Big Pimpin wrote: It's not that I totally disagree, but you're talking about a kid who they are saying is legitimate competition for Strasburg as "best amateur prospect." Playing it off like he's "just some phenom" is borderline ridiculous. I mean you could say the same thing about the high school guys they're saying he's better than (Griffey, ARod, little Upton) and those guys seem to have turned out ok. I guess the jury is still out on Upton but it looks promising.
It's completely true that he may turn out to be the next Griffey or ARod. However, at the moment, he's only 16 and hasn't actually been tested. Until last year (or 2 years ago?), no one had heard of Strasburg either. He proved himself against a considerable step up from where this kid is, which was by playing high-end college ball. This kid's not even allowed into most Proms. The level of competition he's proven himself against so far isn't comparable to the level of competition Strasburg has seen. Thus:
We'll see how he does in 2 years.
People aren't just looking at numbers. Size, athleticism, speed, 96MPH, does any of that have to do with competition?
Baserunning, control, other pitches, batting eye, drug testing. Does he put that 96MPH fastball at hitters' knees? Does he have another pitch that's capable of getting out hitters who can hit 96MPH? Can he hit 90+MPH? Can he pick up spin? Can he read a pickoff move? Can he get a jump? Does he get drug tested in HS?
Those are all things that won't matter in HS because he doesn't need them. You don't need to be able to hit 93-94MPH unless you're playing against top notch HS competition. You don't need another pitch if your competition can't hit your fastball. You don't need to worry about leaving it belt high. You don't need to worry about picking up a curve. You don't need to be able to get a real jump against crappy HS catchers. You don't necessarily get drug tested in HS (private schools almost assuredly don't, few public schools do, depending on state). Thus:
Scott Boras is his "personal adviser". At 16. His skills & build are being compared to Griffey & A-Rod. I think that tells us he's doing more than just beating up on HS kids. He's got a few years to go, but I'd bet (barring injury in JC), this kid sees the majors and a $30M contract before he's 20.
iltat wrote:Baserunning, control, other pitches, batting eye, drug testing. Does he put that 96MPH fastball at hitters' knees? Does he have another pitch that's capable of getting out hitters who can hit 96MPH? Can he hit 90+MPH? Can he pick up spin? Can he read a pickoff move? Can he get a jump? Does he get drug tested in HS?
Those are all things that won't matter in HS because he doesn't need them. You don't need to be able to hit 93-94MPH unless you're playing against top notch HS competition. You don't need another pitch if your competition can't hit your fastball. You don't need to worry about leaving it belt high. You don't need to worry about picking up a curve. You don't need to be able to get a real jump against crappy HS catchers. You don't necessarily get drug tested in HS (private schools almost assuredly don't, few public schools do, depending on state). Thus:
We'll see how he does in 2 years.
I just don't see how any of that changes when he is a senior as opposed to a sophomore. If the tools are already there, they're already there. It seems like you're saying that HS players can't be viewed as being that good because they haven't "proven it" against top-notch competition, and I think that is wrong.
Besides, if he gets his GED this summer and goes to JC next year, he'll probably be in AA in two years anyway.
This kid as an absolute monster, whether or not he becomes a superstar will depend solely on how he mentally handles eeeeeverything that's sure to come from here on....
iltat wrote:Baserunning, control, other pitches, batting eye, drug testing. Does he put that 96MPH fastball at hitters' knees? Does he have another pitch that's capable of getting out hitters who can hit 96MPH? Can he hit 90+MPH? Can he pick up spin? Can he read a pickoff move? Can he get a jump? Does he get drug tested in HS?
Those are all things that won't matter in HS because he doesn't need them. You don't need to be able to hit 93-94MPH unless you're playing against top notch HS competition. You don't need another pitch if your competition can't hit your fastball. You don't need to worry about leaving it belt high. You don't need to worry about picking up a curve. You don't need to be able to get a real jump against crappy HS catchers. You don't necessarily get drug tested in HS (private schools almost assuredly don't, few public schools do, depending on state). Thus:
We'll see how he does in 2 years.
I just don't see how any of that changes when he is a senior as opposed to a sophomore. If the tools are already there, they're already there. It seems like you're saying that HS players can't be viewed as being that good because they haven't "proven it" against top-notch competition, and I think that is wrong.
Besides, if he gets his GED this summer and goes to JC next year, he'll probably be in AA in two years anyway.
I don't think he'll hit juco until after his junior year (so, a year from now). Getting his GED after sophomore year would be pretty tough while also maintaining a level of skills like he has. Thus, in 2 years, he'll have 1 year of juco ball under his belt and we'll know how he'll handle slightly better competition (though, personally, I wouldn't be surprised if he goes to a lower-tier juco just to pad stats).
If he doesn't go to juco and finishes out his high school career, by the time he's a senior, he will have been in the spotlight for 2 years. In that time, he'll play summer squads, winter squads, something against higher end competition, which will give everyone a better idea of how he can handle himself against the next level. Either way, I think that in 2 years time, we will know what the kid can really do.
iltat wrote:I don't think he'll hit juco until after his junior year (so, a year from now). Getting his GED after sophomore year would be pretty tough while also maintaining a level of skills like he has. Thus, in 2 years, he'll have 1 year of juco ball under his belt and we'll know how he'll handle slightly better competition (though, personally, I wouldn't be surprised if he goes to a lower-tier juco just to pad stats).
If he doesn't go to juco and finishes out his high school career, by the time he's a senior, he will have been in the spotlight for 2 years. In that time, he'll play summer squads, winter squads, something against higher end competition, which will give everyone a better idea of how he can handle himself against the next level. Either way, I think that in 2 years time, we will know what the kid can really do.
The SI articles says GED this summer, JUCO next year, presumptive #1 pick in 2010 draft. Of course they have to go through with it, but it's certainly possible.
I think he has shown scouts what they need to know for him to be a high first round pick... he has the physical attributes. Sure he'll have his share of growing pains, and things to learn against tougher competition, but the fact is, he's showing insanely high level raw attributes. Think about the fact every year toolsy raw players with little baseball experience get drafted, the first guy that comes to mind for me, being a Giants fan, is Wendell Fairley. He proved little to anything except that he was very raw and he had projectable power and speed, and he went in the late first round with less experience then Bryce will have.
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by iltat » Thu Jun 04, 2009 4:20 pm 
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