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which 1b?? Lars or Kila?

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Re: which 1b?? Lars or Kila?

Postby Steve-o » Fri May 22, 2009 10:57 pm

Bobbleheadrusty wrote:Over his time, this year and last at AA ball.. (compiled by someone other then me)

75 games, 266 at-bats, 46 runs, 74 hits, 22 doubles, 0 triples, 10 homers, 53 RBI, 49 walks, 75 strikeouts, 1 steal in 1 attempt, .278/.387/.474

That doesn't scream "Proved it" to me.


It does when you consider that he was 2-4 years younger than everyone else in his league.
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Re: which 1b?? Lars or Kila?

Postby nate128 » Sat May 23, 2009 9:03 am

Does a .314 avg, 37 HR, 100 RBI, 104 BB and 67 K with a 1.085 OPS mean nothing to anyone?
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Re: which 1b?? Lars or Kila?

Postby DevilDriver » Sat May 23, 2009 9:28 am

nate128 wrote:Does a .314 avg, 37 HR, 100 RBI, 104 BB and 67 K with a 1.085 OPS mean nothing to anyone?

When evaluating prospects, scouting and age vs. level are just as important as stats. Let's say Lars gets placed in AA when he's 24 years old: the numbers he'd put up, in all likelihood, would be better than those of Kila's '08.
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Re: which 1b?? Lars or Kila?

Postby thedude » Sun May 24, 2009 11:44 am

Bobbleheadrusty wrote:
Amatter32 wrote:
nate128 wrote:"Lars without hesitation" i'd question..... Don't always buy into the hype machines of Boston and New York.


I don't think that has anything to do with it. His numbers last year spoke for it.



Over his time, this year and last at AA ball.. (compiled by someone other then me)

75 games, 266 at-bats, 46 runs, 74 hits, 22 doubles, 0 triples, 10 homers, 53 RBI, 49 walks, 75 strikeouts, 1 steal in 1 attempt, .278/.387/.474

That doesn't scream "Proved it" to me.


Anderson got off to a slow start year too and then turned it own. It isn't all about numbers with prospects.
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Re: which 1b?? Lars or Kila?

Postby FouLLine » Tue Jun 02, 2009 1:10 pm

DevilDriver wrote:
nate128 wrote:Does a .314 avg, 37 HR, 100 RBI, 104 BB and 67 K with a 1.085 OPS mean nothing to anyone?

When evaluating prospects, scouting and age vs. level are just as important as stats. Let's say Lars gets placed in AA when he's 24 years old: the numbers he'd put up, in all likelihood, would be better than those of Kila's '08.


In all likelihood you cannot assume ANY prospect is going to put up the type of numbers Kila Ka'aihue did at Double A. Or the numbers he put up at Triple A in the same year. He OPSed well over 1.000 at both levels and slugged over .620 at both levels as well. Not to mention how awesome his plate discipline was last year as well. It was a monster year a break out year.

Kila has regressed some what this year. He is currently OPSing .956 in AAA which is still darn good.

Either way this is a pretty close comparison. I see a lot of "Lars is much better with out question". When there is clearly a question. Lars Anderson is still a prospect yes he may have a higher ceiling than Kila but Kila has come to closer to his potential with showing extreme success in AA and AAA as well as being solid at the major league level. Lars Anderson is still 3 years younger but he is struggling at AA right now, there is no known baseball law that says all highly rated prospects turn out. Kila is closer to the bigs and closer to his full potential while Lars has a longer way to go. Lars is a riskier pick, Kila is a safer pick.
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Re: which 1b?? Lars or Kila?

Postby DevilDriver » Wed Jun 03, 2009 7:43 pm

FouLLine wrote:
DevilDriver wrote:
nate128 wrote:Does a .314 avg, 37 HR, 100 RBI, 104 BB and 67 K with a 1.085 OPS mean nothing to anyone?

When evaluating prospects, scouting and age vs. level are just as important as stats. Let's say Lars gets placed in AA when he's 24 years old: the numbers he'd put up, in all likelihood, would be better than those of Kila's '08.


In all likelihood you cannot assume ANY prospect is going to put up the type of numbers Kila Ka'aihue did at Double A.


When that prospect has Lars' talent and will be 4 years removed from his first taste of AA, yes I can. What do you think would happen if say Billy Butler, who first saw AA in 2005, was sent back down right now? His OPS would easily be ~1.000. Kila had great numbers, but Lars will almost certainly be capable of that kind of AA production in 2012.
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Re: which 1b?? Lars or Kila?

Postby FouLLine » Sat Jun 06, 2009 9:28 am

You are assuming far too much here. You can't say someone would easily OPS 1.000, let alone have a .640 slugging percentage. Guys get demoted all the time let alone rehab assignments and they don't come close to OPSing 1.000 in the minors.

If Kila had 1 less K in his 2008 AA numbers he would have had a 2/1 BB/K ratio. That is insane let alone factor in a .600+ slugging. Keep in mind Kila maintained those ratios in AAA.

Billy Butler is a whole different scenario. He was in the bigs when Lars Anderson was getting his first taste of pro ball. Yet Billy Butler is only a year and a half older. Also Butler got a demotion to AAA last year and he didn't OPS 1.000 and wasn't close to a .640 slugging percentage. You have to figure that luck and just overall being at the top of your game was factored into that type of a monster season. That was Kila's break out season, he was a late bloomer as far as prospects go. Similar to Geovany Soto or an even better comparison would be Travis Hafner. Granted Kila has yet to get much big league time.

I'm not arguing that Lars doesn't have a higher cieling. I'm just saying Kila is more of an actualized player, closer to his potential and closer to the bigs. There's still more of a chance Lars doesn't pan out or end up being the player he was once pegged to be.
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Re: which 1b?? Lars or Kila?

Postby mblax10 » Sat Jun 06, 2009 10:08 am

FouLLine wrote:You are assuming far too much here. You can't say someone would easily OPS 1.000, let alone have a .640 slugging percentage. Guys get demoted all the time let alone rehab assignments and they don't come close to OPSing 1.000 in the minors.

If Kila had 1 less K in his 2008 AA numbers he would have had a 2/1 BB/K ratio. That is insane let alone factor in a .600+ slugging. Keep in mind Kila maintained those ratios in AAA.

Billy Butler is a whole different scenario. He was in the bigs when Lars Anderson was getting his first taste of pro ball. Yet Billy Butler is only a year and a half older. Also Butler got a demotion to AAA last year and he didn't OPS 1.000 and wasn't close to a .640 slugging percentage. You have to figure that luck and just overall being at the top of your game was factored into that type of a monster season. That was Kila's break out season, he was a late bloomer as far as prospects go. Similar to Geovany Soto or an even better comparison would be Travis Hafner. Granted Kila has yet to get much big league time.

I'm not arguing that Lars doesn't have a higher cieling. I'm just saying Kila is more of an actualized player, closer to his potential and closer to the bigs. There's still more of a chance Lars doesn't pan out or end up being the player he was once pegged to be.


The reason guys don't always OPS 1.000 in rehab/demotion cases is the same reason they were rehabbing/demoted in the first place.

You can argue Lars is closer to the majors since he isn't blocked by Butler, Jacobs, Shealy, etc. As soon as Lars is ready, there's a warm spot at 1B/DH in Boston waiting for him.

If you can't understand the difference between a 20 year old putting up huge numbers in AA and a 24 year old finally reaching AAA and mashing after 2.5 seasons in AA, than just give up on analyzing prospects.
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Re: which 1b?? Lars or Kila?

Postby FouLLine » Sat Jun 06, 2009 10:36 am

mblax10 wrote:
The reason guys don't always OPS 1.000 in rehab/demotion cases is the same reason they were rehabbing/demoted in the first place.

You can argue Lars is closer to the majors since he isn't blocked by Butler, Jacobs, Shealy, etc. As soon as Lars is ready, there's a warm spot at 1B/DH in Boston waiting for him.

If you can't understand the difference between a 20 year old putting up huge numbers in AA and a 24 year old finally reaching AAA and mashing after 2.5 seasons in AA, than just give up on analyzing prospects.


Lars Anderson's AA numbers were nowhere near Kila's last year. As well as the fact that Lars' were over a much smaller sample size. I'm not going to bother figuring his BABIP but I'll tell you it was extremely high last year. As you can see by the regression in his numbers even though he has improved his contact rate this year, he was damn lucky last year. Kila's numbers in AAA are down some but they are still very good. Kila has the skillset and maturity for an easy transition into the majors. Lars is at best a year and a September call up (more than likely 2+ years) away from rookie struggles in the majors.

Shealy is not blocking Kila, at all. Jacobs and Butler are both on one year deals. So this means a few things. Jacobs or Kila more than likely get traded at the trade deadline or Jacobs just does not get resigned at the end of the year. Lars is still a ways from the MLB. Yeah he could probably be rushed, but I would hope he isn't for his sake. Check out Daric Barton very similar case scenario Billy Beane rarely miss handles a prospect but Barton has been set back badly from the way Oakland handled him.
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Re: which 1b?? Lars or Kila?

Postby mblax10 » Sat Jun 06, 2009 11:20 am

FouLLine wrote:
mblax10 wrote:
The reason guys don't always OPS 1.000 in rehab/demotion cases is the same reason they were rehabbing/demoted in the first place.

You can argue Lars is closer to the majors since he isn't blocked by Butler, Jacobs, Shealy, etc. As soon as Lars is ready, there's a warm spot at 1B/DH in Boston waiting for him.

If you can't understand the difference between a 20 year old putting up huge numbers in AA and a 24 year old finally reaching AAA and mashing after 2.5 seasons in AA, than just give up on analyzing prospects.


Lars Anderson's AA numbers were nowhere near Kila's last year. As well as the fact that Lars' were over a much smaller sample size. I'm not going to bother figuring his BABIP but I'll tell you it was extremely high last year. As you can see by the regression in his numbers even though he has improved his contact rate this year, he was damn lucky last year. Kila's numbers in AAA are down some but they are still very good. Kila has the skillset and maturity for an easy transition into the majors. Lars is at best a year and a September call up (more than likely 2+ years) away from rookie struggles in the majors.

Shealy is not blocking Kila, at all. Jacobs and Butler are both on one year deals. So this means a few things. Jacobs or Kila more than likely get traded at the trade deadline or Jacobs just does not get resigned at the end of the year. Lars is still a ways from the MLB. Yeah he could probably be rushed, but I would hope he isn't for his sake. Check out Daric Barton very similar case scenario Billy Beane rarely miss handles a prospect but Barton has been set back badly from the way Oakland handled him.


ZOMG-One guy who was rushed sucked when he got to the majors. How about Justin Upton, Joe Mauer, Gary Sheffield, etc. There are numerous examples of guys failing or succeeding after being rushed. Similarly, there are numerous guys who have failed or succeeded after spending too much time in the minors. Why? Tons of guys try and make the majors and many fail.

Last year Kila was 24, Lars was 20. Until you understand what that means, just give up. I'm also curious how you quantify "skillset and maturity for an easy transition into the majors."

BABIP with no history is a very poor choice of stat to try and deduce a hitter being lucky.

Butler is under Royals control for 4 more seasons. He may not even be arb eligible after this season depending on what the Super 2 cutoff is. Jacobs has 2 more arb seasons with the Royals. These 2 are blocking Kila. There's no reason to think Lars won't compete for a DH/1B spot to open 2010.
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