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Ricky Nolasco to AAA - Throw good peripherals out the window

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Ricky Nolasco to AAA - Throw good peripherals out the window

Postby Grounded Polo » Sat May 23, 2009 2:49 pm

Is he basically David Ortiz droppable now? All of the signs seemed alright - low walks, high strikeouts, maintaining velocity etc - but that doesn't really matter when you have 8-9 starts and none of them are good. I caught some of the Nolasco carnage, his fastball looked pretty straight to me and would explain why everyone is hitting laser shots off of him. Is he even worth stashing barring very deep leagues? He was an incredible force in the second half last year after a nice first but now, every start got worse and worse.
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Re: Ricky Nolasco to AAA - Throw good peripherals out the window

Postby hybrid » Sat May 23, 2009 4:15 pm

To me he was bound to have a down year. His attrition rate due to the amount of pitches and sliders he threw was so much compared to previous years that something had to give IMO.
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Re: Ricky Nolasco to AAA - Throw good peripherals out the window

Postby Another Blown Save » Sat May 23, 2009 4:17 pm

He's been incredibly unlucky with poor fielding behind him. His FIP-ERA is -4.41 which is incredibly low.
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Re: Ricky Nolasco to AAA - Throw good peripherals out the window

Postby Grounded Polo » Sat May 23, 2009 4:30 pm

hybrid wrote:To me he was bound to have a down year. His attrition rate due to the amount of pitches and sliders he threw was so much compared to previous years that something had to give IMO.


I was expecting an injury at some point because of all the breaking balls but who would expect him just to become a pile of garbage? I drafted him on one team because my pitching was awful (ace = Felix Hernandez) so I was basically trying for hail marys. I got Verlander right but Nolasco was quite the strike out. :-P

I avoided him on all of my other teams though.
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Re: Ricky Nolasco to AAA - Throw good peripherals out the window

Postby stumpak » Sun May 24, 2009 9:23 am

How stupid by the Marlins. His terrible ERA is almost entirely BABIP driven.
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Re: Ricky Nolasco to AAA - Throw good peripherals out the window

Postby chem » Sun May 24, 2009 12:43 pm

stumpak wrote:How stupid by the Marlins. His terrible ERA is almost entirely BABIP driven.


Sometimes your BABIP is high because you just suck. He was throwing meatballs, look at the ISO against. If you look at the fangraphs PitchFX data his curve no longer has the motion it had last year. I should have dropped him two weeks ago, but I did it on Friday before the Marlins sent him to AAA.

Analysis on BABIP and FIP alone is asinine.
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Re: Ricky Nolasco to AAA - Throw good peripherals out the window

Postby Sekrah » Sun May 24, 2009 4:19 pm

Agree.. if you're leaving meatballs over the play, your line drive % are going to be up and your BABIP is going to be higher than guys throwing fastballs over the corners or with tails.

His BB/9 and HR/9 are also up. There's alot more than bad luck involved here. He hasn't been as good as he was last year, plain and simple.

The .300 BABIP / Batters have absolutely no control of basehits theory is alot of hokey-pokey.
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Re: Ricky Nolasco to AAA - Throw good peripherals out the window

Postby swyck » Mon May 25, 2009 8:15 am

Sekrah wrote:Agree.. if you're leaving meatballs over the play, your line drive % are going to be up and your BABIP is going to be higher than guys throwing fastballs over the corners or with tails.

His BB/9 and HR/9 are also up. There's alot more than bad luck involved here. He hasn't been as good as he was last year, plain and simple.

There is a survivor bias in these kinds of stats. That means not all pitchers will revert back to the .300 BABIP. Pitchers that are getting lit up and stay lit up will not last. They'll either get cut, or head for the minors. Even Adam Eatons career BABIP is only .305.

Basically it means you're not major league quality, and those stats will wash you out. Does anyone really think that if you were out there tossing lollipops from the mound that your BABIP would be .300 and your HR/FB rate would be 11%? :-b
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Re: Ricky Nolasco to AAA - Throw good peripherals out the window

Postby Philliebuster » Mon May 25, 2009 8:24 am

I've watched all of his starts, regardless of his FIP, WHIP, BABIP, any stat you want to throw out there....he deserves to be in AAA.
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Re: Ricky Nolasco to AAA - Throw good peripherals out the window

Postby RenPastana » Mon May 25, 2009 12:59 pm

I had to cut loose with Ricky, but now the 1st place team (im currently in second) used his #3 waiver on him...I've gotta say I am bit scared I might have made a bad move and helped out my worst enemy, but at the same time, I don't see Ricky going back to his old self this yr (he ruined my ERA bc I was unable to put him on my bench after being away from my comp for a while)

When you can't throw your fastballs with confidence, expected results shouldn't be too good...Also, having throw too many breaking balls only brings another opportunity for a mysterious injury to pop up. I wish nothing but the best to Ricky, but for now, keep him in the minors until next yr
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