2009 MILB Cafe Draft- In Progress

[Big Pimpin]

With the first pick in the 2009 MLB draft
The Seattle Mariners select: Alex White RHP, UNC

Rationale- There is no sure fire 2nd pick in this draft and a lot of what I'm reading has Ackley going 2nd but I wouldn't want to risk that injury and I don't think he will make in as a 1B which is where the Mariners are weak in the minors. White has a fastball with movement and can reach 95 mph, he has a plus slider he is confident in, a curve he can throw for strikes, an average changeup that will need to improve and his best pitch is a hard spilter. He has also been said to have a different type of sinker. That's 6 pitches and if he can improve his changeup fast he could be up in the bigs sooner rather then later.

Future Plans- If he can develop his change along faster he will have a much quicker route to the big league club. If I had to bet I'd say he will play rookie ball this season, start 2010 at A or A+ move up to AA and either have him finish the season there or have him come up as a September call up. Then 2011 he should either start on the big club or be down in AAA for the first few months of the season.

Man I hope you are wrong. I don't like the 1B argument because you should never draft for "need" since by the time a kid is ready you have no idea what your need really will be. Besides, the M's actually are set at 1B with Carp at AAA and Clement no longer thought of as a C. Ackley will be plus CF and as a hitter he's perfectly tailored to Safeco. I'm going to be pissed if it's anyone besides Ackley that gets the nod.

[mac-unit]

With the first pick in the 2009 MLB draft
The Seattle Mariners select: Alex White RHP, UNC

Rationale- There is no sure fire 2nd pick in this draft and a lot of what I'm reading has Ackley going 2nd but I wouldn't want to risk that injury and I don't think he will make in as a 1B which is where the Mariners are weak in the minors. White has a fastball with movement and can reach 95 mph, he has a plus slider he is confident in, a curve he can throw for strikes, an average changeup that will need to improve and his best pitch is a hard spilter. He has also been said to have a different type of sinker. That's 6 pitches and if he can improve his changeup fast he could be up in the bigs sooner rather then later.

Future Plans- If he can develop his change along faster he will have a much quicker route to the big league club. If I had to bet I'd say he will play rookie ball this season, start 2010 at A or A+ move up to AA and either have him finish the season there or have him come up as a September call up. Then 2011 he should either start on the big club or be down in AAA for the first few months of the season.

Man I hope you are wrong. I don't like the 1B argument because you should never draft for "need" since by the time a kid is ready you have no idea what your need really will be. Besides, the M's actually are set at 1B with Carp at AAA and Clement no longer thought of as a C. Ackley will be plus CF and as a hitter he's perfectly tailored to Safeco. I'm going to be pissed if it's anyone besides Ackley that gets the nod.

He still hasn't shown anything for scouts in center since he had the Tommy John surgery. His arm was ok at best before the surgery and this year he will be limited to first maybe even to start next season. Plus centerfield is probably the Mariners biggest organizational strength. You may not want to draft to need but when the kid is stuck in A ball because there's no spot for him in higher levels it is a problem.

[Big Pimpin]

He still hasn't shown anything for scouts in center since he had the Tommy John surgery. His arm was ok at best before the surgery and this year he will be limited to first maybe even to start next season. Plus centerfield is probably the Mariners biggest organizational strength. You may not want to draft to need but when the kid is stuck in A ball because there's no spot for him in higher levels it is a problem.

Given the success rate of Tommy John, I don't think it's fair to assume that his arm is going to take a hit. Even if it comes back average (lots of guys have come back throwing harder), range is much more important than arm when evaluating an OF. I think corner OF is maybe the biggest organizational strength (and relief pitching ), but there's not a legit defensive centerfielder in the system. I would be very surprised if either Saunders or Halman managed to stick in center. I really don't see a single player in the system that would hold him up.

I really don't see any reason at all to take position into account in an MLB draft. The future is so unknown that you should always go BPA. If down the road you find yourself with a glut at some position, you just do some shuffling with another team.

Anyway... I still say Ackley will be the pick. And he'll be the best pick.

[Havok1517]

He still hasn't shown anything for scouts in center since he had the Tommy John surgery. His arm was ok at best before the surgery and this year he will be limited to first maybe even to start next season. Plus centerfield is probably the Mariners biggest organizational strength. You may not want to draft to need but when the kid is stuck in A ball because there's no spot for him in higher levels it is a problem.

Given the success rate of Tommy John, I don't think it's fair to assume that his arm is going to take a hit. Even if it comes back average (lots of guys have come back throwing harder), range is much more important than arm when evaluating an OF. I think corner OF is maybe the biggest organizational strength (and relief pitching ), but there's not a legit defensive centerfielder in the system. I would be very surprised if either Saunders or Halman managed to stick in center. I really don't see a single player in the system that would hold him up.

I really don't see any reason at all to take position into account in an MLB draft. The future is so unknown that you should always go BPA. If down the road you find yourself with a glut at some position, you just do some shuffling with another team.

Anyway... I still say Ackley will be the pick. And he'll be the best pick.

Yeah, I agree. I think Ackley will be the pick though I could see Donovan Tate as a possibility if his bonus issues aren't too bad. Ackley is safer with some good upside while Tate is riskier with a ton of upside. I just think they have to two pick 1 of the 2.

[thomasps3]

With the third pick in the 2009 MLB draft
San Diego Padres select: Dustin Ackley, OF/1b, UNC

Rationale: Surprised by Seattle's reluctance to take the sweet swinging Ackley. He is the best pure hitter in the draft, and this past year has quelled the fears of scouts about his power, as he had hit 19 HR at last count. He profiles as a premium defender in CF with his speed rating a 70 on the 20-80 scout scale. Ackley has the unique ability to square the balk on the barrel of the bat, and it has resulted in three straight years of .400 average. If he only ends up as a 1b, he will still be a unique player that doesn't have solid comps because of his speed and his ability to make solid contact.

[mac-unit]

With the 4th pick of the 2009 MLB draft
Pittsburgh Pirates select: Aaron Crow RHP, Fort Worth Cats

Rationale- There was report the Pirates have been looking closely at 3 pitchers and Crow was one of them. Unlike a year ago his changeup is now a major league type change so outside of Strasburg he could have the quickest route to the majors which I think makes the Pirates take him since they need some help at starting pitching throughout their entire organization.

[mac-unit]

He still hasn't shown anything for scouts in center since he had the Tommy John surgery. His arm was ok at best before the surgery and this year he will be limited to first maybe even to start next season. Plus centerfield is probably the Mariners biggest organizational strength. You may not want to draft to need but when the kid is stuck in A ball because there's no spot for him in higher levels it is a problem.

Given the success rate of Tommy John, I don't think it's fair to assume that his arm is going to take a hit. Even if it comes back average (lots of guys have come back throwing harder), range is much more important than arm when evaluating an OF. I think corner OF is maybe the biggest organizational strength (and relief pitching ), but there's not a legit defensive centerfielder in the system. I would be very surprised if either Saunders or Halman managed to stick in center. I really don't see a single player in the system that would hold him up.

I really don't see any reason at all to take position into account in an MLB draft. The future is so unknown that you should always go BPA. If down the road you find yourself with a glut at some position, you just do some shuffling with another team.

Anyway... I still say Ackley will be the pick. And he'll be the best pick.

I made the pick without looking at mocks. But I just looked at a few and there were people who made the same pick as me who get paid so I'm not insane with the pick. It may be a little irrational but I'd rather go with the safer pick over an outfielder who has a chance to have a career filled with arm injuries and I don't think he has the pop in his bat to last at 1B.

[Steve-o]

With the 5th pick in the draft, the Baltimore Orioles select:

Kyle Gibson, Univ of Missouri
21 y.o., 6'6", 210 lb, RHP

Bonus concerns be damned. The Orioles are not afraid to spend the money (see Wieters, Matt) and the generally take the best available prospect. Tate is considered here, but I'm reading they want another arm. Plus I think Gibson's age and development path make him fit better with their core of guys looking to peak in 2-3 years than the 18 year old Tate.

Gibson has a plus slider, plus fastball in the low 90s, an average change, and excellent command. He is very projectable due to his size and control with a #2 ceiling. However, there are some scouts that see his average fastball velocity limiting to a #3 starter and others who complain about his mechanics. Gibson fits in with Tillman, Matusz, and Arrieta to build a formidable future rotation.

[thomasps3]

With the sixth pick in the 2009 MLB draft
San Francisco Giants select: Donovan Tate, OF, UNC


Rationale: The best pure athlete in the draft. Tools? He has them coming out the wazoo. Outstanding Plus plus runner, grading out as a 70 on the 20-80. He also possesses a cannon for an arm that grades out as a plus tool. He also has the ability to make in game adjustments that can only help speed his arrival to the show. Also has outstanding bloodlines, with his father Lars having been a running back for the Dallas Cowboys. The pursestrings will have to be opened wide, however, as Tate has been rumored to be seeking a signing bonus in the area of $6mm to sign him away from a two sport commitment to UNC.

[Havok1517]

With the seventh pick in the 2009 MLB draft
Atlanta Braves select: Zack Wheeler RHP, East Paulding High School (GA)

Rationale- Wheeler is a home town guy the Braves just can't help but select due to his talent the ability for the Braves to get a small discount. He's very projectable for a high schooler with his 95 mph fastball, decent secondary offerings, and size. I personally don't think he's the best pitcher available but he makes too much sense for the Braves. I personally believe that Sheppers, Brothers, and Turner are all better pitcher selections here. The only other player that would have made sense was the afore-selected Donavan Tate as the Braves are thin organizationally in premium outfielders.