wanted to get some thoughts on Javier Vazquez. should he continue to be this good for the rest of the season? his ERA is 3.54 and his FIP is 2.54 ..so one would think he should actually improve? but he has some numbers that are deceiving? his K/9 is the highest of his career at 10.97%. the last 3 seasons he has had 8.64%, 8.85%, 8.17%. his career is 8.08% his BB/9 is low at 1.89%. the last 3 seasons he has had 2.64%, 2.08%, 2.49%. his career is 2.38%. his HR/9 are the lowest of his career at 0.83%. the last 3 seasons he has had 1.08%, 1.20%, 1.02%. his career is 1.18% should those numbers get closer to his career numbers? he has 1.11 WHIP. the last 3 seasons he has had 1.32/ 1.14/ 1.29/ and his career is 1.26 WHIP. he has .336 BABIP this season compared to the last 3 seasons of .328/ .297/ .321/ and his career is .311 BABIP. he has a low 69.6 LOB%. the last 3 seasons he has had 68.3%/ 74.5%/ 65.8%/ so thats not bad. his career is 70.4% his LD% is the highest of his career at 24.2%. the last 3 seasons he has had 20.1%/ 16.8%/ 19.5%/
should he be able to continue all season? or would he be someone to sell high?
I don't really see much difference in Vazquez - all of those variances can be due to sample size. The move to the NL has benefitted him greatly - don't underestimate getting three AB's against the opposing pitcher every outing (It's a shame he can't face his own team once in awhile though). That would account for the strikeouts. He still has an ERA above what you would expect based on his peripherals, but he has ALWAYS had that - the man is an enigma. I think 3.5 ERA and 1.2 WHIP is right on target for him and what I drafted for in all 3 of my leagues.
Vasquez is a guy I despartely wanted to draft, but sadly missed out on. I also tried to trade for him early in the year before his price tag climbed too high, but alas it was not meant to be.
As for his past 3 year comparison stats... those last three years were spent pitching in The Cell for the White Sox in a DH league. The switch to Atlanta in the NL east was huge for him. Check out his numbers from 2001 thru 2003 when he was in his prime with the Expos. They are better than his past 3 year comps and career averages, and closer to what he has done so far this year. I think he is definately a candidate to keep it up.
First, I'd like to cordially point out that K/9, BB/9 ratios etc are not percentages, merely ratios. He's striking 10.97 batters per 9 innings pitched, and he's K'ing 5.81 batters for every 1 he walks.
To address your point, Vazquez is a guy that for whatever reason has typically underperformed relative to his peripherals. His K/BB, WHIP, etc are typically pretty strong.
What's interesting this year is that several of his key peripheral indicators suggest he's been unlucky so far yet he's still carrying a 3.54/1.11 line. His LD rate is up, his LOB% is normal for him, his HR/FB rate is right in line with career norms, and his BABIP is actually elevated a bit (.336). The question is can he maintain this career high K/9 rate of 10.97 and K/BB rate of 5.81. I would say that's unlikely, those numbers will likely regress a bit. When they do, he could fall into the trap he always does, and that's struggling when guys are on base.
Per a great article on Vazquez by Eric Seidman on Baseball Prosepctus (dated 5/15/09), he showed that Javy's EqA jumps almost 100 points historically with runners on base, with significant upticks in OBP and SLG against (~40 points a piece). The league average pitcher's EqA jumps about 40 points, with an increase in OBP of 7 points and SLG, 14 points. If he starts walking a few more or K'ing a few less, this is going to come into play once again and hurt him a bit.
I still think he ends pretty solidly though, a guy who will have a sub-4.00 ERA and 200+ Ks. But he may be a decent trade-high candidate.
Great numbers there, scooter. I was looking at his men-on-base numbers and didn't know if that was way out of norm or not - it's the only thing that explains his relatively high ERA's. Now the question is why? My theory is that his mechanics aren't as sound from the stretch as they are from wind-up. It could also just be a mental thing, or a combination of both.
Keep in mind that the Braves' defense is much better than the White Sox D. I'm not good at breaking down and interpreting defensive stats, much less predict their impact on pitching stats, but logically that's got to be part of the reason for his success so far.