Are Betting Lines Useful For Picking Starting Pitchers?

[Dan Lambskin]

There's a reason the house always wins.

because they take a percentage of your winnings and try to set the line so that they get 50% of the money on each side

[rjforlife]

Todays possible adds as favorites(again note some of these guys are borderline available but I am erring on the side of assuming people are NOT taken):


Sonnanstine(TB) -165 vs. Davies(KC)

Kawakami(ATL) -118 vs. Wells(CHC)

Wolf(LAD) -125 vs. Haren(ARI)

Parra(MIL) -115 Sanchez(FLA)

Colon(CHW)-140 vs. Mazzaro(Oak)

Thompson(Stl) -122 vs Arroyo(Cin)

Only 1 big favorite, 1 solid favorite and some close ones. Lets see how it turns out

4-2 yesterday with 2 wild wild wins with LA and ATL, neither of which did the starter win the game. Your added game was Ubaldo who pitched ok but did not factor in a loss. Will post todays lines/possible adds a little later once the lines balance out as there are no games for 5 hours anyways

[Snakes Gould]

It should also be noted that the Total Run Line is just as, if not more, important than whether somebody is a favorite or not. It's not just the Money Line. It's the Money Line compared to what should be expected given opponent, track record, recent trends, home/road, etc. The same goes for the TRLs.

100 % agree. i definitely use the lines are a deciding factor, but to be honest, betting lines only dictate the likelihood of a win, not necessarily pitching performance.

[bigh0rt]

It should also be noted that the Total Run Line is just as, if not more, important than whether somebody is a favorite or not. It's not just the Money Line. It's the Money Line compared to what should be expected given opponent, track record, recent trends, home/road, etc. The same goes for the TRLs.

100 % agree. i definitely use the lines are a deciding factor, but to be honest, betting lines only dictate the likelihood of a win, not necessarily pitching performance.

This is true, but extrapolating that information can be very useful. My picks for tomorrow are Tallet and Zimmermann/Detwiler, and a big reason is what Vegas is saying about them without saying it. -120 juice on U 8.5 as an opening line without betters skewing it is low, pairing it with Detwiler being a pick 'em against Matt Cain, and it stands to reason for those to be that way, they're expecting him to pitch pretty well.

[TomBrooklyn]

The following line for tomorrow's Yankee-Met game looks a little suspect to me.

Mets (Nieve) +188
Yanks (Petitte) -204

Does anybody think the Yankees are that much of a true favorite to beat the Mets, or is the line skewed because there are so many more Yankee fans than Met fans betting on their team in this inner-city rivalry?

[daullaz]

The line is probably skewed due to the Mets finding new and inventive ways to lose games.

[bigh0rt]

The following line for tomorrow's Yankee-Met game looks a little suspect to me.

Mets (Nieve) +188
Yanks (Petitte) -204

Does anybody think the Yankees are that much of a true favorite to beat the Mets, or is the line skewed because there are so many more Yankee fans than Met fans betting on their team in this inner-city rivalry?

The Yankees are a near or greater than -200 money line favorite almost every single day. A bizarre statistical outlier that's almost never worth betting on.

[xeifrank]

Yes! I use the "money line" in determining whether or not to use a starter when I am afforded the luxury of not having to start every pitcher. I think the biggest usage comes from H2H leagues, where you can stream pitchers in and out of the lineup.

vr, Xei

[smoovethug]

I use betting lines for lucky ladders, although I browse them occasionally when spot starting. I'd think that looking at the 5 inning lines would be better as they would be based more on the starter's performance.

[rjforlife]

I use betting lines for lucky ladders, although I browse them occasionally when spot starting. I'd think that looking at the 5 inning lines would be better as they would be based more on the starter's performance.

5 Inning lines are rarely more than 5 cents different than the game lines and generally about 2 cents more to the favorite. If they were more skewed to the starter I would agree but its about getting wins I think and as such the bullpen and innings 6-9 do have to be factored in.