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Slow Starters and Second Half Producers

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Slow Starters and Second Half Producers

Postby Kelly Gruber » Mon Mar 15, 2004 9:11 pm

Thinking of trades once the season progresses.
Which players will be undervalued by owners because of slow starts?
Here's who I've know of so far:

-Jim Thome
-Magglio Ordonez


Similarly, which players will be overvalued because of amazing April/firsth half starts?
Here's who I know of so far:

-Carlos Delgado
-Mike Lowell

What about pitchers?
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Postby Vladdy the Impaler » Mon Mar 15, 2004 9:14 pm

jose contreras:

before break - 4.62 ERA 1.38 WHIP in 25.1 IP
after break - 2.56 1.03 in 45.2 IP

with the yankees lineup and the pitchers he'll end up facing as the #4 starter... i see contreras putting up HUGE numbers this year.
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Postby Kelly Gruber » Mon Mar 15, 2004 9:18 pm

I completely agree, but he will likely post amazing numbers right off the bat (no pun intended). I'm interested in finding players who usually have slow starts and heat up in the second hald and visa-versa (for trading purposes). I plan on taking Contreras in my draft.
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Postby frog99 » Mon Mar 15, 2004 9:25 pm

slow starter: damon: 260 / 329 obp pre allstar 293/367 post


quick starter: hillenbrand
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Re: Slow Starters and Second Half Producers

Postby NZF » Mon Mar 15, 2004 10:26 pm

Kelly Gruber wrote:Thinking of trades once the season progresses.
Which players will be undervalued by owners because of slow starts?
Here's who I've know of so far:

-Jim Thome


Thome started a bit slow last season. You probably could put that down to a new league and all. Traditionally he hits slightly better before the All Star break. His best career month is June.
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Postby MashinSpuds » Mon Mar 15, 2004 10:29 pm

Wade Miller: the slow start king. You hate him all year until the last month.
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Postby Swinger » Mon Mar 15, 2004 10:37 pm

Eric Chavez.
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Postby Bloody Nipples » Mon Mar 15, 2004 10:43 pm

Swinger wrote:Eric Chavez.


which is he, slow or fast starter?
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Mon Mar 15, 2004 11:03 pm

People need to be very careful about drawing conclusions based on small samples. There certainly are some guys who may play better at certain points, but there just isn't enough evidence to draw the conclusion that a lot of this "slow starter" stuff means anything more than just normal variation.

Wade Miller, for example, went 4-1 and held hitters to a .179 batting average in April 2001. The last two years, he's not done as well. In 2002 Damon was 308/374/453/827 before the break, but 260/336/432/768 after it.

Unless the numbers you see are based a thousand or more plate appearances, they are unlikely to be useful for predicting the future performance of the player.
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Re: Slow Starters and Second Half Producers

Postby NZF » Mon Mar 15, 2004 11:17 pm

Kelly Gruber wrote:Similarly, which players will be overvalued because of amazing April/firsth half starts?
Here's who I know of so far:

-Carlos Delgado


What about pitchers?


You have missed on Delgado as well. Throughout his career he has slightly better 2nd half numbers.

I personally think heat up and cool down numbers are not worth taking too much notice of.

Before the start of last season Jorge Posada was recognised as a player who cooled down in the 2nd half. I can understand that with catchers who are affected by wear and tear as the season wears on but last year Posada hit .320 after the All Star break (he is a .270 career hitter!!!)

Every year someone will put a list out stressing the heat up and cool down impact. And every year half of those on the list will go the other way. IE: Garet Anderson, Rafael Furcal, Bret Boone, Vicente Padilla and Randy Wolf last year.

Having said all that here are a few players that do consistently heat up after the break. I don't believe it happens consistently in reverse very often. Mike Lowell, Shea Hillenbrand and Juan Encarnacion are three exceptions that come readily to mind.

Guys that do repeatedly heat up after the break are

Jeff Bagwell
Miguel Tejada
Eric Chavez
Kelvin Escobar


Only a small list though isn't it?
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