I think I'll make the offer. Actually, I already offered Greinke for Santana and for Lincecum, but I seriously doubt those owners will bite. Halladay is my next choice. If I don't get Santana or Linc - and I doubt I will - then I'll go for Halladay. If I don't get HIM, I'll stand pat - there just aren't any other starters out there I'd be willing to trade Greinke for right now, though Sabathia is tempting. Yeah, he's started slow, but he played like crap for the start of 2008 as well...
I'm actually surprised at how many people are saying Greinke. I do agree that he's had an outstanding start, and will likely put up very good numbers the rest of the way. But the key word is likely. The difference with Halladay is you know 100% what you're going to get. Halladay has shown what he can do year in and year out, game in and game out.
There are some saying that Halladay and Greinke will end up with the same numbers by the end of the season. Well if that's the case, look at the math. Greinke is going to have more than a few horrible pitching lines the rest of the way given the incredible stats he has put up in ther first quarter of the season.
All that being said, I'd be shocked if the other owner accepted that offer. But I say that you've got to try it, because Greinke's name is really out there right now. But if you can pull off that deal then a big congrats, because you won't look back at that one.
I say make the move, Greinke is off to a blazing start sure, but he's not going to keep up with this pace. The more you get on the radar (and right now he's obviously the biggest blip there) the more work that gets put in by coaches and hitters when you're faced, the decline will come, be thankful you got the best 10 games, now move him for halladay and reap the benefits, not saying greinke won't be top 5-10, but from here on out with the combination of risk and reward halladay is the guy to ride.
That's a tough one. I think Greinke can match Halladay's numbers. I do think Greinke will regress some yet this year. The Royals won't score him enough runs to win, like last night. Trade him for a top hitter and an above average pitcher that will get you average whip and era with average K's.
I have to say I'm surprised that so many people are convinced enough by Grienke's start to rate him over Halladay. The key reason that so many people suggest taking hitting over pitching is that pitching is rather unpredictable. There are a few players, however, that negate that argument, and Halladay is one of them. 2006: 16-5, 3.19 ERA, 220 IP, 132 K; 2007: 16-7, 3.71 ERA, 225 IP, 139 K; 2008: 20-11, 2.78 ERA, 246 IP, 206 K. This guy was second in Cy Young voting last year, and was beaten out only by one of the most outstanding pitching campaigns in recent history. Grienke is really good, clearly, but there are some really unhealthy mancrushes going on here. Halladay is money in the bank. Let's have this argument after Grienke has proved that he can perform at an elite level for an entire season.
"This guy leads the league in most offensive categories, including nose hair..."
Greinke is better. Everyone knew Zack had elite talent, the only thing holding him back was the anxiety disorder. Now that house is in order, and he is the best AL pitcher now. I'm still concerned about strikeout upside with Halladay.
I like Halladay over Greinke, but saying that I would probably not do this deal 1 for 1.... I would ask for another player who can help you because Greinke's perceived value is huge right now - don't sell yourself short unless this is the best u can do