I realize this gets asked ALL the time here, and I am not posting for specific advice on how/whom to target in a punt. I punted in my main league last year, but way too late. (Fell one point short, another week and it would have worked.)
MY question is how does everyone evaluate when to pull the trigger? MY unscientific answer is that I get a feel for what would be brought in, versus the hassle and cost of bringing closers in. (Obvious) I also keep an idea of using the closers to hurt others in the standings. That said ...
I have two closers, 10 team league. The two leaders are tied with 44 saves, then it goes 43, 40, 39, 37, 36, 35, 24, 22. I have 24. The top five or so teams probably all think they are in it, so wouldn't trade away. My thinking is prying some away will cost too much to be worth it, and if I punt, I lose one point max.
On the other hand, a lot can change, and I have a few speculative guys like calero, madson, wuertz, bj ryan, ramon ramirez. If injuries hit or trades, I MIGHT luck in.
In other words, without getting into specifics and violating the spirit of this forum, what perspective would you guys look at this from:
Too early to punt
Punt now before someone else does, maximizing what I get back and the length of time that talent is on my roster?
I am in a 10 team league where I was at 35 points and 9th place to start the weak and I haven't really considered punting yet but I'm not in a keeper league so I guess punting would just be giving up. Plus the only reason I'm that low is because of an invalid lineup last week that cost me 40 points in the standings.
The reason I bring it up is that 1 single lost week is 40 points in the standings so I'd have to assume that one extremely hot week has to be worth a good 15 points still. It is still relatively early in the season.
Yea I know that as well, I guess my debate is simple math if everyone ahead of me is bunched and has more closers than I do -- is it philosphically worth it to give them something to differentiate themselves (positive) rather than try and take one away, which is perceived as a negative?
I can't make up my mind. my interim plan is to see if any come around in the break, but two teams always hawk the wire before I can.
I normally don't look at it until the All-Star break. I'm assuming most of the teams ahead of you are running 3 closers so if you can't add another one there is next to no chance of catching them. I might talk to the team in last place in saves and see if you can't swing a deal.
Pogotheostrich wrote:I normally don't look at it until the All-Star break. I'm assuming most of the teams ahead of you are running 3 closers so if you can't add another one there is next to no chance of catching them. I might talk to the team in last place in saves and see if you can't swing a deal.
the ones at the top are swinging four. I haven't counted it all out yet, but I definitely have less than the majority. And it feels like pulling teeth to get one to budge. I guess strategically, I am wondering when to do it -- as I think trading a touch ahead of the curve can be advantageous. And do you take less on the return to strategically place the closers, or maximize value to me? The net points are really all that matters.
The top three teams have 5, 4, 4 respectively. 4th team has three because of a trade, and was sniffing at mine. Then others have the lead, and the leg up on the "kind of closers" whereas I simply have two solid ones and the mr listed above.
How would the decision TO punt be evaluated without the specifics of how to improve? If so, do you blow over one guy and give said team both closers, or spread them out? Last year I spread it around (I HAD to punt, I lost three closers to injury, traded for two more, and still started to get creamed) to the teams vying with each other, and it made the last person to trade desperate.
Why don't you try shopping your closers around now. Start offering trades to teams that could use another closer. Make trade offers so that they would be clearly over paying for saves. If you get a really good deal pull the trigger. If you don't keep working at it to see what you can bring in.
I wouldn't expect teams to be all that desperate for saves just yet. It is still fairly early in the season. As well as Tampa Bay doesn't have a full time closer just yet. Along with the bunches of closers on the DL or who have just recently lost there jobs. Soria, Valverde, Devine, Morrow, Ryan. A lot can happen at the closer position.
Who are your current closers by the way?... A lot would depend on that as well. It is too early to think you couldn't gain a few points in saves. Especially if BJ Ryan reclaims his role. If it was me I'd want a big bat in return for a mediocre closer. Otherwise I'd hold off a couple more weeks.
It is really hard to say. Last year I was in a similar postition and waited until the team below me traded saves. I still kept my point and his trade made other teams nervous about losing points in saves so I was still able to pull off a trade.
haha, I am totally guilty of skimming the initial post and responding here. I would never punt saves unless it reaches the point where it is obvious that you won't lose any points by doing it and you aren't there yet. With only a 10 save deficit it only takes 1 injury somewhere with you picking up a closer to put you right back in the running for more points.