Brag: Fleeced the n00b

[everett1987]

Brag: just got his Bay, Haren, and Broxton (ranked 9, 8 and 6 on the season respectively) for my Crawford, JP howell, and Billingsly WOOT!

[lilfrier]

I wouldn't call this fleecing. You got OF and RP upgrades for a SP downgrade. You won the deal, but I would bet on Crawford and Bay ending the season fairly close to each other, and the difference between Haren/Broxton and Howell/Billingsley to be minimal if Howell is the full-time closer. If Howell isn't good job.

[RowdyRed]

I wouldn't call it a fleecing either. Broxton is better than Howell, but Billingsley is better than Haren. Depending on whether you need power or speed, Crawford and Bay are a toss-up. I would probably prefer Crawford. You probably won the deal simply because of the difference between Broxton and Howell, but it is hardly a fleecing.

[ajk23az]

Billingsley better than Haren?? Please....

Billingsley has 7 more Ks..with 27 more walks...
Billingsley has a 1.26 WHIP to Harens 0.85
The only reason Billingsley has more wins is because of the DBacks bullpen which has blown 3 for Haren already (2 of which were 5 run leads going into the 9th)

[thejusman1]

Billingsley better than Haren?? Please....

Billingsley has 7 more Ks..with 27 more walks...
Billingsley has a 1.26 WHIP to Harens 0.85
The only reason Billingsley has more wins is because of the DBacks bullpen which has blown 3 for Haren already (2 of which were 5 run leads going into the 9th)

Exactly. On a team that already lacks run support, the Dbacks bullpen also loses leads for Haren, thereby further diminishing his win capacity. And we all know Haren usually takes a slight regression post ASB - he just can't seem to handle a full season. Bills will finish the year as a top 10 pitcher, you can bet on that. Haren will probably fall out to top 15.

[iltat]

Haren
Career: 3.61 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, .251 BAA
Pre-ASB 2008: 2.72 ERA, .95 WHIP, .211 BAA
Post-ASB 2008: 4.18 ERA, 1.97 WHIP, .294 BAA
Pre-ASB 2007: 2.30 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, .205 BAA
Post-ASB 2007: 4.15 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, .298 BAA
2009: 2.33 ERA, .85 WHIP, .198 BAA

Difference of 1.28 ERA, .34 WHIP, .053 BAA

Billingsley
Career: 3.23 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, .248 BAA
Pre-ASB 2008: 3.25 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, .232 BAA
Post-ASB 2008: 2.99 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, .270 BAA
Pre-ASB 2007: 3.62 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, .217 BAA
Post-ASB 2007: 3.12 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, .255 BAA
2009: 2.73 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, .236 BAA

Difference of .50 ERA, .12 WHIP, .012 BAA

I'd say a correction will be coming for Haren. That whole Dodgers actually winning games for Billingsley thing could prove pretty useful too.

[NWSoxaholic]

Haren
Career: 3.61 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, .251 BAA
Pre-ASB 2008: 2.72 ERA, .95 WHIP, .211 BAA
Post-ASB 2008: 4.18 ERA, 1.97 WHIP, .294 BAA
Pre-ASB 2007: 2.30 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, .205 BAA
Post-ASB 2007: 4.15 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, .298 BAA
2009: 2.33 ERA, .85 WHIP, .198 BAA

Difference of 1.28 ERA, .34 WHIP, .053 BAA

Billingsley
Career: 3.23 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, .248 BAA
Pre-ASB 2008: 3.25 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, .232 BAA
Post-ASB 2008: 2.99 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, .270 BAA
Pre-ASB 2007: 3.62 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, .217 BAA
Post-ASB 2007: 3.12 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, .255 BAA
2009: 2.73 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, .236 BAA

Difference of .50 ERA, .12 WHIP, .012 BAA

I'd say a correction will be coming for Haren. That whole Dodgers actually winning games for Billingsley thing could prove pretty useful too.

Damn you! Just had the same thing all written out and you beat me too it! So yeah, what he said^^

[RowdyRed]

So, Billingsley and Haren are close, regardless of what anyone could argue. Crawford and Bay are close by all arguements. So, how does this one become a "fleecing?" It just doesn't add up.

I prefer Billingsley because he is going to keep it up or improve a little, whereas Haren is being bought at peak value. So it is buying high on Bay and Haren both, and selling high on Crawford and Howell. That's why this is not a fleecing.

[metsfan12]

So, Billingsley and Haren are close, regardless of what anyone could argue. Crawford and Bay are close by all arguements. So, how does this one become a "fleecing?" It just doesn't add up.

I prefer Billingsley because he is going to keep it up or improve a little, whereas Haren is being bought at peak value. So it is buying high on Bay and Haren both, and selling high on Crawford and Howell. That's why this is not a fleecing.

I really don't understand your post. If those guys are relatively even, take them away and you have Broxton for Howell. How the hell is that not a fleecing? I do think that is a lopsided trade because of the closers involved. I do this alot in trades too although not to this extent, where I have a somewhat lopsided 1:1 I want and I throw in some guys on both sides that I think are even but he might think otherwise to get the trade done. Billingsly is better than Haren. Haren will put up better numbers all day but he won't get the wins that Billingsly will with that offense backing him. The only real big area that Haren will have an edge at the end of the year is in WHIP IMO. That .10 or so in WHIP isn't enough to make up for 8-10 wins.

BTW, can you guys help me out....
viewtopic.php?f=26&t=389634

[RowdyRed]

OK, but Howell for Broxton is not too drastic if Howell is the permanent closer, particularly if he needs SB (Crawford) and wins (Billingsley). The original poster implies that he wins the deal with every player involved, and I'm just not sure that is remotely true.