raul ...

Postby thatguy27 » Wed Jun 10, 2009 11:28 am

Ender wrote:I'm more surprised by Theriot having 6 HR than Ibanez having 20.


Theriot's power surge this season is a bit of a head scratcher, but I think you can attribute it to a change in approach. Pinella said earlier in the season that he wanted Ryan to drive the ball more, and his other numbers support this.

His average and OBP have taken a hit compared to last season. His K:BB rate is far worse than it was last season as well.

Last season in 580 ABs he had 75 BBs and 58 Ks. This season he is on pace for only 49 BBs and 85 Ks in 580 ABs. His average has dropped from .307 to .284 and his OBP from .387 to .350. His slugging percentage is, of course, way up.
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Re: Thoughts on Raul ...

Postby thatguy27 » Wed Jun 10, 2009 11:30 am

Also, 5 of Theriot's 6 HRs have come at Wrigley, which is the only ballpark that he'd ever homered in until his sole HR this season hit away from Wrigley.
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Re: Thoughts on Raul ...

Postby Rubidium » Wed Jun 10, 2009 11:38 am

great gretzky wrote:i actually heard this on the TV. But if the article did get into that, how could the conclusion be roids? I'm not saying it isn't possible, but it seems pretty obvisous to me, lots of extreme hitters parks, and a lot of games versus the nats. You usually do the roids for the big contract, not after.


This was the one I read:
http://www.midwestsportsfans.com/2009/0 ... eculation/

Again, if that isn't the right link, I would appreciate someone correcting me.

I agree with you though. I see very little reason why he would have started steroids this year, right after getting a big contract and right as MLB steps up their steroid testing a bit. I'm not saying he's not on steroids - I would hope not, but you never know these days - but I would have a hard time believing that he started them this year.
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Re: Thoughts on Raul ...

Postby jake_twothousandfive » Wed Jun 10, 2009 11:42 am

great gretzky wrote:i actually heard this on the TV. But if the article did get into that, how could the conclusion be roids? I'm not saying it isn't possible, but it seems pretty obvisous to me, lots of extreme hitters parks, and a lot of games versus the nats. You usually do the roids for the big contract, not after.


If you look at his scatter plot on HitTrackerOnline.com, it's not like many of these are just barely getting over the wall. A lot of them are moonshots. His HR at Coors was an absolute bomb.

And I don't know that I view Nationals Park as much of a hitters park. Maybe it is and I'm just not seeing it. 57 HRs have been hit there, which is pretty much in line with the league average of 58.5. Certainly the low number has to do with the Nats lack of quality hitters, but that doesn't seem to be the only reason.
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