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What's wrong with Lester?

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What's wrong with Lester?

Postby OnceinDC2\1 » Sat May 09, 2009 6:13 pm

All his peripherals suggest he's incredibly unlucky HR/FB%, BABIP, K/9.

What is the story here? He gave up 7 hits in a row when he came apart today....incredibly frustrating.
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Re: What's wrong with Lester?

Postby OnceinDC2\1 » Wed May 13, 2009 9:51 am

not one person had an opinion on his struggles?


*bump*
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Re: What's wrong with Lester?

Postby Curtis Pride » Wed May 13, 2009 9:57 am

Bad luck.
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Re: What's wrong with Lester?

Postby Slayer Rules » Wed May 13, 2009 10:36 am

Another overrated RedSox/Yankee. Phil Hughes in a different uniform.
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Re: What's wrong with Lester?

Postby padrino990_200 » Wed May 13, 2009 12:14 pm

did you seriously just compare him to phil hughes? has phil hughes won 16 games, has he thrown a no-hitter (i know those are overrated). has phil hughes been an ace in the playoffs?

please dont make yourself look so stupid as to compare lester to phil hughes
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Re: What's wrong with Lester?

Postby The Artful Dodger » Wed May 13, 2009 1:33 pm

Here's what I said about him a few weeks ago:

Clicky

Jon Lester - 2009 to date: 30.0 IP, 1 W, 33 K, 5.40 ERA, 1.53 WHIP

Beckett’s teammate, Jon Lester, has also struggled some, if his ERA and WHIP tell the entire story. Lester only allowed 14 home runs last season, but in 30 innings, he has already surrendered five home runs, which might be correlated with a spike in usage of his curveball. Lester is no stranger to the home run ball; prior to 2008, he yielded eight home runs in 81.1 innings in 2006 and the following year, he surrendered 10 home runs in 63 innings. There is reason to be bullish on Lester, as his fastball velocity continues to remain at the level it was during his second half and it has shown with a 9.90 K/9. Inducing more grounders will be key to avoiding the gopher ball tendencies, but it seems like it’s more of a matter of pitch selection than it is a simple regression. Now is an opportune time to target Jon Lester.


I don't think he's absolutely unlucky given his past record of giving up homeruns but he also improved last year in keeping the ball down and the velocity has been as good as it was last year. I know I'm buying.
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Re: What's wrong with Lester?

Postby padrino990_200 » Wed May 13, 2009 2:45 pm

i know i just traded for him in my league. i cant wait for him to show up so i can have a staff of

Johan Santana
Jon Lester
Ervin Santana
Zack Greinke
Josh Johnson
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Re: What's wrong with Lester?

Postby Slayer Rules » Thu May 14, 2009 12:17 pm

Lester has a career ERA of 4.07 and a career WHIP of 1.41 - yet he came into this year being mentioned as a CY candidate???!?

This year he's sporting a 6.31/1.57 and he's still being mentioned as a CY candidate. As horrible as he's been, his WHIP is just a bit higher than his career norm.

I guess I'm not sophisticated enough to understand why he's considered the second coming. Maybe it's because he had cancer and he's still playing? That's a great story, and I'm happy for him, but it doesn't change the fact that he's a mediocre pitcher.

Phil Hughes has done nothing but get bombed start after start but prior to his most recent start (when he 'surprisingly' got bombed again) he was among the most added players in fantasy. Playing for Boston or NY apparently really inflates a player's value - hence the comparison from my perspective. I really see very little difference between the two.

Lester's next start is against SEA, one of the most pathetic offensive teams in baseball. I'd expect him to dominate the Mariners at one of the most pitcher-friendly parks in Safeco, as even less-heralded pitchers have done this year.

By the same token I wouldn't be surprised at all to see him get lifted after allowing 8 runs in 4 innings - that's what mediocre pitchers do.
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Re: What's wrong with Lester?

Postby Curtis Pride » Thu May 14, 2009 12:27 pm

Slayer Rules wrote:Lester has a career ERA of 4.07 and a career WHIP of 1.41 - yet he came into this year being mentioned as a CY candidate???!?

I guess I'm not sophisticated enough to understand why he's considered the second coming.


You said it.

Take a look at some of the other elite pitchers and what their stats were like when they were in the majors.

In the second half last year, he had a 2.95 ERA and 1.20 WHIP. His K/9 and BB/9 were dramatically improved in the second half last year.

His K rate has improved even more, and his BB rate has also improved. Really, the only thing that's hurt him this year is home runs (He's given up homers on 17.5% of his flyballs this year compared to his and the league average of about 10%).

He's also got a BABIP of .395 compared to his and the league average of about .310. Finally, he's also been screwed with a LOB % of only 65%. Also, well below his and the normal league average.

His peripherals are very strong and getting better. He's had bad luck.

He and Nolasco are two of the biggest screaming buys in baseball right now.
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Re: What's wrong with Lester?

Postby Slayer Rules » Sat May 16, 2009 12:21 am

Curtis Pride wrote:
Slayer Rules wrote:I guess I'm not sophisticated enough to understand why he's considered the second coming.


You said it.



Out-dueled by Jakubauskas tonight - there's just no cure for my state of utter ignorance
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