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berkman or huff?

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Postby Guest » Mon Mar 15, 2004 1:26 am

shortsavage wrote:I am a HUGE Aubrey Huff fan! But you guys are kidding yourselves if you think he is worth more than Berkman. They are not in the same league (no pun intended :-D).

Keeper
Berkman is only a year older than Huff. Lets compare their numbers when they were both 26 (2002 for Berkman and 2003 for Huff), and let them tell the keeper story.

Berkman: 42 Hr, 106 Runs, 128 RBIs, 8 sb and a .292 BA

Huff: 34 Hr (-8), 91 Runs (-15), 107 RBIs ( -21), 2 sb (-6) and a .311 BA (+0.19)

Yearly
Berkman was an elite outfielder in an "off" year. He was better than Huff too. How could Huff have more value going into draft day?

Berkman plays for an offensively stong team in a offensive park. Huff plays in a decent offensive team in a not so offensive park. Huff is not going to improve as much from 2003 to 2004 as he did from 2002 to 2003. Berkman will likely post a better season than he did in 2003.

Talent:Talent, how could Huff be a better pick than Berkman?


How was Berkman better than Huff as an elite outfielder in an off year. Huff was significantly better than Berkman last year.
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Postby shortsavage » Mon Mar 15, 2004 1:39 am

In 98 fewer at bats, Berkman had 19 more runs, 54 more walks than Huff.

My league factors in OBP, so I was looking at a race where Berkman finished by a slight margin. However you are correct, for a typical 5x5 league Huff was better.

Nonetheless if Berkman had as many at bats as Huff in 2003, his numbers would have looked like this: 30 Hrs, 130 Runs, 109 RBIs and the batting average still would have been around .288.

I am playing the woulda, coulda, shoulda game, and injuries did keep Berkman out of the lineup on multiple occations last year. I'd imagine that these injuries had something to do with his cold spells as well.

I will refine my conclusion. When healthy, Berkman is a better hitter than Huff (especially in leagues where walks can factor in).
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Postby moochman » Mon Mar 15, 2004 1:52 am

All things being equal, take the player with the favorable stadium/division. Berkman plays in a bandbox so I would lean toward him. Close call though.
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Postby crust » Mon Mar 15, 2004 4:34 am

everyone forgets that HR's seem to be going down.. there is less and less every year..... so you should take that into account when you say Berkman had 42 a couple years ago.. because times are changing. i think he'll bounce back from last year, but i'd also say he's about equal to Huff - its not a clear-cut decision imo - flip a coin
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Postby LBJackal » Mon Mar 15, 2004 5:44 am

moochman wrote:All things being equal, take the player with the favorable stadium/division. Berkman plays in a bandbox so I would lean toward him. Close call though.


If the stats are equal, than that is already considering the park factor. Why count it twice? In a tie, I don't see any logical reason to go with the better hitter's park.

And also, I don't think I'd increase Berkman's stats because he missed some games. In the past 3 years he's played in 156, 158, 153 games. So what he did last year is basically a full season. In both players' full seasons, Huff had 9 more HR, 14 more RBI, 19 less R, 23 more BA points, 3 less steals. Huff's 2002 season, projected over a full year was also comparable to Berkman's last year and that was without Crawford and Baldelli, so it wasn't a fluke last year. The same can't be said for Berkman, who's been very erratic. 2001 he had a great average, 2002 he had great power, 2003 he didn't have a great HR or BA. The only thing that's consistent with him is his runs scored and 5-8 SB's. Sure, if he goes back to his 2002 numbers, he'll be more valuable. But Berkman only had an advantage in one category last year: runs. Huff had a significant advantage in HR, RBI and BA. Berkman's OPS has dropped the past 2 years, while Huff's has risen each of the past 2 years.

I couldn't fault anybody for taking either of these guys over the other one. Huff based on his potential to improve and his consistency he's shown, and Berkman because he's had a great season and has a possibility of doing it again. I'd go with Huff though. I like players on upward trends as opposed to downward ones.

And to the person who said Huff is the greatest player to grace the Devil Rays' lineup, you're forgetting their Hall of Famer: Wade Boggs :-D
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