I'm of the mind that Greinke is a "sell high" candidate. Does Halladay sound like a good candidate to pursue? He's been awfully reliable over his career, and Greinke has to regress at some point. Thoughts?
I don't think I would do it! Halladay is a proven stud but I personally think Greinke is for real. Greinke will have some bumps along the season but so will Halladay. At the end of the year I think their numbers will be about the same.
Short answer: Halladay >> Grienke. No doubt Grienke has great stuff, and will end up with a fine season to show for his efforts, the name of the game in my mind for SP is track record. Halladay is among the most reliable aces in all of baseball; Grienke is a newcomer who turned in subpar campaigns before last year. Grienke has to show us a lot more than 7 high quality games to be listed next to guys like Halladay.
Frankly I would be surprised if the Halladay owner would go for this deal, but now is the time to offer it.
Are you kidding? Halladay's stats are everything you could hope Grienke achieves over the remainder of the year. He's one of the most sure things in baseball and now that the team is doing well (in the interim) stands to definitively reach 20 wins.
Halladay is easily greater than Grienke. I know that his hot start has some ppl putting him in the same league as guys like Roy, Tim Lincecum and Johan Santana but that is absurd. And if you can get a guy like that for Grienke then you aren't losing anything and instead are gaining someone who is more likely to sustain their pitching stats.
Here's the rub: I do believe Greinke will probably end up with better stats than Halladay, the way both of them are pitching. But he's a biggger risk. Would you rather have someone with a 55% likelihood of putting up slightly better numbers or a 45% chance of putting up much worse numbers, especially if the Royals hit a bump. The Jays lineup is better than the Royals. Give me Halladay, and the best chance I have to have one of the top 3 pitchers in the AL.
While I think Greinke has the chance to be the next 2008 Cliff Lee, I would personally take Halladay. Greinke may very well put up better numbers than Halladay this year, but at the same time his chances of coming back down to earth a little bit are just as great. Take the sure thing.
I am going against the trend, and say Greinke, the only thing that may hold him back is the lack of run support like the Angels game, he pitched a gem but the Royals couldnt hit.
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by Oatsdad » Sun May 10, 2009 11:41 am 
