Are Betting Lines Useful For Picking Starting Pitchers? - Fantasy Baseball Cafe 2014 Fantasy Baseball Cafe
100% Deposit Bonus for Cafe Members!

Return to Baseball Leftovers

Are Betting Lines Useful For Picking Starting Pitchers?

Moderator: Baseball Moderators

Are Betting Lines Useful For Picking Starting Pitchers?

Postby TomBrooklyn » Tue Jun 02, 2009 11:02 am

Are sports betting lines of any use when trying to decide what starting pitchers to use in Fantasy, particularly for spot starts?
TomBrooklyn Beginner
College Coach
College Coach


Posts: 346
Joined: 13 May 2008
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Brooklyn, NY

Re: Are Betting Lines Useful For Picking Starting Pitchers?

Postby Grounded Polo » Tue Jun 02, 2009 11:11 am

I don't think anyone goes that far with spot starting. It's strictly seeing if the pitcher is facing either a bad team or a team they have always succeeded against and then how that pitcher has been faring recently and/or previously against that team.

For example, Moyer has been terrible so far but was worth spot starting because he faced Washington and he turned in a nice start.
Grounded Polo
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicFantasy ExpertCafe WriterCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterEagle EyeLucky Ladders Weekly Winner
Posts: 6584
(Past Year: 11)
Joined: 11 Aug 2007
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: Are Betting Lines Useful For Picking Starting Pitchers?

Postby bigwords » Tue Jun 02, 2009 11:12 am

I don't know the answer to this question, but I think it's an excellent one. Oddsmakers are renowned for having access to all sorts of information that we don't always see — who is umpiring the first game of a series, for example—so it might make sense that betting lines could reflect something useful. In addition, if betting lines move in accordance with how lots of people bet, there's something to be said for the Wisdom of Crowds.

I haven't seen any studies about the correlation between betting lines and starting pitcher wins, but I think it would make a fascinating one.
***
Fantasy Ball Junkie
We've Got Your Fix
www.fantasyballjunkie.com
bigwords
Major League Manager
Major League Manager


Posts: 1026
Joined: 7 Jun 2006
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: Are Betting Lines Useful For Picking Starting Pitchers?

Postby rjforlife » Tue Jun 02, 2009 11:26 am

I think its a poor utility. I mean, just over the past couple of days(please note W-L only applies to the team, not the pitcher):

From Sunday:

Millwood -154 Loser

Moyer -132 Winner

DeLaRosa -140 Loser

Marshall -134 Loser

Hughes -122 Loser

Maholm -130 Loser

Maine/Gallardo/Lester/Jackson/E. Santana all won as favorites but likely unavailable.

Wainwright/Scherzer/Garza/Greinke/ all lost and as big favorites.

Possible adds 1-5 as favorites.

Already owned 5-4 as favorites

Monday:

Kuroda -174 Loser

Washburn -124 Loser

Hernandez -112 Loser

Blanton -117 Winner

Miller -112 Winner

Wellemeyer -113 Loser

Possible adds 2-4 as favorites.

Already owned 3-0 as favorites.

Oswalt/Joba/Gavin Floyd all won as favorites but I doubt they were available.


Small sample size of course but it does not seem off the top that adding favored pitchers means anything as far as streaming for wins. Love the topic though and I plan on posting for at least a week how each possible add pitcher fares as a favorite.
Goldy is King.
rjforlife
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicResponse TeamCafe WriterCafe RankerMock(ing) Drafter
Posts: 7509
(Past Year: 740)
Joined: 25 Jan 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Vegas Baby

Re: Are Betting Lines Useful For Picking Starting Pitchers?

Postby rjforlife » Tue Jun 02, 2009 11:36 am

Todays possible adds as favorites(again note some of these guys are borderline available but I am erring on the side of assuming people are NOT taken):


Sonnanstine(TB) -165 vs. Davies(KC)

Kawakami(ATL) -118 vs. Wells(CHC)

Wolf(LAD) -125 vs. Haren(ARI)

Parra(MIL) -115 Sanchez(FLA)

Colon(CHW)-140 vs. Mazzaro(Oak)

Thompson(Stl) -122 vs Arroyo(Cin)

Only 1 big favorite, 1 solid favorite and some close ones. Lets see how it turns out ;-D
Goldy is King.
rjforlife
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicResponse TeamCafe WriterCafe RankerMock(ing) Drafter
Posts: 7509
(Past Year: 740)
Joined: 25 Jan 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Vegas Baby

Re: Are Betting Lines Useful For Picking Starting Pitchers?

Postby TomBrooklyn » Tue Jun 02, 2009 12:24 pm

I can add:
Ubaldo Jimenez, Col @ Houston (Paulino) -136 (Available in 65% of ESPN leagues.)

I took that one myself plus:
Randy Wells Chc @ Atlanta (Kawakami) (a Perlick pick, but +110. Will see about going against the line with this one.)
TomBrooklyn Beginner
College Coach
College Coach


Posts: 346
Joined: 13 May 2008
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Brooklyn, NY

Re: Are Betting Lines Useful For Picking Starting Pitchers?

Postby TomBrooklyn » Tue Jun 02, 2009 12:27 pm

Hi rjforlife,

That should be an interesting survey you are undertaking. I think the main time someone might consider the betting lines are for spot starters and maybe some non-ace starters. That's what I've been taking a look at, but I haven't recorded the results. I can say in a general way I don't think it's been a particularly good indicator so far, but my sample size is very small. Mostly what I've looked for are the wire starters where the betting line has the team as a -140 favorite or better.

Sometimes I find waiver wire starters where the line is up to -160 for the game. (Like you found with Sonnanstine for todays game at -165. He's available in 39% of ESPN leagues. He's not a particularly good K pitcher though.)

I think everybody starts their aces regardless of matchups, but showing where aces lose (or get NDs because the team lost) could be useful if it shows the lines don't work even for them.

Another thing is I don't think the sportsbook lines reflect only what their experts might believe to be the actual odds of the team winning, because I think they alter the odds to attract bets to balance their books for every game. If I'm not mistaken, the sportsbooks don't particularly care who wins the game, they primarily care about balancing their books. They want the losers to equal the winners so that washes out and they break even on that, and then they collect the vig from both sides to make their money. As bigwords mentioned, this factor would reflect the "Wisdom of Crowds" however.
TomBrooklyn Beginner
College Coach
College Coach


Posts: 346
Joined: 13 May 2008
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Brooklyn, NY

Re: Are Betting Lines Useful For Picking Starting Pitchers?

Postby bigh0rt » Tue Jun 02, 2009 12:31 pm

Grounded Polo wrote:I don't think anyone goes that far with spot starting.

You think wrong sir. Vegas lines are one of the primary things I look at when determining spot starters. I include it in every single one of my blog selections (see: sig), as well.
Image
bigh0rt
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicCafe WriterGraphics ExpertMock(ing) DrafterEagle EyeInnovative MemberCafe MusketeerWeb SupporterPick 3 Weekly Winner
Posts: 24818
(Past Year: 348)
Joined: 3 Jun 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Crowding The Plate

Re: Are Betting Lines Useful For Picking Starting Pitchers?

Postby bigh0rt » Tue Jun 02, 2009 12:33 pm

It should also be noted that the Total Run Line is just as, if not more, important than whether somebody is a favorite or not. It's not just the Money Line. It's the Money Line compared to what should be expected given opponent, track record, recent trends, home/road, etc. The same goes for the TRLs.
Image
bigh0rt
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicCafe WriterGraphics ExpertMock(ing) DrafterEagle EyeInnovative MemberCafe MusketeerWeb SupporterPick 3 Weekly Winner
Posts: 24818
(Past Year: 348)
Joined: 3 Jun 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Crowding The Plate

Re: Are Betting Lines Useful For Picking Starting Pitchers?

Postby jy2003 » Tue Jun 02, 2009 12:48 pm

There's a reason the house always wins.
jy2003
Softball Supervisor
Softball Supervisor


Posts: 27
Joined: 5 Sep 2007
Home Cafe: Baseball

Next

Return to Baseball Leftovers

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 5 guests

Forums Articles & Tips Sleepers Rankings Leagues


Today's Games
Wednesday, Oct. 22
(All times are EST, weather icons show forecast for game time)

San Francisco at Kansas City
(8:07 pm)

  • Fantasy Baseball
  • Article Submissions
  • Privacy Statement
  • Site Survey 
  • Contact