Andrew McCutchen. Thoughts???

[LloydChristmas]

Why are stolen base projections so low for McCutchen given how many people are raving about his speed? If he will bat .270 or .280, I think he can swipe 40 at a MINIMUM. Let's take a look at some historical comparisons:

McCutchen's average OBP over 5 years in the minors was about .360. Say that drops to .340 at the major league level. I think that's realistic.

Here are some players whom I feel have comparable skill sets to that of McCutchen and some of their stats:

Scott Podsednik stole 70 bases in 2004 with an OBP of .313
Juan Pierre stole 57 bases in 2005 with an OBP of .326
Willy Taveras stole 68 bases in 2008 with an OBP of .308

I could go on and on and on.

What does everyone think?

[pokerplaya]

It also depends on his ability to read pitchers and get good jumps. I don't know enough about him to comment either way but it does factor into the equation.

[hybrid]

48sb 23cs, that's his stats from 780AB in AAA. Basically that's pretty terrible success rate, though he did improve this year some. Speed isn't everything, of course he could always improve his SB% but i'll wait till he actually does it. A lot of guys have speed, doesn't mean they can steal a lot of bases.

[Field]

Yeah, he's much more explosive then the base stealers listed above, but he isn't nearly as polished. It will be interesting to follow his progression, he's an incredible athelete.

[Field]

Yeah, he's much more explosive then the base stealers listed above, but he isn't nearly as polished. It will be interesting to follow his progression, he's an incredible athelete.

I had dreams about his speed last night , that's weird. I guess that partially explains why I have 2500+ posts on a fantasy baseball website .

[AdvRider]

48sb 23cs, that's his stats from 780AB in AAA. Basically that's pretty terrible success rate ...

Yeah, but weren't most of those steal attempts in AAA against Matt Wieters ... ?

Wow, that is amazing info, thanks for posting. How could his SB/CS ratios suck THAT badly given the speed we saw on those pair of triples the other nite??? Yeah there's more to SBs than pure speed but stilll ... ... and he was running against minor league catchers. Ack.

What's Ricky Henderson doing these days, can he help this dude out? I'll keep an eye on young Andrew maybe as a SB replacement for Bourn but I don't see any reason to jump on him right now.

[Another Blown Save]

Stealing bases is not all about speed. That's why guys like Carlos Beltran is a better base stealer than other players who may have better speed.

[Neato Torpedo]

That's why Pujols is on pace for 20 SB.

[Tom Emanski AllStars]

that's why 'all slop' berkman had 18 last year....18!

[RedHopeful]

decent speed? this kid can FLY.

Incredible top-end gear . He isn't quite on the Deion level but he's as close as I've seen.

Well, Sportsouth (the Braves network) just did a comparison of Andrew's triple the other night to one of Deion's. They both make it to 3B in about 11 flat. By a millisecond, Deion beats him but being a lefty is probably what made the difference. Either way this kid is lightning quick. Once he learns pitcher's moves/gets more comfortable, he should start stealing bases.

On another note, seems like pitchers are beginning to figure him out by pitching him away...